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Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards


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Woke up this morning, expecting some small amount of rain here in 'Death Valley' (Reigate). Looks like I put the patio stuff away last night for nothing. Apart from one night and day of rain two weeks ago it has not rained significantly here since 21 March.  

Cicadas are buzzing, heat haze over the brown wilting plants, and what's left of our pond is full of crows trying to cool off. Might have spotted some tumbleweed rolling down our road.   (Just kidding). ?

It is more humid today, so I'm hoping something will happen this evening. Anything. Please...

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I got this about 15-20 minutes ago from the London cell. I'm very shocked I got this.

Timing is key for Thursday - we've mentioned before how both the phasing and shape/characteristics of the mid/upper level trough will ultimately determine how many thunderstorms (if any) develop. Mode

My sister got this great pic from leith hill tower 

Posted Images

44 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Talk about a disappointment from the UK Weather! Hopefully we will have better luck next time. It's awful to think we could have been having something like this:

Screenshot 2020-05-18 at 08.00.46.png

Screenshot 2020-05-18 at 08.00.37.png

That’s the psychology of it all really - we were never and could never have had what the models were suggesting - it was never going to happen - the models just lied to us and we placed hope in the fact they might be telling the truth ??

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Can see it from Norwich, went up like a rocket and its evolving quickly, just seems pointless chasing unless it back builds far enough.

20200521_114207.jpg

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Greeny said:

Can see it from Norwich, went up like a rocket and its evolving quickly, just seems pointless chasing unless it back builds far enough.

20200521_114207.jpg

I took multiple pictures and this was the best one I could get. I enhanced the picture to make it a tad easier to see but you can just make out the anvil inbetween the two distant trees!

thunderstorm.png

And this is the picture without any enhancement

DSC00800.thumb.JPG.3bfd11b1f919233fa16a4785b2840228.JPG

Edited by Zak M
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Its just hilarious!!the places that were meant to see the highest risk of storms and lightning got nothing!!where as wales northwest england got a reasonable light show!!just cant make it up?

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I took multiple pictures and this was the best one I could get. I enhanced the picture to make it a tad easier to see but you can just make out the anvil inbetween the two distant trees!

thunderstorm.png

And this is the picture without any enhancement

DSC00800.thumb.JPG.3bfd11b1f919233fa16a4785b2840228.JPG

It's kind of a taster of what we would have had if the setup was further west and a better alignment of the ingredients. Explosive to say the least.

Having said that, sitting in the garden under a shady tree with this lovely warmth is damn nice. Its chosen the relaxing path rather than the excitement one!

Edited by Greeny
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2 minutes ago, Greeny said:

It's kind of a taster of what we would have had if the setup was further west and a better alignment of the ingredients. Explosive to say the least.

Having said that, sitting in the garden under a shady tree with this lovely warmth is damn nice. Its chosen the relaxing path rather than the excitement one!

Yep, it has absolutely exploded!

distantthunderstorm.png

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Posted (edited)

It seems as if the bulk of the activity will be further East, like Anglia and Kent. The issue with England (especially the South and Central), and why we rarely see properly 'severe' storms, is because by the time they've matured enough; they've pretty much reached the sea towards the East. 

What should have been a big give away about today was the timings of these storms. Even on Tuesday I was getting 11:00AM - 13:00PM timings, which is just far too early for any considerable maturity in terms of storm development. If it was a bit later in the afternoon, e.g. 15:00PM +, it could have been more viable. 

Update: Now my storm forecasts for 13:00 and 15:00PM have been removed from AccuWeather. Just 26°C and sun (I'm not complaining). 

Edited by Superstormuk
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Working around Peterborough this morning watching the very early development of those storms above me with a tiny sprinkle of rain, knew they would explode out that way. Storms seem to struggle I recent years to develope more readily further west. Or so it seems.

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The teasing little burger.. this popped up just to the south of me, sat24 showing a little back building of convective clouds and the likes.

20200521_120854.jpg

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Would not be surprised to see more backbuilding

Sea Breeze Convergence setting up down the East Coast

image?type=visual&region=gb
EN.SAT24.COM

Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Satellite Weather United Kingdom and Ireland, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in United Kingdom and Ireland - SAT24.com

 

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Definitely back-building now, can see more towering cumulus behind the main lot

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Just now, Mitch perrott said:

Is back building good for us or no?

Shows the storm can sustain itself & doesn't just collapse. It's good.

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29 minutes ago, shaky said:

Its just hilarious!!the places that were meant to see the highest risk of storms and lightning got nothing!!where as wales northwest england got a reasonable light show!!just cant make it up?

yep and I didnt hear a thing slept right through, yep people local to me reported thunder. 

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1 minute ago, Xanderp009 said:

could we see some down here

I'm not too sure mate. You could have a chance of importing some from France although the chances of this happening are very low.

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clear as a bell here now, looked so promising this morning.

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1 hour ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Talk about a disappointment from the UK Weather! Hopefully we will have better luck next time. It's awful to think we could have been having something like this:

Screenshot 2020-05-18 at 08.00.46.png

Screenshot 2020-05-18 at 08.00.37.png

But that's the thing bud, I've been on this forum for about 12 years (including a lost username) and it happens every single year - I used to pin all my hope on the models and be excited for days and not just for thunder but snow, wind, the lot and would always end up so downcast as mostly it doesnt happen - took me years to learn that they are just a model at the end of the day. I still get reeled in from time to time but from pure experience alone I expected zip for today and it delivered. Not even any rain yet again either. Hopefully sometime soon we will all get a smashing storm but it seems rarer and rarer now. 

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I expect some rain to pop up within the red box soon, I can see more towering cumulus, one of which has already anvilled off

storm0.png

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The trouble is now, according to models that theres now an overspread of dry air until it returns overnight. Clouds do keep appearing here but I think the moisture is residual in the lower levels.

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