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Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

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Yes there even was a tornado that touched down north of here last september caused some damage to the motorway and knocked a few things flying. in Guardamare del segura. north of torrevieja. when it rains it pours we never really get light rain here 

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its a great country for storm enthusiasts like myself  to live in 

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Just some pics of storms here and also a really nice anvil in the distance one summer evening 

20200421_192436.jpg

20190827_205029.jpg

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20190418_202605.jpg

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The latest 4 GFS runs are showing a >10c 850hPa temperatures around the UK, with the latest 3 looking a bit like plumes! Hopefully this is trying to say something... ?

trend-gfs-2020051206-f276.850th.uk.gif

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Thursday morning next week looks like we could have some sharp thundery showers heading up from the continent, but there’s only about 24 hours of decent *proper* warm weather progged ahead of this (and its over 7 days away) so worth keeping an eye on but good to temper any excitement at this stage.

Looks like there’s a swirly low headed in from the west but it seems to wane on the final approach and elongate and stall, at the moment looks like this might allow time for some instability to waft up like a hot French fart...

Again, all eyes to the FIs ?

(Derived from GFS)

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Obviously do not take this literally at all, but the GFS has been consistently showing remnants of what would be named Arthur affect us around the 21st/22nd. The latest run is even showing a plume of warm air with decent CAPE. I thought it was an outlier, but it's been quite a consistent trend, but it will likely stop over the next week or so.

1st and 2nd Images are the latest GFS

3rd Image is the 0z GFS

4th Image is yesterday's 12z GFS

Screenshot 2020-05-13 at 14.00.43.png

Screenshot 2020-05-13 at 14.01.02.png

Screenshot 2020-05-13 at 14.01.19.png

Screenshot 2020-05-13 at 14.01.33.png

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1 hour ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Obviously do not take this literally at all, but the GFS has been consistently showing remnants of what would be named Arthur affect us around the 21st/22nd. The latest run is even showing a plume of warm air with decent CAPE. I thought it was an outlier, but it's been quite a consistent trend, but it will likely stop over the next week or so.

1st and 2nd Images are the latest GFS

3rd Image is the 0z GFS

4th Image is yesterday's 12z GFS

Screenshot 2020-05-13 at 14.00.43.png

Screenshot 2020-05-13 at 14.01.02.png

Screenshot 2020-05-13 at 14.01.19.png

Screenshot 2020-05-13 at 14.01.33.png

 

517D0F94-2198-41DE-AAE0-8043CA98F90C.gif

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signs of rotation even if it is over 7 days away.

1 hour ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Obviously do not take this literally at all, but the GFS has been consistently showing remnants of what would be named Arthur affect us around the 21st/22nd. The latest run is even showing a plume of warm air with decent CAPE. I thought it was an outlier, but it's been quite a consistent trend, but it will likely stop over the next week or so.

1st and 2nd Images are the latest GFS

3rd Image is the 0z GFS

4th Image is yesterday's 12z GFS

Screenshot 2020-05-13 at 14.00.43.png

Screenshot 2020-05-13 at 14.01.02.png

Screenshot 2020-05-13 at 14.01.19.png

Screenshot 2020-05-13 at 14.01.33.png

 

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1 minute ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Rotation?

that's what it looks like

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bear in mind this will change closer to the time 

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5 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

that's what it looks like

Large low pressure systems tend not to rotate, especially in the way supercells do. ? 

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Just now, viking_smb said:

bear in mind this will change closer to the time 

Yeah, I was just saying how it would be fun to happen and how the GFS has been consistent with it.

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Does anyone know why storms happen less often now i.e. less plume events in the last decade or so? (or at least point me in the right direction to find out)

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32 minutes ago, convector said:

Does anyone know why storms happen less often now i.e. less plume events in the last decade or so? (or at least point me in the right direction to find out)

Whatever it is, it needs to do one! 

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Posted (edited)

I guess I’ve been lucky to see a few here over the last few years but it’s still not like it used to be. One decent storm a year at best now it seems. 

Edited by matt111
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Latest GFS run looks nice and thundery late next week. It's overdone these cut off lows in the past though, so I'm off to grab a very large pinch of salt

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Or hope its progged for the Mid Atlantic and every eastwards shift puts it over the Uk and not up into Benelux haha

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3 hours ago, convector said:

Does anyone know why storms happen less often now i.e. less plume events in the last decade or so? (or at least point me in the right direction to find out)

I don’t think it’s true that they are - certainly the last 6-7 years here (London/Kent borders) have been pretty much average or above average in terms of frequency and intensity.

1 hour ago, lancem said:

Latest GFS run looks nice and thundery late next week. It's overdone these cut off lows in the past though, so I'm off to grab a very large pinch of salt

Indeed - my phone app also appears to be following suit now with temperatures of 25/26C this time next week and minimums of 14C. Fingers crossed!

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I wasn’t expecting anything given nothing was forecast today but the sky did have that look ago it it earlier. 

E1FAA7C7-AC66-40D4-AFF0-7ACBD77C3171.jpeg

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Just found another video I recorded on 21st April 2018. 

 

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I think this thunderstorm drought unsettles me more than snow drought it is not so uncommon to go a few years without snow, once upon a time central London got decent storms every year. 

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On 13/05/2020 at 15:36, Xanderp009 said:

signs of rotation even if it is over 7 days away.

 

Low pressure systems rotate anti-clockwise come on are you thinking that’s a giant supercell LOL! 

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