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May 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

10.5c to the 14th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average
0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.9c to the 9th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
42 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

10.5c to the 14th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average
0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.9c to the 9th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

With another slight drop possible today, it will need the second half of May to average 14C to get above 12C, and average of 16C to get above 13C. The latter scenario is just about possible if a heatwave emerges next weekend, but I'd say 12C-ish looks a fair bet for the month right now. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

12c-ish finish sounds good to me!

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
4 hours ago, snowray said:

12c-ish finish sounds good to me!

Aye, that would be bob on !

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

10.4c to the 15th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.9c to the 9th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

10.4c to the 16th

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average
0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.9c to the 9th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

This looks like the low point now for this month, a double bottom, or triple bottom as the Chartist's would say, a bit like some of the bank shares recently.

How far can we rise though? I calculated that we would require in the second half of the month 10 days of 13c and 5 days of 14c just to get back up to 11.8 by months end. So only some sort of heatwave would make the CET go into the 12's c.

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 10C -0.1C below average. Rainfall unchanged at 0.9mm 1.6% of the monthly average.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
2 hours ago, snowray said:

This looks like the low point now for this month, a double bottom, or triple bottom as the Chartist's would say, a bit like some of the bank shares recently.

How far can we rise though? I calculated that we would require in the second half of the month 10 days of 13c and 5 days of 14c just to get back up to 11.8 by months end. So only some sort of heatwave would make the CET go into the 12's c.

Rest of the month looks warm. Next week especially so. I think we will be above 12c.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Looks fairly warm for the rest of the month, a mean of 15 C for the last fourteen days would leave the CET near 12.5 C, 14 means close to 12.0. A finish near or just above 12 C seems possible. EWP has not changed since my last report, still stuck at 6 mm, the ten day projection adds only about 15 mm at most, and limited time or opportunities for further increases 27th to 31st -- still comfortable with the 30 mm provisional for advanced scoring estimates. 

My routine is to open CET threads on the 19th in time for the morning of 20th UK time, so that means June opens on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
12 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Looks fairly warm for the rest of the month, a mean of 15 C for the last fourteen days would leave the CET near 12.5 C, 14 means close to 12.0. A finish near or just above 12 C seems possible. EWP has not changed since my last report, still stuck at 6 mm, the ten day projection adds only about 15 mm at most, and limited time or opportunities for further increases 27th to 31st -- still comfortable with the 30 mm provisional for advanced scoring estimates. 

My routine is to open CET threads on the 19th in time for the morning of 20th UK time, so that means June opens on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning. 

Pretty sure it will be over 12 - provided ECM latest data verifies, theres a good few 15c+ days in Birmingham projected by the BBC location forecast charts.

Still don't think 13c is completely out the equation

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

10.6c to the 17th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average
0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.9c to the 9th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

In fact Roger on the current data 12.5+ looking pretty nailed on - keeps changing every 6 hours mind so not putting my neck on the line although would punt on that now if the compo started at this time, probably wouldn't down my 13+ guess all that much, maybe a few ticks.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield back up to 10.2C bang on average rainfall unchanged at next to nothing.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
22 minutes ago, Weather26 said:

Which means our 1956 record for the driest May ever is about to go here in Sheffield! 

Still 13 days to go yet, and some rain is forecast tonight and tomorrow morning, followed by possible thundery outbreaks on Thursday and persistant rain on Friday.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 10.5C +0.2C above average. Rainfall 0.9mm 1.6% of the average rainfall.

At the moment for spring we are on 50.2mm. The record low is 55.3mm in 1990 the next lowest 66mm.in 2011. So a good chance of 2nd driest ever in Sheffield a small chance of the driest. The driest May has a chance of being broken at 11.2mm but still a long way to go.

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

10.7c to the 18th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average
0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 11.9c to the 9th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Gavin in the other realm estimating 12.32C to the 30th.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Gavin in the other realm estimating 12.32C to the 30th.

Im estimating a couple of ticks higher

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

I'm thinking 12.2c

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
4 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Im estimating a couple of ticks higher

Well, I'm hoping Gavin is correct! 

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