Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[ChannelThunder]

12 minutes ago, Harry said:

Noting all the comments re morning storms. I am so storm starved I’ll take anything I can get right now

Same. Here's hoping a nighttime plume event is just around the corner regardless of what happens Thursday!

[Zak M]

This is the EURO4's take on Thursday.

Just to note that the EURO4 only goes up to 1pm

         

Edited May 19, 2020 by Zak M
I MEANT 1PM NOT 2PM

[Thunder and Lightning]

The latest UKV is not the most encouraging. The cap is a lot stronger, as well as reduced CAPE and less potent storms. Of course very stupid to get negative and pedantic about details that are going to change, but I just don't want this becoming a trend... 

[Thunder and Lightning]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

This is the EURO4's take on Thursday.

Just to note that the EURO4 only goes up to 2pm

         

I'm liking that sort of an outcome!

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

This is the EURO4's take on Thursday.

Just to note that the EURO4 only goes up to 2pm

         

sooo i wont get any action?

[Zak M]

1 minute ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

I'm liking that sort of an outcome!

Same, I'm right in the middle of it all!

1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

sooo i wont get any action?

The EURO4 doesn't show any for your area, but as always it is very hard to pinpoint where these storms will occur. You could have a chance although it might just be down to radar watching.

[staplehurst]

2 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

sooo i wont get any action?

You have to bear in mind this model right now only goes out to 12z Thu (1pm BST). The whole instability plume and trough will be moving east through the afternoon, and so the storm risk will increase eastwards during the day (as may the coverage of storms). Plus if the trough speeds up, then it may end up being The Wash is the western extent instead of the Humber currently indicated on these maps. Still 2 days away, lots of detail to iron out. The risk is probably greatest in East Anglia, but SE England still has a reasonable chance of elevated storms too - they quite often develop more to the southeast than models sometimes suggest.

[Eagle Eye]

i think i know what we all want to happen this year, a supecell the size of the uk probably and it's probably not going to happen but then again we thought we wouldnt be talking about thursday this week a few days ago

Edited May 19, 2020 by Xanderp009

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, Xanderp009 said:

i think i know what we all wnt to happen this year, a supecell the size of the uk probably and it's probably not going to happen but then again we thought we wouldnt be talking about thursday this week a few days ago

I did lol

[Eagle Eye]

i meant when we first heard it it was too far out

[shaky]

Looks like things are downgrading come closer to the time as usual!!i dont even think its the cold front moving east too quickly cos ive compared the models to yesterdays runs and they are quite similar!!i think the issue might be that theres slightly higher pressurre at 1020mb compared to earlier runs across england!!

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

3 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

You have to bear in mind this model right now only goes out to 12z Thu (1pm BST). The whole instability plume and trough will be moving east through the afternoon, and so the storm risk will increase eastwards during the day (as may the coverage of storms). Plus if the trough speeds up, then it may end up being The Wash is the western extent instead of the Humber currently indicated on these maps. Still 2 days away, lots of detail to iron out. The risk is probably greatest in East Anglia, but SE England still has a reasonable chance of elevated storms too - they quite often develop more to the southeast than models sometimes suggest.

thats good news to hear, thankyou

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

7 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

The latest UKV is not the most encouraging. The cap is a lot stronger, as well as reduced CAPE and less potent storms. Of course very stupid to get negative and pedantic about details that are going to change, but I just don't want this becoming a trend... 

Yeah the latest UKV is not convincing by any means. Appears to be an increased risk of elevated storms originally across the SE and then a smaller chance of a stronger surface based storm across East Anglia into the afternoon. A lot of the SB Cape appears to be confined to the far E/SE now.

[Zak M]

1 minute ago, Xanderp009 said:

i think i know what we all want to happen this year, a supecell the size of the uk probably and it's probably not going to happen but then again we thought we wouldnt be talking about thursday this week a few days ago

You probably have more of a chance winning the lottery than getting a supercell the size of the UK lol

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

You probably have more of a chance winning the lottery than getting a supercell the size of the UK lol

havent there been supercells as big as three states in america ? that would be quite a big chunk of the uk haha

[Paul Sherman]

Lol

A Supercell in average terms is generally 30 miles across

Think you are thinking of Convective Systems being 3 states in the USA

Crikey a Supercell the size of 3 states would devastate areas

[Eagle Eye]

5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

You probably have more of a chance winning the lottery than getting a supercell the size of the UK lol

i would say once in a lifetime so probably around the same chance

[Paul Sherman]

Haha this is complete stupidity

You CANNOT Have a Supercell the size of the Uk, your talking 550 miles by 250 miles across

It is impossible

[Paul Sherman]

Just to put this into Perspective the Worlds Biggest Tornado formed on 31st May 2013 (El Reno) which we chased and the radar grab is posted below

The rings on my radar are set to 5 miles each, meaning this storm which was above average in terms of size (Obviously) was about 40 miles x 20 miles

[Ben Sainsbury]

6 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Haha this is complete stupidity

You CANNOT Have a Supercell the size of the Uk, your talking 550 miles by 250 miles across

It is impossible

Yeah I suggest some of you should have a read at Nick F's guide to UK Thunderstorms. Provides a great understanding about some of the basics and types of thunderstorms.

Which you can find here:

 

Edited May 19, 2020 by Ben Sainsbury

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

We all need to wait until the actual day and then start getting fully ready, as a lot matters on timing as other people pointed out. I'm personally hoping the trough is slower than expected so that there is a higher chance of surface based storms, but I hope you get some great pictures either way!

My experience living down here, troughs tend to always be a little behind on the forecast speed, the highs do not like to let go. So I'm crossing my fingers for you guys, same happens this time. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Expecting supercells each and every storm setup in UK is like expecting BFTE after BFTE in winter there is a reason why they are at the rarer end of the scale here, personally I enjoy any thunderstorm regardless of how severe it may or may not be and remember we are still only in May plenty time left yet and Thursday is still 2 days off which is a long time when it comes to storm forecasting.

[Harry]

At this range I tend to rely heavily on the WRF NMM 5km model (06z MUCAPE and convective precipitation charts attached). In previous years I’ve found it really quite good. At less than 24 hours out I then focus more on Euro4 and ARPÈGE which again in recent times have been pretty hot in the real short term. 

[Thunder and Lightning]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

My experience living down here, troughs tend to always be a little behind on the forecast speed, the highs do not like to let go. So I'm crossing my fingers for you guys, same happens this time. 

That really lifted my slightly stupid storm depression mood ! Thank you! 

[alexisj9]

55 minutes ago, shaky said:

Interesting thing i see on these charts are the highest cape is much further west compared to where the precipitation develops!how does that work?highest cape is central southern england and into central east midlands!!

Cthat Cape is behind the forcing and in rather dry air, don't think it will do much, if anything.