May 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Duncan McAlister]

11.4 for me please, sorry about the very late guess

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Been and am unwell last few days, still bedridden, however am improving now.

 

11.4 c. And 75mm

 

BFTP

[davehsug]

On 01/05/2020 at 21:50, Daniel* said:

Pull yourself together! 

At my age I do well to remember to get up in the morning!

[Roger J Smith]

I notice a lot of people apologizing for late entries, no need to do that as we know there will be a certain number of them and don't plan anything in terms of scoring or entry tables around the concept of all on-time entries; it allows everyone to participate rather than having a cutoff that you miss and then you're out (that is actually the end of the 3rd in practical terms). The late penalties are not meant to be punitive in nature, rather to protect the on-time entrants from any guidance shifts that you might detect a few days into the month. Anyone who does enter late can usually negate their penalty with a somewhat more informed forecast (not always the case, I've seen months that go the other way with a false lead offered up on the 2nd and 3rd). So I will be incorporating the latest entries, the one-day lates are already in the table of entries which you'll find back around end of April 30th posting. 

 

 

[Roger J Smith]

11 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Surprised 2017 was so warm in the second half, i recall it being warm but not exceptional. 2018 is probably about right.

It really shows the consistency of 1833.

Just out of interest, which set of dates do you prefer to use for first and second half of a 31-day month? 

I sort of prefer 1-16 and 17-31 but no real reason for that. 1-15 and 16-31 lines up a bit more evenly with the 30-day months.

Also the leap year Febs have this same issue, so there I would prefer 1-15 and 16-29 as the halves except that if you went 1-14 and 15-29 it would line up with all the regular Febs. 

(open question not just for SB to comment)

[summer blizzard]

I prefer 1-16 in 31 day months.

[Summer Sun]

9.8c to the 2nd

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.9c to the 1st
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Some pretty cool weather forecast ahead with northern blocking afoot.  Won’t affect me too much stuck in bed but as always ‘if only it was Jan’ thoughts.  Am Keeping a keen eye on this year and the pressure patterns....deep minima continues but with cycle 25 trying to crackle in

 

BFTP

[Summer Sun]

10.0c to the 3rd

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 10.0c to the 3rd
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

[Summer Sun]

10.4c to the 4th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 10.4c to the 4th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

[Summer Sun]

10.4c to the 5th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 10.4c to the 4th & 5th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 10C +1.1C above average. Rainfall 0.6mm 1% of the monthly average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 9.9C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[DAVID SNOW]

Hadley stuck at 10.4, clearly an error.

[feb1991blizzard]

18 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Hadley stuck at 10.4, clearly an error.

No - its been updated - must have been lower yesterday than the models said.

[Summer Sun]

10.4c to the 6th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 10.4c to the 4th, 5th & 6th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

[DAVID SNOW]

35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No - its been updated - must have been lower yesterday than the models said.

No, its stuck.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

No, its stuck.

Its not an error - Gavin has posted it now -  it is the official figure.

[snowray]

So is it stuck then.....or not?

[DAVID SNOW]

51 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its not an error - Gavin has posted it now -  it is the official figure.

Care to explain why it has not changed at all in 3 days?

Tuesday and Wednesday were both below 10c in the CET zone.

The official figure posted is wrong.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, DAVID SNOW said:

Care to explain why it has not changed at all in 3 days?

Tuesday and Wednesday were both below 10c in the CET zone.

The official figure posted is wrong.

It may not be correct as you and me mean correct, but it is not an error as in a typo or the like as they have kept updating the date, that is the official figure released.

[Man With Beard]

Tricky month coming up for temperature predictions. The warm spell of the next three days is likely to be cancelled out (or more) by the cold spell of the subsequent three days. Likely to be around 11C by mid-month? Thereafter, one would expect a further warm up but how much? Anything 12C to 13C looks in the running right now, I think.

[damianslaw]

A classic spring switcharound about to occur. What will the cet mean difference for Saturday and Sunday be I wonder? Many central areas of England will see a marked maxima drop low 20s to barely scraping double digits in 24 hrs. Somewhere such as Lincoln could see a 13 degree drop from 22 degrees to max of 9 degrees. The upcoming warm spell will be more than cancelled out by a lengthier cool spell which looks like lasting until Thursday at least thanks to some very cool nights under a cold high.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP will be relatively dry for first half, 4 mm to date, 10-15 mm showing on 10-day model projections, then perhaps 15-25 mm in the rest of the GFS run (to 23rd). That would take us to around 30-45 mm quite late into the month although with a signal for a more unsettled pattern developing. Almost any outcome still seems possible -- this could turn out drier than indicated, or the trend could get very unsettled late in the month. 

Would agree that CET is going to be pushed down from around 11 C on Saturday to around 10 C within 2-3 days, then will start a slow climb again. Probably well into the mid to high 11's by 20th. There again, no real signal of warmth near end of the GFS run so quite possibly a very slow climb if any. Would say 11.5 to 12.5 range looking a bit more promising than either side but certainly no forecasts (almost) really blown up yet. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 10.1C +1.0C above normal. Rainfall 0.6mm 1% of the monthly average.

A big rise tomorrow coming and possible again for Saturday then a steady drop all next week.