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Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards


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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

I assume for you that would be this lot 

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I saw and heard that from here.

Seen three stunning CGs into the sea here in the last hour and very deep thunder from them.

Can see lots of virga to the northeast of here now with the orange sunrise sky peaking through.

Edited by Convective
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I got this about 15-20 minutes ago from the London cell. I'm very shocked I got this.

Timing is key for Thursday - we've mentioned before how both the phasing and shape/characteristics of the mid/upper level trough will ultimately determine how many thunderstorms (if any) develop. Mode

My sister got this great pic from leith hill tower 

Posted Images

Well that slowed right down in its March East, it went right across Cornwall and most of Devon in about an hour, was expecting it closer to here, now, but it looks in more or less the same place as when I went to sleep lol. 

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Estofex have the south east of England highlighted for storms today.  Storms later coming from north east France and Belgium may effect the Kent coast.  Still all good to look out for. Sorry, but don't know how to post the link on my tablet. Enjoy your sky and radar watching.  All quiet up north.

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Chuffed to see that some areas got some thunder and lightning action last night ?

Seems that I will not be seeing anything here this morning as the area of instability seems to be just to my east. Fields of Ac, and increasingly AcCas and jellyfish clouds have been steadily increasing over E London, N Kent and Essex in the past hour or so. 

Just a question now of whether this zone of interest will fire or not.

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Yep up at 5am to a clear sky.

Now rapid destabalisation taking place with AltCas everywhere and skie filled in to 7/8 with the approach of the Trough

Next 2-3 hours will show wether Storm will form or not

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Posted (edited)

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - THU 21 MAY 2020

Valid: Thursday 21 May 00z - Friday 22 May 00z

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in SE/E England during Thursday morning and early afternoon. 600-1,400j/kg MUCAPE will be present on Thursday morning and will support these heavy thundery showers. However, an approaching trough from the west will determine how much thundery activity we get. If the trough swings in faster than expected, then the risk of storms developing is very low. A delay in the trough could mean that the thundery activity will be a bit more widespread. If heavy showers/thunderstorms do form over SE/East Anglia then by the early afternoon they might drift out into the north sea. This could yield quite a few hundred j/kg SBCAPE although the chance of any surface based storms is unlikely. 

imageedit_48_3381705346.gif

Edited by Zak M
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Might have been slightly premature in my conclusion of being out of any zone of interest. Fresh wave of moisture/instability now arriving from the W/SW. Jealous of some increasingly meaty looking AcCas though off to my east - possibly Southend way maybe??

First picS looking W/SW while the third pic is looking towards Essex

 

 

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8AAFAF50-47B5-459F-A539-785BC65924CE.jpeg

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Nice to see some instability, though it seems any storms will now be to my East should any form at all

 

DSC_0083.JPG

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You can really see the dry air associated with the trough on the overlay of water vapour imagery. I don't think I got the position of the trough quite right so please correct me. The 0z Herstmonceux sounding doesn't show any instability, but it was in the very early morning and it does show some quite dry air aloft so interesting to see that. Also worth noting that the wind profiles are looking quite favourable for storms, with a nice veer with some OK directional shear. So overall mixed feelings about today but for some reason I'm feeling lucky ?

Screenshot 2020-05-21 at 06.38.53 (1).png

Screenshot 2020-05-21 at 06.51.00.png

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Posted (edited)

This is (as I predicted the other day) literally building over my house and I’m staring straight up the rump! 

Whiff of petrichor as I stepped outside too.

7D1DB006-CD55-486D-A093-907B6FA91EA8.jpeg

Edited by Harry
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Posted (edited)

Some very nice structures to the London area from Essex. Apparently anything this morning will have Little to no precipitation because of the moisture profiles. Classic electrical storm.

 

havering area looking SW

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image.jpg

Edited by Justin1705
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is this the trough thats been close to me for the last hour or so?

 

whatever the feature is the cloudscapes are lovely and make for some great low quality phone photolapses lol, looks like a lot of cumulus is starting to build up from what i can tell so good luck to anyone downwind.

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