May 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[snowray]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Well, I'm hoping Gavin is correct! 

Remember there's usually a correction down.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Well, I'm hoping Gavin is correct! 

is that because you went 12.2 - i need exactly 1 degree higher and i am still not ruling myself out believe it or not - if i did get it then i could be right among the early front runners in the annual.

[snowray]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Well, I'm hoping Gavin is correct! 

Remember there's usually a correction down at the end.

[snowray]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Well, I'm hoping Gavin is correct! 

Remember there's usually a correction down at the end.

[snowray]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Well, I'm hoping Gavin is correct! 

Remember there's usually a correction down at the end.

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Well, I'm hoping Gavin is correct! 

Remember there's usually a correction down at the end.

[feb1991blizzard]

I take it there's a downward correction at the end then!!

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Well, I'm hoping Gavin is correct! 

Remember there's usually a correction down at the end.

[snowray]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I take it there's a downward correction at the end then!!

 I have no idea why that was posted so many times, kept showing error when I was trying to post...

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

 I have no idea why that was posted so many times, kept showing error when I was trying to post...

Best thing to do in that situation is - once it gives you the error first time, copy the text, then go to the thread again by way of reload, then it might already be there, if not just re-paste it in a new post.

[damianslaw]

A warm last third to May will probably mean the final figure is somewhere in the low 12s, possibly just nudging into the high 11s thanks to downward corrections, and the north of the CET zone seeing some cooler weather at times.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 10.8C +0.4C above normal. Rainfall 0.9mm 1.6% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

11.0c to the 19th

0.2 above the 61 to 90 average
0.1 below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.9c to the 9th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

[Don]

On 19/05/2020 at 16:31, feb1991blizzard said:

is that because you went 12.2 - i need exactly 1 degree higher and i am still not ruling myself out believe it or not - if i did get it then i could be right among the early front runners in the annual.

I went for 12.3C, so yes that's why I hope Gavin is correct   However, I think I read somewhere that there is a downward correction at the end of the month that we must not forget! 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Don said:

I went for 12.3C, so yes that's why I hope Gavin is correct   However, I think I read somewhere that there is a downward correction at the end of the month that we must not forget! 

yes - should be on around 11.4 tomorrow then 11.6 /7 by friday - then another few days of only slight rises / stagnation then rises next monday onwards again but negated by the fact that that its near the end of month - even so IF MODELLING IS CORRECT - i say about 12.5-12.7 before corrections but 13 not completely out of the question if those 22 max's next week turn into 26-28c max's like they eventually did today.

[Don]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

yes - should be on around 11.4 tomorrow then 11.6 /7 by friday - then another few days of only slight rises / stagnation then rises next monday onwards again but negated by the fact that that its near the end of month - even so IF MODELLING IS CORRECT - i say about 12.5-12.7 before corrections but 13 not completely out of the question if those 22 max's next week turn into 26-28c max's like they eventually did today.

Yes, I agree that 13C is not out of the question just yet and wouldn't be at all surprised if those 22C maxes next week do indeed become 26-28 maxes, in which case it will be game on for you!

[summer blizzard]

The mean high being west of the UK in the final days means 13C is extremely unlikely as we drag in cooler uppers regardless of whether cyclonic or not for the final days of the month.

[Summer Sun]

11.3c to the 20th

0.5 above the 61 to 90 average
0.2 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.9c to the 9th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

[mb018538]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

11.3c to the 20th

0.5 above the 61 to 90 average
0.2 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.9c to the 9th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

Up she goes....another 0.2-0.3c will go on today too  

Now....if we could end around 12.5c that’d be perfect!  

[Roger J Smith]

EWP update -- 7 mm by 19th, no higher than 10 mm now and only about 10-15 mm more predicted, so very likely to come in below our driest forecast of 30 mm from the person who should know, the PIT our daily rainfall updater. 

CET looks to me like it will reach about 12.6 to 12.8 then fall back slightly at the end with the usual type of adjustment could finish around 12.3 to 12.6. 

If so, this spring would perhaps make the top ten ... with 6.7 and 10.4 for March and April, 12.6 would lead to an average of 9.90 whereas tenth place currently is held by 1959 at 9.83, ninth place currently is 1952 at 9.87 with eighth place 1999 at 9.90. 

If spring 2020 makes the top ten, it will join winter 2019-20 which finished 10th, and this would be the sixth time two seasons in a year (that starts like our contest in the previous December), and the third time two consecutive seasons in a year, are ranked top ten -- 2007 had the same two seasons at 5th (tied) and 4th warmest. So we cannot beat that average even with a first place finish which would require 13.7 C to tie and 13.8 for solo first. 2006 had the sixth warmest summer followed by the warmest autumn, that average beats the 2007 duo and we cannot beat that one either (for average ranking). 2011 produced second warmest spring and autumn which is the best average for any two seasons in one year. (Summer 2011 was way down the list tied for 260th warmest, or 94th coldest, with eight other years). 2014 also scored in spring and autumn (6th and 3rd) and had a better summer at tied 82nd warmest (the winter of 2013-14 was 14th warmest also).  Finally 1959 had two with tenth warmest spring and tied 8th warmest autumn, and in between those managed tied 25th warmest summer as well. (winter 1959 only ranked middle of the table). 

This is the full table of top ten seasons ... note that 2006-07 produced four in a row to produce a sort of a "Tiger slam" situation** since no year has managed to produce four in a row (yet) ... : 

Rank ____ Winter ____ CET avg ___ Spring __ CET avg ___ Summer __ CET avg ___ Autumn __ CET avg

01. ____ 1868-69 __ 6.77 _____ 2017 __10.27 ____ 1976 __ 17.77 ____ 2006 __ 12.63

02. ____ 2015-16 __ 6.67 _____ 2011 __10.23 ____ 1826 __ 17.60 ____ 2011 __ 12.43

03. ____ 1833-34 __ 6.53 _____ 1893 __10.20 ____ 1995 __ 17.37 ____ 2014 __ 12.07

04. ____ 1988-89 __ 6.50 _____ 2007 __10.10 ____ 2003 __ 17.33 ____1730, 1731 _ 11.80

05. ____ 1974-75 __ 6.43 _____ 1945 __10.07 ____ 2018 __ 17.27 ____ (tie see above)

05t ____ 2006-07 __ 6.43 (tie 5th) _________________________________

06. _______________________ 2014 __10.00 ____ 2006 __ 17.23 ___ 1729,1818 _ 11.60 

07. ____ 1685-86 __ 6.33 _____ 1992 __ 9.93 ____ 1846 __ 17.10 ___ (tie see above)

08. ____ 1989-90 __ 6.23 _____ 1999 __ 9.90 ____ 1983 __ 17.07 ___ 1949,59,78 _ 11.53

09. ____ 1795-96 __ 6.20 _____ 1952 __ 9.87 ____ 1947 __ 17.03 ___ (tie see above)

10. ____ 2019-20 __ 6.17 _____ 1959 __ 9.83 ____ 1933 __ 17.00 ___ (tie see above)

_____________________________________________________________

** If you don't follow golf, nobody has won all four "modern" majors in the same calendar year but Tiger Woods did win all four consecutively although not in the same calendar year back in 2000-2001. Bobby Jones won all four of the tournaments considered to be majors in 1930 (when the U.S. and British Amateur titles were included and the Masters had not yet begun, that being in 1934, so after that the Grand Slam was considered to be the Masters, U.S. Open, British Open and PGA, all professional tournaments). 

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(I checked the following and edited more information into a list of consistently warm four-season efforts, in terms of beating a certain standard these are the top years in that regard ... two different winners for beating a given rank four times 2005 has displaced my first candidate 1990, while for the best averages 2014 with surprisingly 1779 in second and thrrd place for the two systems). Rank in the table is established by the order of "least extreme" and where that is tied, by better average (as for example 1990 vs 2004). The table is now backed up by an excel ranking statistic that establishes there are no other years that qualify.

rank _YEAR ___ Winter _ Spring _ Summer _ Autumn __ least extreme __ average

_01 _ 2005 _____ t-50 ____ t-50 ____ t-51 ____ t-11 _____ 51 ______ 40.5 (9)

_02 _ 1990 _____ 8th _____ t-16 ____ t-56 ____ t-48 _____56 ______ 32.0 (4)

_03 _ 2004 _____ t-56 ____ t-35 ____ t-49 ____ t-23 _____ 56 ______ 40.8 (10)

_04 _ 1779 _____ t-29 ____ t-11 ____ t-20 _____t-61 _____61 ______ 30.3 (2)

_05 _ 2017 _____ t-41 ____ 1st _____t-62 _____t-32 _____62 _______34.0 (t5)

_ 06 _ 1989 ______ 4 _____ t-63 ____ t-34 ____ t-35 _____63 ______ 34.0 (t5)

_ 07 _ 1921 _____ t-38 ____ t-68 ___ t-51 _____ t-73 _____73 ______ 57.5 (19)

_ 08 _ 1822 _____ 19 ______ t-18 ___ t-77 _____t-79 ____ 79 _______48.3 (14)

_ 09 _ 2014 _____ 14 _______ 6 ____ t-82 _____ 4th _____82 ______ 26.5 (1)

_ 10 _ 1999 _____t-38 ______ 8 ____ t-82 _____ t-14 _____82 ______ 35.5 (7)

_ 11 _ 1834 ______3 _______ 46 ____t-56 _____ t-86 _____86 ______ 47.8 (13) 

_ 12 _ 2003 ____ t-91 ______t-11 ____ 4 ______ t-70 _____ 91 ______ 44.0 (11)

_ 13 _ 1995 _____t-15 _____ t-92 ____ 2 ______ 13 ______ 92 ______ 30.5 (3)

_ 14 _ 1949 _____t-29 _____ t-92 ____t-31 _____ t-8 ______92 ______ 40.0 (8)

_ 15 _ 1994 ____ t-94 ______ t-84 ____t-56 ____ t-23 _____ 94 ______ 64.3 (25)

_ 16 _ 1846 ____ t-20 ______ t-98 _____ 7 _____t-86 _____ 98 ______ 52.8 (t17)

_ 17 _ 2002 ____ t-42 _____ t-21 ____ t-99 ____ t-25 _____ 99 _______46.8 (12)

_ 18 _ 1736 ____ t-71 _____t-102 ____t-20 ____ t-63 _____102 _______64.0 (24)

_ 19 _ 2019 _____ 18 _______35 ____ 46 _____t-104 ____ 104 ______ 50.8 (16)

_ 20 _ 2000 ____ t-40 _____ t-50 ____t-106 ____t-48 _____106 _______61.0 (22)

_ 21 _ 1732^____t-94 _____ t-90 ____t-106 ____t-63 _____ 106 ______ 88.3 (--)^ 

_ 22 _ 2016 ______2 ______t-117 ___ t-40 _____ 37 _____ 117 ______ 49.0 (15)

_ 23 _ 1943 ____ t-15 _____ t-18 ___ t-122 ____t-120 ____ 122 ______ 68.8 (27)

_ 24 _ 1828 _____t-24 _____ t-56 ___ t-128 ___ t-57 _____ 128 ______ 66.3 (26)

_ 25 _ 2018 _____t-130 _____t-41 ____ 5 _____ t-35 _____130 ______ 52.8 (t17)

_ xx _ 2006 ____ t-152 _____t-117 ____ 6 ______ 1 ______152 ______ 69.0 (28)

_ xx _ 1997 _____t-165 _____ t-16 ___t-25 ____ t-30 _____165*______ 59.0 (20)

_ xx _ 2007 ______ 5 _______ 4 ____ t-185 ____t-48 _____185* _____  60.5 (21)

_ xx _ 1959 _____ 206 _____ 10 _____t-25 ____ t-8 _____ 206* ______ 62.5 (23)

* The last three entries are only ranked for their average (end of row). These are

not the next three ranked for least extreme after 25th place 2018, approximately

they would rank 40th, 50th and 60th. 

^ 1732 is ranked only for its least extreme value, its average would rank around 40th. 

 

_____________________________________________________________

At this point I have checked all plausible years and found quite a few more years that beat 1828 for average (66.3) or 2018 for least extreme (they have no rank worse than 130th), so this now seems to be the top 25 or so both ways you look at this record. To make the list, 2020 will have to outperform one of those limit cases if not both of them. . I have added what data kept top seasonal winners out of the four-seasons list (see 21st place 2018 and 20th place 1828 for the limiting values of 130th rank and 66.3 four-season average rank)

 ... 1976 only managed t-150 for spring, that led to an average of 79th.

... 1959 was out after winter finished 206th. Using winter 1960's rank of t-100th, the good ranks of the three other 1959 seasons (10th, t-25th, t-8th) averaged 35.7 so that was an asterisk case for a top ten "year" just relying on two months rather than one from a different calendar year. However, because 1828 qualified ahead of 2018, 1959 is now in the table too because it has a better average than 1828 and also 1994. I show the rank as xx since it is only ranked for that average. The least extreme rank is probably closer to 60th rather than 23rd. 1997 also made the list on average and is unranked for least extreme. 1997* (using winter 1997-98 t-12) is a much more viable contender with an average of 20.8.

... 2007 was eliminated by its summer ranking (t-182) and 2006 had no chance going in with winter at t-152, then spring t-117, but using the same method as 1959-60 that average (to end of winter 2007) gave 2006* an average of 32.3. ... 2007 also given conditional status for its average rather than the least extreme value. 

... Note that 2018* (using winter 2019) has an average of only 24.8, which would beat 2014 (using winter 2015 did not improve that year).

... Dec 2010 pretty much ended any chance for 2011 as that winter was t-250, but using the milder winter of 2011-12 and the three other ranks still gets 2011* nowhere because its summer rank was even worse at t-260. I think spring to autumn 2011 may win some sort of contest for biggest V-shaped trend curve. 

___________________________________________________

 

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

11.5c to the 21st

0.7 above the 61 to 90 average
0.3 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.9c to the 9th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 11.4C +0.7C above normal. Rainfall 3.7mm 6.4% of the monthly average

[The PIT]

Still on for the driest spring on record here.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP hasn't picked up much, 9 mm now through Thursday 21st and perhaps 1-2 mm added on Friday 22nd. Most of the rain from the ocean storm fell in Scotland and parts of Ireland. This all means the strong possibility of a top five finish for May 2020 in the EWP driest ranked months of May (1766 to present). This is the top five at present:

1844 __ 7.8 mm

1896 __12.0 mm

1991 __13.7 mm

1795 __15.7 mm

1836 __16.0 mm

So with very little indicated from now to end of month, we could join this list, any place but first seems up for grabs.

As I noted in the June contest data, June 1991 is rather remarkable in that, at 8th coldest, it is the only example of any month in the 1981-2020 records that has a higher rank than the warmest month of the same name (which for June is also the worst performance in that regard of all twelve months, as 2003, 2018 are tied 18th warmest, it was May 1992 that holds second place in terms of least extreme modern month, at 6th place). 

December was in the same situation from 2010 to 2015 then warmest December nipped second coldest December and restored the usual situation in recent times.

Besides these two cases, the only other recent (since 1980) months to be anywhere near top ten coldest would be Feb 1986 (5th coldest), Mar 2013 (tied 12th coldest), and May 1996 (tied 13th coldest). The other months have done quite poorly in reaching even top 30 coldest territory. This is the futility list, first for 1981 to present, then reaching a bit further back, 1941 to 1980. 

Jan 1985 and 1987 were tied 41st coldest, before that of course Jan 1963 took fifth coldest.

Feb 1986 already mentioned at 5th coldest, Feb 1947 was coldest.

Mar 2013 already mentioned at tied 12th coldest, 1962 had been tied 14th coldest until it came along (now tied 15th).

Apr 1986 tied 18th coldest, and was colder than any April in the period 1941 to 1980. Apr 1941 had tied with a number of other years at 31st coldest (now tied 32nd).

May 1996 already mentioned at tied 13th coldest, once again the interval 1941 to 1980 failed to produce anything colder, also similarly April 1941 had been tied 21st coldest and slipped to tied 22nd coldest after 1996. 

June 1991 as mentioned was 8th coldest but June 1972 was tied 2nd coldest. 

July 1988 was tied 35th coldest, while 1965 managed a tie for 11th coldest. 

Aug 1985 was tied 53rd coldest, while 1956 was tied 5th coldest.

Sept 1986 was tied 14th coldest, while 1952 was 6th coldest.

Oct 1992 tied with 1974 (at 7.8 C) in a group that were tied 26th coldest. 

Nov 1985 was tied 28th while 1952 was tied 31st coldest. 

Dec 2010 as mentioned was 2nd coldest, before that 1981 had been tied 8th coldest; in the interval 1941 to 1980, 1950 was solo 20th coldest (ranked 18th coldest until 1981 and 19th until 2010). 

So actually the last forty years have done almost the same sort of business in the cold month department as 1941-80. The average rank of the coldest month in recent times (since 1981) is 21st coldest while 1941-80 had an average at their times of 14th and now 15th. The average for comparison of the interval 1901-40 is 11th. The drop in production recently is most evident in summer. 1901-40 lagged in December where they only managed an extreme of t-27th at the time, now tied for 30th coldest (that was 1933 at 1.6). 

Extending this data into the period ahead (let's say 2021-60) the linear trend suggests that we will average 25th to 30th coldest months and perhaps see one or two top ten coldest months. That would be less likely if (a) AGW and/or natural warming trends proved to be exponential, or (b) an unforeseen colder spell set in like the Maunder minimum. Just by comparison there, the interval 1671-1710 managed an average rank (eventually, obviously all of these were coldest in series then) of 2nd coldest, the only month not top four coldest in that interval being February (1684) which stands 6th, so that month we actually beat the Maunder with our recent value in 1986 although Maunder means are rounded to nearest 0.5 so the margin of 0.1 is inconclusive. The years between 1659 and 1670 were not as cold which is why I set the extreme interval at 1671-1710, this snagged a tied coldest April in 1701, but before that the coldest April had been (now) 9th coldest 1688. So for years starting with 16, the average cold rank is closer to 3rd than 2nd. 

 

 

 

Edited May 23, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

11.7c to the 22nd

0.8 above the 61 to 90 average
0.5 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.9c to the 9th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st