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Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards


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17 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Whereas Thursday night into Friday starting to look a whole lot better and still with darkness as well if you can stomach a 3am alarm - Lol

An earlier alarm for me as I will need time to drive into the risk zone ?. I was planning on heading out for tomorrows activity but as things currently stand it would probably be a wasted trip. Things can change but my interest has shifted to Thurs night/Friday early hours for now.

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I got this about 15-20 minutes ago from the London cell. I'm very shocked I got this.

Timing is key for Thursday - we've mentioned before how both the phasing and shape/characteristics of the mid/upper level trough will ultimately determine how many thunderstorms (if any) develop. Mode

My sister got this great pic from leith hill tower 

Posted Images

Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Whatever Model the Met Office were looking at - with this on T watter

 

Probably the EURO4 as it shows almost the exact same.

Edit: Sorry, last time I looked at the EURO4 was ages ago, so my estimation was a bit off...

Edited by Zak M
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Is it worth staying up overnight to see what/if anything happens or is it better to just wake up tomorrow early in the morning? 

It must be said, it doesn’t sound very inspiring from what I’ve read so far today. 

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17 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

Is it worth staying up overnight to see what/if anything happens or is it better to just wake up tomorrow early in the morning? 

It must be said, it doesn’t sound very inspiring from what I’ve read so far today. 

Definately worth getting up if you have things to do, lol. Stormwise? Well you’re more likely to see a decent thunderstorm in a dream than witness one on this little island ?

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6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Second round of storms on Friday morning anyone?

meto1.png

Which computer model is that from? And where do they develop initially 

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
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2 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Which computer model is that from? And where do they develop initially 

From what I heard they use UKV data. Not too sure where they develop initially - at 1am there's absolutely nothing, then 3 hours later they erupt!

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13 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Yes - the UKV

ukvgif.thumb.gif.07d935a66a9a045e07c31e26fa7c1f9c.gif

Aaa other side of London to me. Hope they can stretch just a teeny bit further south on the day providing they actually form if I don’t get any action tomorrow morning. Looks like a very organised batch so looking very good for east anglia then currently

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7 hours ago, Zak M said:

The MetO's graphics show some action

meto.png

I want to bank this one, looks fantastic for my neck of the woods. 

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I'm pretty sure that they see the latest run of the UKV at the same time it is available for Netweather Extra subscribers.

The 18Z looks worse than the 15Z, but it's "not" all academic anyway, still more time for changes.

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7 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

This really wont be resolved until Midnight tonight imho

May be not even till the early hours, this is classic England radar watch stuff. 

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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I'm pretty sure that they see the latest run of the UKV at the same time it is available for Netweather Extra subscribers.

The 18Z looks worse than the 15Z, but it's "not" all academic anyway, still more time for changes.

I'm guessing you mean this for tomorrow morning right?

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22 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I'm guessing you mean this for tomorrow morning right?

This is for tomorrow morning

temp.gif

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1 minute ago, matt111 said:

This is for tomorrow morning

temp.gif

the 18z is already out. I suspect some strong cells possible across eastern Suffolk, Essex and Norfolk around noon.

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1 minute ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

the 18z is already out. I suspect some strong cells possible across eastern Suffolk, Essex and Norfolk around noon.

It is and I was looking at it a few minutes ago before posting the wrong one. ?‍♂️

I won't bother posting the 18Z as it's not worth posting. 

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Let's not worry about Friday for now and i think we should all concentrate on tomorrow as its getting a little confusing switching between the two. As you all know its confusing as it is given will it, wont it ect and thats not helping haha. 

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THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - THURS 21ST MAY 2020

stormmap_210520.thumb.png.2c83f69a7c370447316360f47100dfdc.png

Issued 2020-05-20 21:35:01
Valid: 21/05/2020 0600 - 22/05/2020

Forecast Details

Upper ridge over western Europe over the last few days will begin to retreat eastwards into Thursday, allowing a shortwave trough to move NE across Britain Thursday ahead of longwave upper trough over the mid-North Atlantic.

Although this shortwave trough will tend to relax as it moves northeast, it will nonetheless engage and create large scale ascent of a tongue of modestly warm/moist air advecting N/NE across SE England and East Anglia Thursday morning, steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing MLCAPE to support some scattered elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop initially across SE England before spreading NE across East Anglia by late morning. The showers/storms perhaps briefly becoming organised/more extensive across E Anglia – before clearing out into the North Sea early afternoon. Some overlap with the instability axis across SE England/EA of stronger deep layer shear (40-50knts) could allow cells to organise late morning to support isolated large hail (1-2cm) and strong wind gusts with any storm. Also storms may produce frequent lightning and localised flooding.

A weakening cold front moving east Thursday afternoon, may trigger heavy showers with isolated lightning further north along E coast of England, but will push away east the warm/humid/unstable plume to the south. However, during Thursday night, another tongue of warm/humid air spreading N out of France, characterised by a few 100s MLCAPE, could destabilise to support a narrow band of thunderstorms moving E/NE across SE England/EA in early hours of Friday. This activity ahead of cold front driving east in advance of deep low moving NE to the west of Britain. Though some uncertainty over this overnight potential.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

 

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Yeah I’m confused as a hen. Tomorrow morning is what it’s all about at the mo.

Evolution from that point onwards is completely dependant on how the atmosphere stabilises (or not) from the first trough passing through.

Also worth noting that very often these charts can show two or three events consecutively in a similar location - but this rarely does materialise, probably because of the knock-on effect of one event on the next etc.

Hopefully we do get a couple of good storms out of this. Still hopeful, maybe nothing hugely severe but some early morning dry lightning would be great as an aperitif for Summer 2020 ??

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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Yeah I’m confused as a hen. Tomorrow morning is what it’s all about at the mo.

Evolution from that point onwards is completely dependant on how the atmosphere stabilises (or not) from the first trough passing through.

Also worth noting that very often these charts can show two or three events consecutively in a similar location - but this rarely does materialise, probably because of the knock-on effect of one event on the next etc.

Hopefully we do get a couple of good storms out of this. Still hopeful, maybe nothing hugely severe but some early morning dry lightning would be great as an aperitif for Summer 2020 ??

Well today there was a risk of storms in that area and was there any development? Not a single bit so I’d keep an open mind and instead of looking at models I’d concentrate more on live radar ect. That’s my opinion. 

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9 minutes ago, whitty-southwest-uk said:

Well today there was a risk of storms in that area and was there any development? Not a single bit so I’d keep an open mind and instead of looking at models I’d concentrate more on live radar ect. That’s my opinion. 

There was never a risk of thunderstorms today, despite the models showing CAPE across SE UK, as the atmosphere was capped by high pressure/ridging. CAPE showing doesn't always mean storms are likely.

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2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

There was never a risk of thunderstorms today, despite the models showing CAPE across SE UK, as the atmosphere was capped by high pressure/ridging. CAPE showing doesn't always mean storms are likely.

Thanks for clearing that up. Still all new to me so i appreciate your input and knowledge. ?

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Yep. Remember for storms you need more than just cape. You need moisture, Cape, and a forcing mechanism to allow the moist parcel of air into the CAPE. Add a bit of shear to that mix then you have a far stronger environment for a more persistent storm. 

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