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Supacell

Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

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Looks like some interest for Thursday as a trough of low pressure moves in from the west into the warm plume of air that will be already across most of us by that time. I am excited to see the first decent CAPE charts of the season and coupled with some deep layer shear too. Of course, I have learnt through many years of experience that it is pointless getting too excited, as things can and often do change. I am working from home for the foreseeable and so taking time off to chase should not be too hard. My fingers are crossed for things to still look good by Wednesday evening for Thursday.

Current thoughts for me would be to head east into Lincolnshire/Cambridgeshire, but should everything slow down I may be able to stay local.

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supacell, whats the likelyhood of storms for wales then? please

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6 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Looks like some interest for Thursday as a trough of low pressure moves in from the west into the warm plume of air that will be already across most of us by that time. I am excited to see the first decent CAPE charts of the season and coupled with some deep layer shear too. Of course, I have learnt through many years of experience that it is pointless getting too excited, as things can and often do change. I am working from home for the foreseeable and so taking time off to chase should not be too hard. My fingers are crossed for things to still look good by Wednesday evening for Thursday.

Current thoughts for me would be to head east into Lincolnshire/Cambridgeshire, but should everything slow down I may be able to stay local.

what is the chance of me getting a storm here down in broadstairs, id chase but i only have a motorbike ?

 

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5 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

supacell, whats the likelyhood of storms for wales then? please

 

3 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

what is the chance of me getting a storm here down in broadstairs, id chase but i only have a motorbike ?

 

It's too early to be that specific. As things stand eastward progress of the fresher air would need to slow down to give Wales a chance. Broadstairs (Kent) is in with a shout as you will be in the warm and thundery air for longer. Precipitation charts at this range are not much use. I will start looking at them later on Wednesday into Thursday.

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It will certainly be very interesting watching the high resolution models over the next 48 hours. 

Worth noting that NE moving severe storms (supercells or embedded) are often safer to approach and observe from the South and get a better view of the structure. If you tackle a supercell from the North, it’s known as core punching, which can be dangerous, as you may not be aware if there is rotation or giant hail, as that usually falls on the Northern side of the storm, and then into the risky area of a possible ‘notch’, which lies between the hail and a possible mesocyclone with very strong winds, and tornadogenesis! Drivers coming down the A15 and A1 on June 28th 2012 would have unwittingly done this! 

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Sod it, booking Thursday off work, chase ready! 

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WRF-NMM for the UK on Thursday

nmmuk-1-67-0.thumb.png.0043f4800f7af00e2ea628fc6fc17197.png   nmmuk-1-69-0.thumb.png.9461d3ef00cbb36ac222218f65ab3f2e.png   nmmuk-1-71-0.thumb.png.1074a1e58a3032bd53503ad37d35d979.png

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Fuels cheap enough to get a full tank & chase ? 

about time to get a little bit excited ? 

All my kit is ready to go, it’s a good job I like driving ?

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2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

WRF-NMM for the UK on Thursday

nmmuk-1-67-0.thumb.png.0043f4800f7af00e2ea628fc6fc17197.png   nmmuk-1-69-0.thumb.png.9461d3ef00cbb36ac222218f65ab3f2e.png   nmmuk-1-71-0.thumb.png.1074a1e58a3032bd53503ad37d35d979.png

cool shame i'm on lockdown in wales ?, what on earth is your avatar supposed to be? lol, 

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12 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

cool shame i'm on lockdown in wales ?, what on earth is your avatar supposed to be? lol, 

Looonggg story mate lol

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Posted (edited)

lol, mine is the Cardiff bay yacht club logo where i'm based ?

Edited by viking_smb
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Posted (edited)

Wow. Never EVER seen a Day 4 outlook from Convective Weather. Sorry If I'm coming across annoying or over-excited, I have never seen a Day 4 before!

Edited by Thunder and Lightning
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1 minute ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Jeez. Never EVER seen a Day 4 outlook from Convective Weather. Sorry If I'm coming across annoying, I have never seen a Day 4 before!

When CW issues an outlook that far out, you know that some places will be in for a treat!

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Yeah. I'm just hoping that the more recent model guidance of an MCS developing across C and E England is not what actually happens, as I'm worried I would miss out on that. Luckily I sneakily slipped into the CW Day 4!

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7 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Judging by the latest NetWx 12z run definitely a slight westward shift in instability and precipitation. Looking like an M4 Corridor northwards event again, so potentially Oliver!

MR.pngMR Precip.png

Any more update from latest ukv or netwx 18z run mate?gfs still looking good at the moment!!

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6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any more update from latest ukv or netwx 18z run mate?gfs still looking good at the moment!!

UKV 18Z doesn't go out that far. 18Z NetWx isn't out yet.

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Keeping an eye on thursday. Possible chase day. Will need to look at temps, CAPE, cloud clearance, dps, bulk shear, lapse rates and position of upper trough on Wednesday night before assessing supercell chance though. But as the USA is a no go will certainly chase if within reasonable reach

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28 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

UKV 18Z doesn't go out that far. 18Z NetWx isn't out yet.

Nice one mate keep me up to date once either of em are out!!!!

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Does anyone know any traditional shamanic rituals for bringing rain (and storms)?

I'm happy to sacrifice a goat, maybe a cow, or possibly our neighbours' gardener, "Baldy the Bl*wjob" (a hot-rod petrol leaf blower enthusiast who's driven me beyond insanity). 

Anything to get a storm, or rain at least.

We've had 1.5 days real rain since 21 March here in Reigate. I think that counts as a desert now?

I am hoping and hoping Thursday will bring us some rain! (And storms).

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All set for a good chase if the weather stays favourable - another lincs / east anglia setup by the looks of it. Fuel prices below a pound right now so i'm down to travel far.  

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Though I feel right now it really is early days to judge exactly how Thursday will pan out, models are constantly changing but it could be entertaining. I live in Devon so my chances are ruled out unless it starts coming together east of Dartmoor to which id chase into the core over East of UK. great job the A303 is slap bang in the path as could be chasing parallel with it. Supercell cant be ruled out though. 

 

Is there anyone else out for this, given the social distancing be good to hook up with others and chase in a convey or something? I know its hit and miss but never stop chasing i guess. Obviously this all comes down to how good the models are showing and if i can justify going to the other side of the UK for nothing haha.   

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7 hours ago, Supacell said:

 

It's too early to be that specific. As things stand eastward progress of the fresher air would need to slow down to give Wales a chance. Broadstairs (Kent) is in with a shout as you will be in the warm and thundery air for longer. Precipitation charts at this range are not much use. I will start looking at them later on Wednesday into Thursday.

I agree. ?

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Latest GFS run aiming more for Lincolnshire around Midday Thursday, then precipitation looks to be pretty heavy later in the afternoon for some parts

image.thumb.png.7f1030c0abd7cbc490481d4a997be80e.png

image.thumb.png.6f071c6dbd3a5ab37fb7c8af4be53a06.png

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Posted (edited)

My only worry remains that the pressure lies very high throughout Thursday (~1020hPa) and as a result both ICON-EU and ARPEGE not showing any thundery activity at all.

ICON-EU suppressing any convection with pressure exceeding 1022hPa, ARPEGE ~ 1020hPa

NetWx somewhat below 1020hPa hence more widespread thundery activity.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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11 hours ago, Zak M said:

Yes! I saw so many of those clouds this morning. At around 11am today there were some cirrus that were EXACTLY in the shape of a cumulonimbus cloud.

same here

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