Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[Allseasons-Si]

Sferics in N Lincolnshire.

Edited May 9, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[toggerob]

NIKON D3100 for the camera, was swapping between the standard 18-55mm lens and the Sigma 75-300mm on Manual focus mode. Just a bit of luck pointing the camera in the right place in 'burst mode' and spent a good hour afterwards sorting through all 2500 snaps  I've been thinking of upgrading to the D5600 for a while now the D3100 has stopped production but it's a easy entry DSLR. 

[Allseasons-Si]

21 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

NIKON D3100 for the camera, was swapping between the standard 18-55mm lens and the Sigma 75-300mm on Manual focus mode. Just a bit of luck pointing the camera in the right place in 'burst mode' and spent a good hour afterwards sorting through all 2500 snaps  I've been thinking of upgrading to the D5600 for a while now the D3100 has stopped production but it's a easy entry DSLR. 

How much are the D3100's?

iv'e just got the Sony DSC HX-60,it's not bad but i would like a DSLR.

Edit:just looked,about £220

Edited May 9, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[toggerob]

You can get them cheap as chips off ebay for £100-£200 these days, the expense mostly comes with getting the lenses and accessories but straight out the bag it's simple to use without the need for polarization filters or shutter-release extensions, etc. Mines been through hail, storms, heatwaves, washouts, dropped once (oops), but still holds well after 8 years of use.

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, SNOW_JOKE said:

You can get them cheap as chips off ebay for £100-£200 these days, the expense mostly comes with getting the lenses and accessories but straight out the bag it's simple to use without the need for polarization filters or shutter-release extensions, etc. Mines been through hail, storms, heatwaves, washouts, dropped once (oops), but still holds well after 8 years of use.

Yeh they are about ten years old but still a good cam,just looking on ebay now and the bids are through the roof regardless of age,i will keep on looking but i am out of pocket as you know with this staying at home and only getting 80% of my wages

if you would be selling yours,how much would you want for it?

[Allseasons-Si]

Some big developments around the Channel Islands but i don't think they are heading north but one area to watch.

[Allseasons-Si]

There is a cell developing over me right now,plus sferics west of Malton N Yorkshire.

[Aiden2012]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

There is a cell developing over me right now,plus sferics west of Malton N Yorkshire.

I just seen a flash from that and i live in Bridlington, was shocked haha. 

[toggerob]

It'll be a while yet before I let go of the D3100 as i'm still waiting for the newer models to drop down in price but i'd be looking at selling it all (camera-body, lenses, accessories) for £100 too. Just a case of waiting for the right time when the technology catches up to being affordable. 

Someone NE of York will be getting a surprise soon enough with a potent little cell dropping some sparks, had a bit of moderate rain here for a short time but it's all cooled off outside so i'm not expecting anything else for us in the Peaks. To think in 12 hours from now the temperature will be significantly colder during the day than it currently is outside tonight.

[Allseasons-Si]

14 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:

I just seen a flash from that and i live in Bridlington, was shocked haha. 

Are you still seeing flashes?

there is quiet a few sferics from it now.

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

It'll be a while yet before I let go of the D3100 as i'm still waiting for the newer models to drop down in price but i'd be looking at selling it all (camera-body, lenses, accessories) for £100 too. Just a case of waiting for the right time when the technology catches up to being affordable. 

Someone NE of York will be getting a surprise soon enough with a potent little cell dropping some sparks, had a bit of moderate rain here for a short time but it's all cooled off outside so i'm not expecting anything else for us in the Peaks. To think in 12 hours from now the temperature will be significantly colder during the day than it currently is outside tonight.

PM me when you decide to sell it,how many shots have you took?

Edited May 10, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[toggerob]

Today was 2507 pictures in short 10-s bursts (it saves wearing out the mirror-motor) which gave 8 good enough pics of the lightning despite the shutter taking longer due to the fading light, but overall i've got 26.4GB in different folders. Mostly weather, airshow, fell-racing events, and the odd weekend-trip away in the mountains.

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Today was 2507 pictures in short 10-s bursts (it saves wearing out the mirror-motor) which gave 8 good enough pics of the lightning despite the shutter taking longer due to the fading light, but overall i've got 26.4GB in different folders. Mostly weather, airshow, fell-racing events, and the odd weekend-trip away in the mountains.

Not bad for a ten year old cam

sorry have i mis-judged that,is that 2507 for today?

Edited May 10, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

Sferic SW of me

[Aiden2012]

53 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Are you still seeing flashes?

there is quiet a few sferics from it now.

Yeah it put on a little light show, the lightning has died off now though

[MikeUpjohn]

 

 

A couple of my videos from last night of what could be seen from Macclesfield over the hills towards Wincle/Leek/Buxton. 

Mike.

[Allseasons-Si]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 10 May 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 11 May 2020

ISSUED 07:43 UTC Sun 10 May 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 07:43 UTC SLGT extended a little farther east to include Dartmoor. Also need to monitor Pembrokeshire

 

... EAST MIDLANDS ...

A zone of weak elevated instability (100 J/kg CAPE) will linger across the East Midlands on Sunday morning, engaged by a shortwave to generate showery outbreaks of rain. This zone has a history of producing isolated lightning over the past few hours, but with each passing hour this morning instability will wane and so the risk of lightning - albeit already low (10-15%) - will continue to reduce with time.

 

... NORTHERN ISLES / NE SCOTLAND ...

As Arctic air continues to feed southwards atop relatively warm SSTs, scattered wintry showers will develop and affect the area. Despite 100-200 J/kg CAPE, the depth of convection will be notably shallow, and increasingly so as subsidence inversion continues to build, suggesting the risk of isolated lightning is very low (5-10%) and ever-reducing with each hour through Sunday daytime.

 

... SOUTHERN ENGLAND / SOUTH WALES / ENGLISH CHANNEL / SW IRELAND ...

Firstly, weak elevated instability is present across the eastern half of the English Channel, and a subtle impulse running NE-wards from France continues to engage and develop some showery outbreaks of rain. This carries a low risk (10%) of isolated lightning on Sunday morning, perhaps increasing a little (15-20%) on Sunday afternoon as a second impulse drifts across the area from France.

 

Elsewhere, visible satellite imagery depicts areas of thick high cloud spilling northwards into southern England. However, should sufficient diurnal heating develop, lifting surface temperatures to 19-21C (and dewpoints 10-13C) then this may yield 100-300 J/kg CAPE (and up to 600 J/kg CAPE in Devon/Cornwall). There may be a window of opportunity for low-level convergence zones to become established in the slack flow ahead of the surface cold front, which combined with orographic forcing may provide forced ascent to generate a few isolated showers (particularly Essex-Surrey-Sussex, Dorset-Devon-Cornwall and Carmarthenshire-Pembrokeshire). However, the cold front will crash southwards with a surge of strong NNE-erly winds, and while this may provide a brief increase in forced ascent the cold undercut will ultimately scour away any remaining instability.

 

Conditions may be more favourable over SW Wales (20%) and perhaps more especially S Devon into Cornwall (25-30%) where the surface cold front arrives later in the day, allowing more sufficient sea breeze convergence to develop downwind from Dartmoor. This, combined with a subtle impulse arriving from the northwest serving to slightly cool the mid-levels, may offer a better environment for deeper convection and a few sporadic lightning strikes for a time. While confidence in much in the way of lightning is not high, have issued a low-end SLGT to better highlight area with the best potential. 

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

[Supacell]

Not a bad bit of lightning for a day where I expected nothing. The first picture is taken from near to Ashbourne looking over in the direction of Leek. All the others are from near Hindlow in the Peak District. All of them are video freeze frames, hence the low quality.

 

Edited May 10, 2020 by Supacell

[ChannelThunder]

Not expecting any storms today, however it's notable how unstable the skies look this morning. Currenty they're full of Ac Cas, pretty chunky too!

[Paul Sherman]

You might be in the best place today Lance - If any convergence can take place some interesting skies could happen from Surrey through to Hampshire before the Cold front catches up and shunts it southwards 

[toggerob]

9 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Not bad for a ten year old cam

sorry have i mis-judged that,is that 2507 for today?

Yes  2507 for the entire hour I was out in the garden, it was quite an active cell but the lightning was jumping from one spot to another so just when I thought I knew where the core was there'd be a IC/CC/CG pop out in another place out of camera view. From the Radar I knew it was going right to left (looking south) and was lucky enough to get 8 good frames when the shutter caught the lightning at just the right time so it wasn't too over/under exposed. One day i'll have to go to the states or Europe again and do some photography practice with the thunderstorms that live up to their name and make ours in the UK simply look like fireworks.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I am having storm forecast withdrawal after yesterday so here’s a storm forecast for today.

I took inspiration from a scene from the 1970s counterculture film Zabrinski Point by Antonioni. I have attempted to connect the airborne items to create the British isles.

In summary there’s less of a risk of storms than yesterday, unless you’re down south where there might be a rare little bit of convergence over the A3 at Hindhead and a second zone over Cornwall and most of the western seas.

The map also appears to develop a risk over some northern areas.

 

Edited May 10, 2020 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Frosty hollows]

1 hour ago, lancem said:

Not expecting any storms today, however it's notable how unstable the skies look this morning. Currenty they're full of Ac Cas, pretty chunky too!

Noticed that too. It's just grey now, sadly 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

You can actually see the convergence over the central south on Sat24. Looks Like it could be quite pronounced, despite the slack environment. Not expecting more than a shower but where there’s a mechanism there’s a very small chance...  

(edit it looks better with the animation en.sat24.com)

Edited May 10, 2020 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Rush2019]

48 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I am having storm forecast withdrawal after yesterday so here’s a storm forecast for today.

I took inspiration from a scene from the 1970s counterculture film Zabrinski Point by Antonioni. I have attempted to connect the airborne items to create the British isles.

In summary there’s less of a risk of storms than yesterday, unless you’re down south where there might be a rare little bit of convergence over the A3 at Hindhead and a second zone over Cornwall and most of the western seas.

The map also appears to develop a risk over some northern areas.

 

This made me chuckle, thanks FBFB.  ( are you suffering lockdown fatigue?  LoL)