May 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 11.6C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall 4.2mm 7.3% of the monthly average.

[summer blizzard]

Gavin in the other realm is estimating 12.65C before corrections although its worth saying the Euro is cooler than the GFS in this regard.

 

[Don]

34 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Gavin in the other realm is estimating 12.65C before corrections although its worth saying the Euro is cooler than the GFS in this regard.

 

Come on GFS!

[damianslaw]

If want to keep an eye on regional rainfall totals week to week, the link to the government website below will tell you.

Rainfall and river flow: weekly reports for England - GOV.UK

WWW.GOV.UK

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Weekly reports on rainfall and river flow in England for the last 3 months.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/886863/Rainfall_and_river_flow_summary_13_to_19_May_2020.pdf

Very telling picture of the abrupt change mid March - look at the different that took place in NW England for example, 2 weeks of dry weather no rain, a further 2 weeks of dry weather in April. 

[damianslaw]

Slight chance we could just about breach or come close to the 13 degree mark by 31 May, given the outlook is sustained warmth from now on in until months end, however, northern parts of the CET zone will not receive the same degree of warmth, and we only have 8-9 days to work with. Expecting a finish in the mid 12s with downward correction anticipated - thanks to the very cold minimums of last week.

Edited May 23, 2020 by damianslaw

[summer blizzard]

Not really sure where this small chance of 13C comes from, there are not enough days from this starting point nor high enough uppers sustained.

[Roger J Smith]

I could now see 13 being possible, let's say we stay around 11.8 after today, then eight more days with mean of 17 would produce a result of 13.1 and that seems to be where the GFS is taking us. ECM might be closer to 12.5 however. Then there's the you know what. 

Could be a 12.7 to 12.9 finish in the works all things considered. 

[DAVID SNOW]

5 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I could now see 13 being possible, let's say we stay around 11.8 after today, then eight more days with mean of 17 would produce a result of 13.1 and that seems to be where the GFS is taking us. ECM might be closer to 12.5 however. Then there's the you know what. 

Could be a 12.7 to 12.9 finish in the works all things considered. 

12.5 is the top end, nothing higher imo.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 11.7C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall 4.9mm 8.5% of the monthly average

Spring rainfall up to 54.2mm just the driest on our records should move into 2nd place by the end of today possibly.

[Summer Sun]

11.8c to the 23rd

0.8 above the 61 to 90 average
0.5 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.9c to the 9th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

[cheese]

Mean at the Leeds university station is currently 12.3C. Given the current forecast shows every day above 21C with a couple of days of 25/26C, I expect a firmly above average month here, with the second consecutive month under 10mm. The grass is turning yellow.

Edited May 24, 2020 by cheese

[Don]

I suspect my 12.3C guess will end up a wee bit low now.

[Scorcher]

On 23/05/2020 at 23:55, DAVID SNOW said:

12.5 is the top end, nothing higher imo.

Brave statement looking at the outlook for this week. Every day is going to be well above average until the end of the month.

[Summer Sun]

11.9c to the 24th

0.9 above the 61 to 90 average
0.5 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.9c to the 9th & 24th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 11.8C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall 5.4mm 9.4% of the monthly average

Looking at the forecast temps for here we will end on 12.4C . Forecast temps tend to be lower than the actual temperatures so I would go for 12.6C to 12.8C. CET area tends be higher than Sheffield so that would give 13C to 13.2C a good shout.

Edited May 25, 2020 by The PIT

[snowray]

Looks like only 1 or 2mm of ppn to be added in the coming week, so very dry month, did anyone go that low in the competition? Every time that the models showed some rainfall it has simply not materialized.

As for the CET, with a week to go could still rise a fair bit, night time temps might be slightly lower than last week but diurnal max temps are likely to range from the low to mid 20's. How high into the 12s c can we go though? 

Edited May 25, 2020 by snowray

[feb1991blizzard]

2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Brave statement looking at the outlook for this week. Every day is going to be well above average until the end of the month.

yep - not being biased but my 13.2 isn't totally gone - probably is as far as bang on the nose but very near is not.

EDIT : and in fact some days are going to be 'scorcher's) - unfortunately!

Edited May 25, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[mb018538]

If we end at say 13c - where would that put this spring as a whole in the grand scheme of things? Anyone have the warmest CET springs to hand? Thanks!

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

If we end at say 13c - where would that put this spring as a whole in the grand scheme of things? Anyone have the warmest CET springs to hand? Thanks!

13.8C for the warmest is needed.

[Roger J Smith]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

If we end at say 13c - where would that put this spring as a whole in the grand scheme of things? Anyone have the warmest CET springs to hand? Thanks!

These are the ten warmest spring CET averages and what May 2020 needs to finish to tie each of them:

(Mar was 6.7 and Apr 10.4, these are simply averages of the three monthly CET rather than anything more precise based on 92 days)

 

Rank __ Spring __ CET avg __ May 2020 to tie needs 

01. ____ 2017 __10.27 ____ 13.7

02. ____ 2011 __10.23 ____ 13.6

03. ____ 1893 __10.20 ____ 13.5

04. ____ 2007 __10.10 ____ 13.2

05. ____ 1945 __10.07 ____ 13.1

06. ____ 2014 __10.00 ____ 12.9

07. ____ 1992 __ 9.93 ____ 12.7

08. ____ 1999 __ 9.90 ____ 12.6

09. ____ 1952 __ 9.87 ____ 12.5

10. ____ 1959 __ 9.83 ____ 12.4

Looks like maybe 6th warmest ?

 

[reef]

19 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

These are the ten warmest spring CET averages and what May 2020 needs to finish to tie each of them:

(Mar was 6.7 and Apr 10.4, these are simply averages of the three monthly CET rather than anything more precise based on 92 days)

 

Rank __ Spring __ CET avg __ May 2020 to tie needs 

01. ____ 2017 __10.27 ____ 13.7

02. ____ 2011 __10.23 ____ 13.6

03. ____ 1893 __10.20 ____ 13.5

04. ____ 2007 __10.10 ____ 13.2

05. ____ 1945 __10.07 ____ 13.1

06. ____ 2014 __10.00 ____ 12.9

07. ____ 1992 __ 9.93 ____ 12.7

08. ____ 1999 __ 9.90 ____ 12.6

09. ____ 1952 __ 9.87 ____ 12.5

10. ____ 1959 __ 9.83 ____ 12.4

Looks like maybe 6th warmest ?

 

And 5 of the top 7 warmest springs in the last 13 years.

[virtualsphere]

3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Rank __ Spring __ CET avg __ May 2020 to tie needs 

01. ____ 2017 __10.27 ____ 13.7

02. ____ 2011 __10.23 ____ 13.6

03. ____ 1893 __10.20 ____ 13.5

04. ____ 2007 __10.10 ____ 13.2

05. ____ 1945 __10.07 ____ 13.1

06. ____ 2014 __10.00 ____ 12.9

07. ____ 1992 __ 9.93 ____ 12.7

08. ____ 1999 __ 9.90 ____ 12.6

09. ____ 1952 __ 9.87 ____ 12.5

10. ____ 1959 __ 9.83 ____ 12.4

Looks like maybe 6th warmest ?

 

Nice to see 1893 hanging on in there - that one must have felt really warm at the time!

[JeffC]

23 hours ago, Don said:

I suspect my 12.3C guess will end up a wee bit low now.

I'm hoping for a downward correction

[Summer Sun]

12.0c to the 25th

1.0 above the 61 to 90 average
0.6 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.0c to the 25th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 11.9C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall Unchanged