May 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

(a) CET May averages and other statistics

___ table includes all CET values for the period 1981 to 2019 ___

 

21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780)

20.0 ... 15th (1833) earliest 20.0 CET day.

15.1 ... (1833)
13.9 ... (1848)
13.8 ... (1758, 1788)
13.7 ... (1808)
13.6 ... (1727, 1992)

13.5 ... (1784, 1868, 1919, 1947)

13.4 ... 2008 (tied with 1726, 1952)

13.2 ... 2017, 2018

13.1 ... 1998

13.0 ... 1989

12.9 ... 1999

12.6 ... 1990, 2001

12.5 ... 2016

12.3 ... 2006

12.2 ... 2011, 2014

12.1 ... 2000, 2003, 2004, 2009 

12.0 ... ... ... 2001-2019 average 

11.9 ... 1988, 2007 _ _ and 1990-2019 average, also 1991-2019 average (converging on future 1991-2020 average)

11.8 ... 2002

11.7 ... 1981-2010 average and 2012

11.6 ... 1982, 1995

11.5 ... 1997

11.4 ... 1993, 2005 .. 1901-2000 average

11.3 ... 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average

11.2 ... 1981 ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-2019 average of all data (11.23)

11.1 ... 1986, 2019 ... 1801-1900 average

10.9 ... 1985

10.8 ... 1991, 2015

10.7 ... 1994, 2010 ... 1659-1700 average

10.4 ... 2013

10.3 ... 1983

10.1 ... 1987

  9.9 ... 1984

  9.1 ... 1996 tied 13th coldest with two other years, the coldest in recent years)

  8.9 ... 1879, 1885, 1902 tied 5th coldest

  8.8 ... 1855 was 4th coldest

  8.7 ... 1817 was 3rd coldest

  8.6 ... 1740 was 2nd coldest

  8.5 ... 1698 was coldest May

 

Extreme cold

 3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877

 2.9 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861)

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Post your May CET forecasts before end of day Thursday 30th of April to avoid time penalty, or in first three days of May with increasing late penalties.

______________________________________

 

(b) England and Wales precip (EWP) contest 

Note: this is verified against the Hadley version of EWP (1766 to present),  

The contest asks you to predict the average England and Wales precip in mm. These are the extreme values and recent averages. 

 

151.8 ___ max 1766-2018 (in 1773)

142.4 ___ second wettest in 1782 

140.7 ___ third wettest in 1967

118.4 ___ maximum 1981-2018 (2007) __ (115.2 in 1983)

 63.6 ___ average 1981-2010

 63.1 ___ average 1990-2019

 13.7 ___ minimum 1981-2018 (1991)

 07.9 ___ (min 1766-2018) in 1844 _ 12.0 in 1896 the only May drier than 1991.

 ________________________________________________________________

Recent ... 2019 _ 46.0 mm ... ... 2018 _ 51.9 mm ... ... 2017 _ 65.0 mm ... ... 2016 _ 61.7 mm ... ... 2015 _ 86.6 mm ... ...

... ... ... 2014 _ 102.8 mm ... ... 2013 _ 73.9 mm ... ... 2012 _ 57.4 mm ... ... 2011 _ 46.5 mm ... ... 2010 _ 38.3 mm ... ... 

Enter the EWP contest in the same post as your CET temperature forecast. Scores are by rank order out of 10.0, 0.2 penalties per day late. Same deadlines apply as CET contest. 

 

... Good luck in both contests ... 

[Lettucing Gutted]

Rest in pieces 'spring' 2020!  17.5C    Last sub 9C May in 1902.  Last sub 10C May in 1996.  Last sub 11C May in 2015.

200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage!

[CheesepuffScott]

Warm and dry for the first 3rd with a continuation of what we are seeing now.. something a little cooler and showery mid month, and very warm / hot in the final week with LP to the west getting stuck against HP over Europe, and a thundery breakdown leading to most of the month's rainfall total.. 

12.8°C and 70.9mm please

[Weather26]

12.4C And 100mm-I think we're about to see a bit of a repeat of 2007-very dry April followed by a wet May.

Edited April 19, 2020 by Weather26

[Bobd29]

12.3 and 92mm for me plse 

[B87]

10.9c and 115mm  - a cold washout.

Edited April 20, 2020 by B87

[brmbrmcar]

12.9c and 67mm please.

[JeffC]

12.1C and 48 mm please

[Earthshine]

12.6C and 32mm please

[DogToffee]

12.5*C and 80mm please.

[SteveB]

12.4c and 61.7mm please. 

[NeilN]

12.6c and 65mm please. We'll be gradually released from lockdown but greeted with the rain! 

[Weather26]

That would be just our luck that! The moment lockdown ends, it will tip it down! 

[virtualsphere]

12.7C and 48mm please

[Polar Gael]

13.0°C and 42.2mm for me please. 

[Don]

23 hours ago, Weather26 said:

That would be just our luck that! The moment lockdown ends, it will tip it down! 

You just know it!

[Dancerwithwings]

On 21/04/2020 at 20:12, Weather26 said:

That would be just our luck that! The moment lockdown ends, it will tip it down! 

Could be snowing by then

[summer blizzard]

12.7C, 60mm.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

12.9 C and 78.4 mm please 

[Leo97t]

13.1C and 80mm

[Twilight]

13.4c

62mm

thanks

[Roger J Smith]

Expect it to be a backward trend for a month that usually warms up, so going with 11.5 C and 103.5 mm rain. Some near record cold possible late in the month. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

12.5*C and 60mm rainfall. Cheers. 

Generally leaning towards a very warm month, though I do feel late May could bring a big cool down with some rain, sleet, hail and hill snow.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

On 21/04/2020 at 20:12, Weather26 said:

That would be just our luck that! The moment lockdown ends, it will tip it down! 

18 months away then! this is for May 2020, full lockdown, my prediction 12.9, 31mm

[Dancerwithwings]

12.7c cheers