Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[Chris Lea-Alex]

5 hours ago, Daniel* said:

I think this thunderstorm drought unsettles me more than snow drought it is not so uncommon to go a few years without snow...

What is this "snow" you speak of?

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

What is this "snow" you speak of?

Some say they are made of ice crystals! 

[Eagle Eye]

does anyone know what flattened cumulus means because i've seen a lot of it recently  

[Paul Sherman]

Means fair weather no power in the atmosphere for it to grow upwards eg no steep lapse rates and no energy

Dont expect anything to change in the next 5-7 days either 

Its a yawnfest unfortunately

[Eagle Eye]

Well it's a dramatic change on next Friday

[Andy Bown]

34 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

does anyone know what flattened cumulus means because i've seen a lot of it recently  

These are flattened cumulus. We had them yesterday too but smaller than this.

[viking_smb]

44 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

Well it's a dramatic change on next Friday

things can change as I said before.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

59 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

does anyone know what flattened cumulus means because i've seen a lot of it recently  

Probably a patch of stratus?

either that or just cumulus, but smaller cumulus

[Eagle Eye]

Looking at the sky seeing some cirrostratus, cirrus, flattened cumuls, cumulus and a cloud that looks like a tornado on it's side; expecting some stratus, altocumulus, altocumulus floccus, statocumuls and cumulonimbus clouds soon

[Eagle Eye]

looking at the bbc looks like we could get remnants of a possible tropical storm sounds like it's going to be windy have a lot of energy and thunderstorms

[ChannelThunder]

1 hour ago, Xanderp009 said:

Looking at the sky seeing some cirrostratus, cirrus, flattened cumuls, cumulus and a cloud that looks like a tornado on it's side; expecting some stratus, altocumulus, altocumulus floccus, statocumuls and cumulonimbus clouds soon

Huh? 

[NUT]

1 hour ago, Xanderp009 said:

Looking at the sky seeing some cirrostratus, cirrus, flattened cumuls, cumulus and a cloud that looks like a tornado on it's side; expecting some stratus, altocumulus, altocumulus floccus, statocumuls and cumulonimbus clouds soon

I think your a tad optimistic there. Kent won't be getting any storms or rain for at least a week and probably beyond

[Thunder and Lightning]

Everyone go check the latest NetWx MR Model for Thursday... Plume with 600-1000j/kg and and 30-45kts of DLS with a 90mph upper trough and 45mpg LLJ. Literally my dream setup but I'm not sure it's going to happen

[ChannelThunder]

27 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Everyone go check the latest NetWx MR Model for Thursday... Plume with 600-1000j/kg and and 30-45kts of DLS with a 90mph upper trough and 45mpg LLJ. Literally my dream setup but I'm not sure it's going to happen

Sounds....tasty!

My version of that model only goes up to midnight Tuesday night, so guessing I'd need to be a sub to view any further

[Thunder and Lightning]

1 minute ago, lancem said:

Sounds....tasty!

My version of that model only goes up to midnight Tuesday night, so guessing I'd need to be a sub to view any further

Definitely get it if you can! it's 100% worth it.

Some forecast soundings

500mb winds

850mb winds

CAPE and DLS

Overall setup

I looks pretty good so I'm hoping this is a trend of some sort!

 

 

 

[Thunder and Lightning]

I just checked the GFS and it has a similar scenario but a lot less CAPE

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I’m not holding my breath just yet. I’ve seen many promising charts like above soon get shunted east and a Kent clipper scenario happen at best. We aren’t tapping into the warm sector enough on that chart for a comfortable bet in my opinion. I like to see the 15c isotherm and DP’s at least 15-16c at least tapping into the SE for anything decent to brew.

It’s also too far out for any promise even at 72-96hrs out. 24 hours is even a long time when forecasting storms and getting hopes up. It’s been a very disappointing May so far. 

Edited May 16, 2020 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Thunder and Lightning]

1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I’m not holding my breath just yet. I’ve seen many promising charts like above soon get shunted east and a Kent clipper scenario happen at best. We aren’t tapping into the warm sector enough on that chart for a comfortable bet in my opinion. 

It’s also too far out for any promise even at 72-96hrs out. 24 hours is even a long time when forecasting storms and getting hopes up. It’s been a very disappointing May so far. 

It's true . I don't think it will end up being a Kent Clipper just based on the setup, but of course things will change. It's just the consistency of the low to the West of the UK. I really hope we end up with a similar scenario and it's not just the usual disappointment .

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 minute ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

It's true . I don't think it will end up being a Kent Clipper just based on the setup, but of course things will change. It's just the consistency of the low to the West of the UK. I really hope we end up with a similar scenario and it's not just the usual disappointment .

I hope so to. But anything zipping by especially on a SW-NE orientation will always be a flash in the pan or a knife edge situation due to the limited Surface based heating. Direct Southerlies or South/Southeast feed greatly increases the window for a more long lived plume, and more opportunities for everyone, like May 2018 and July 2018. They are textbook examples. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

44 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I hope so to. But anything zipping by especially on a SW-NE orientation will always be a flash in the pan or a knife edge situation due to the limited Surface based heating. Direct Southerlies or South/Southeast feed greatly increases the window for a more long lived plume, and more opportunities for everyone, like May 2018 and July 2018. They are textbook examples. 

Yeah I always look for the southerly draw before I get too excited, saying that we had a cracker way back in 2012 or 13 (long time ago can’t remember off the top of my head) that slowly tracked here from Gloucester on a NWly flow, which I think gave it enough land to build into a decent storm system. It was literally perfect, but I don’t think that was anything to do with a plume.

I’ll try And find the dates, remember there were a lot of videos from Reading where it first kicked off properly.

Last year in May was the best storm I’ve probably seen for a good couple of years - I drove down to East Sussex for work and decided to hang out afterwards and wait for that first big Continental System to move up over the channel. That was amazing. I have videos which I‘m sure I uploaded at the time but I’d need to find them again. Stunning lightning for hours. It headed straight for where I was (Glynde nr Brighton) then swung to the left (eastwards) literally as it was about to hit, meaning I was saved the heaviest rain and hail and allowed for almost perfect conditions to get some great photos... (it’s where my forum pic came from lol)

Its only been a year but May is often a really good month for storms round these parts, so I’m optimistic about the potential feature being mentioned for Thursday night

Edited May 16, 2020 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

5 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Yeah I always look for the southerly draw before I get too excited, saying that we had a cracker way back in 2012 or 13 (long time ago can’t remember off the top of my head) that slowly tracked here from Gloucester on a NWly flow, which I think gave it enough land to build into a decent storm system. It was literally perfect, but I don’t think that was anything to do with a plume.

I’ll try And find the dates, remember there were a lot of videos from Reading where it first kicked off properly.

Last year in May was the best storm I’ve probably seen for a good couple of years - I drove down to East Sussex for work and decided to hang out afterwards and wait for that first big Continental System to move up over the channel. That was amazing. I have videos which I‘m sure I uploaded at the time but I’d need to find them again. Stunning lightning for hours. It headed straight for where I was (Glynde nr Brighton) then swung to the left (eastwards) literally as it was about to hit, meaning I was saved the heaviest rain and hail and allowed for almost perfect conditions to get some great photos... (it’s where my forum pic came from lol)

Its only been a year but May is often a really good month for storms round these parts, so I’m optimistic about the potential feature being mentioned for Thursday night

I think you may be on about June the 12th or 13th 2014. Probably the most weirdest setup that gave some epic storms over the Home Counties, Berkshire into Sussex and Hampshire and then ended up being an English export across the channel to France! I’ll never forget it. I flew out to France on holiday the day after! 

It seemed to form on the right flank of a declining high pressure that declined westwards, cooler air aloft from the North with Norherlies that overlapped a previously very warm day. A rare occurrence indeed. If Carling or John smiths did thunderstorms lol! 

Edited May 16, 2020 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[cheese]

The thunderstorm in September 2016 that traversed the Pennines from Manchester to Leeds:

 

[Chris Lea-Alex]

@East_England_Stormchaser91

Are you talking about this one from june 13th?

 

[ChannelThunder]

Looking at the models, I think I'm inclined to reluctantly join the 'no plumes this May' club.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

25 minutes ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

@East_England_Stormchaser91

Are you talking about this one from june 13th?

 

I think you might be right. Really unusual to  have something like that headed in that direction for sure. Bet Le Havre were gutted to miss out