May 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Don]

8 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Nights being cool? The last few days have seen 10-15C minima.

Indeed, the nights have not been cool where I live!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 12.6C +1.0C above normal. Rainfall 5.4mm 9.4% of the monthly average

Interesting the month by day is the 9th warmest on record while by night and 21st warmest by night. This is from 1955 in our location.

 

Edited May 30, 2020 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

12.6c to the 29th

1.5 above the 61 to 90 average
1.0 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.6c to the 29th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

[reef]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield at 12.6C +1.0C above normal. Rainfall 5.4mm 9.4% of the monthly average

Interesting the month by day is the 9th warmest on record while by night and 21st warmest by night. This is from 1955 in our location.

 

The monthly anomaly is all from the maximum temperatures here:

Mean Max: 17.3C (+2.2C)
Mean Min: 7.0C (-0.2C)

The mean max is the third warmest for us back to 1980. 2018 (17.6C) and 2017 (17.4C) hold 1st and 2nd place, so we've had quite a run of warm maxima Mays.

Edited May 30, 2020 by reef

[seaside 60]

On 30/05/2020 at 09:54, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield at 12.6C +1.0C above normal. Rainfall 5.4mm 9.4% of the monthly average

Interesting the month by day is the 9th warmest on record while by night and 21st warmest by night. This is from 1955 in our location.

 

Would you put that down to prevailing easterlies or the lack of air pollution, clearer skies, meaning warmer days and cooler nights.

[damianslaw]

Finishing figure probably 12.8 or 12.9 degrees, then its a case of seeing if we have any downward corrections. In some recent months, we've seen some marked ones, up to 0.4 degrees. No sure reasons for the corrections, I think it might be underestimation of minimums, especially when there have been notably cold nights with high pressure overhead. We had such a spell in mid May, so we could see another marked downward correction. With this in mind a finish of 12.5 degrees could be the finishing mark.

Its been another very mild May, getting used to them now, we had a run of very mild/warm ones in 2016-2018. Not complaining, it's my favourite month, long may it continue.

[Summer Sun]

12.8c to the 30th

1.5 above the 61 to 90 average
1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.8c to the 30th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 12.7C +1.0C above normal. Rainfall 5.4mm 9.4% of the monthly average.

Will finish on 12.8C unless we gain another degree or two on present hi for today.

 

[Scorcher]

6 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Finishing figure probably 12.8 or 12.9 degrees, then its a case of seeing if we have any downward corrections. In some recent months, we've seen some marked ones, up to 0.4 degrees. No sure reasons for the corrections, I think it might be underestimation of minimums, especially when there have been notably cold nights with high pressure overhead. We had such a spell in mid May, so we could see another marked downward correction. With this in mind a finish of 12.5 degrees could be the finishing mark.

Its been another very mild May, getting used to them now, we had a run of very mild/warm ones in 2016-2018. Not complaining, it's my favourite month, long may it continue.

I'm wondering if Stonyhurst's high recent temperatures might prevent a big downward correction- it has done very well over the past week or so, particularly by day.

The bigger corrections are simply due to the official stations tending to be cooler than those used for the rolling mean- so it's hard to say until we get the final figure.

This is definitely the best 2nd half of May I can remember- even better than 2018 which was also excellent.

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, Scorcher said:

I'm wondering if Stonyhurst's high recent temperatures might prevent a big downward correction- it has done very well over the past week or so, particularly by day.

The bigger corrections are simply due to the official stations tending to be cooler than those used for the rolling mean- so it's hard to say until we get the final figure.

This is definitely the best 2nd half of May I can remember- even better than 2018 which was also excellent.

Its on a par with 1992 - second half. I remember 1992 being a slightly warmer version of 2018. However, we haven't seen exceptionally high temps this May (high 20s, 27+ apart from a few localised spots here and there), but many days with mid 20s nationwide (24-26). It will go down as a very good May overall, but not quite in the same league I fell as 1992, and 2018, perhaps more akin to 1989. 

[Metwatch]

Well 8-10 degrees isn't too far from average here. Maybe my perception of it. Feels cooler due to lower dewpoints and also used to the warmer nights beforehand. it was only winter like, few months ago as well. however the even warmer nights week to 2 back made this week feel cooler for me.

[Leo97t]

With a max of 24.0C, the second half of may 2020 is the warmest at Heathrow on record by a fair margin

[Roger J Smith]

Considerable downgrade to 12.5 as final value, 15.2 for 17th to 31st (was running closer to 15.5).

That makes the spring average 9.87 which ranks t-9th with 1952. 

[snowray]

Wow, that's a big downward correction!

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

Considerable downgrade to 12.5 as final value, 15.2 for 17th to 31st (was running closer to 15.5).

That makes the spring average 9.87 which ranks t-9th with 1952. 

15.2C is pretty high for the last 14 days of May. 

We've seen so many anomalous 2nd halves to months in the last couple of years - forecasting the monthly CET is really hard when that happens.

Or you could call it sour grapes for getting it wrong again 

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

Considerable downgrade to 12.5 as final value, 15.2 for 17th to 31st (was running closer to 15.5).

That makes the spring average 9.87 which ranks t-9th with 1952. 

I would happily accept that - with 12.5c my CET guess

[Don]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

Considerable downgrade to 12.5 as final value, 15.2 for 17th to 31st (was running closer to 15.5).

That makes the spring average 9.87 which ranks t-9th with 1952. 

Just 0.2C out for temperature, so not bad.

[Roger J Smith]

Quite a few CET forecasts in the vicinity of the outcome ... but only two of them were remotely close to the EWP (this lead group happens to include the lowest EWP forecast which will clearly be high score as the outcome looks like being 10-11 mm). The EWP scoring was posted back around mid-month and won't change as a result of the dry outcome (our lowest forecast as seen below is 30 mm).

J10 will confirm the CET scoring in the coming days but from the table of entries this would be the order of finish -- order of entries in brackets determines how they rank. (In the table, rank refers only to CET; check back a few pages to find the EWP scoring).

Rank __ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry)

 

_01 ___ 12.5 __ 80.0 _ Dog Toffee ( 09 ) _______

_02 ___ 12.5 __ 60.0 _ DiagonalRedLine ( 19 ) __

_03 ___ 12.5 __ 80.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 22 ) ________

_04 ___ 12.5 __ ----- _ Summer Sun ( 29 ) ______

_05 ___ 12.5 __ 77.0 _ Stationary Front ( 36 ) ___

_06 ___ 12.5 __ 72.0 _ mb018538 ( 44 ) _______ 

_07 ___ 12.5 __ 70.0 _ J10 ( 46 ) ____________

_08 ___ 12.4 _ 100.0 _ Weather 26 ( 03 ) ______

_09 ___ 12.6 __ 32.0 _ Earthshine ( 08 ) _______

_10 ___ 12.4 __ 61.7 _ SteveB ( 10 ) __________

_11 ___ 12.6 __ 65.0 _ NeilN ( 11 ) ____________

_12 ___ 12.6 __ 55.0 _ seaside60 ( 37 ) ________

_13 ___ 12.4 __ 30.0 _ The PIT ( 38 ) __________

_14 ___ 12.6 __ 63.0 _ Godber1 ( 45 ) _________

_15 ___ 12.6 __ 59.0 _ Born From The Void ( L1-3 )

[Dancerwithwings]

15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I would happily accept that - with 12.5c my CET guess

I’m sure most wasn’t expecting a correction of that amount and with my guess being at 12.7c I really thought I had it in the bag,

I believe in the over all I’m looking right over my shoulder now with you breathing down my neck

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

I’m sure most wasn’t expecting a correction of that amount and with my guess being at 12.7c I really thought I had it in the bag,

I believe in the over all I’m looking right over my shoulder now with you breathing down my neck

It’s my first go at this in 2020, easy game eh! I’m surprised how accurate I’ve been. If it carries on until December, I will submit these threads as a body of evidence to the Met and get a job in their long range forecast team!

[snowray]

After a very warm day yesterday I was expecting 12.7c myself, maybe even 12.8c.

[Roger J Smith]

34 minutes ago, snowray said:

After a very warm day yesterday I was expecting 12.7c myself, maybe even 12.8c.

Yep, the preliminary that we track ended up at 12.90, the adjusted value was 12.49. 

All those 17 or so days were scaled back to 16. 

I checked the values and while we had 10.4 after 15 days in our preliminary tracker, the actual value there was 9.9 C then 10.0 after 16 days. So they shaved off 0.4 from the first half and the second half equally. 

It is what it is, certainly a month more memorable for drought and sunshine than its temperature anomaly which was significant but the month ranked tied 48th warmest with eight other years. It was 10th warmest since 1970. 

Edited June 1, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[Daniel*]

It was the very cold nights earlier in month I think what was responsible for big downwards correction.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

At 12.5c May 2020 shares the same mean CET with May's:

1685

1686

1728

1737

1789

1829

1940

2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Leo97t]

17 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Yep, the preliminary that we track ended up at 12.90, the adjusted value was 12.49. 

All those 17 or so days were scaled back to 16. 

I checked the values and while we had 10.4 after 15 days in our preliminary tracker, the actual value there was 9.9 C then 10.0 after 16 days. So they shaved off 0.4 from the first half and the second half equally. 

It is what it is, certainly a month more memorable for drought and sunshine than its temperature anomaly which was significant but the month ranked tied 48th warmest with eight other years. It was 10th warmest since 1970. 

How exact a science is corrections - it always seems very rough and seemingly random