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Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
1 hour ago, ChezWeather said:

July 1st 2015 I think?

The storm that hit here after midnight then is still the fastest I have seen a cell develop on radar to this day I was minutes away from calling it a bust then boom and I am pretty sure it could have been a supercell though obviously couldn’t see any structure but ingredients were in place as ESTOFEX forecast highlighted.

A level 2 was issued for N England, S Scotland mainly for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, tornadoes and heavy rain.
Potentially very severe situation with number of question marks will develop over parts of UK. As the plume of steep lapse rates overspreads the low level airmass characterised by dewpoints of 16 - 18 deg C, moderate degree of latent instability will develop over the region. CAPE values will stay mostly between 500 - 1500 J/kg, but some models allow up to 2000 J/kg of CAPE, especially over N England / S Scotland. Strong flow at low to mid-troposphere will result in 15 - 25 m/s of 0-3 and 0-6 km bulk wind shear, values well conducive for organised convection. Furthermore, veering of wind with height will favour curved hodographs and more than 200 m2/s2 of SREH in the 0-3 km layer. Such conditions would be very conducive for supercells, probably in the HP mode, or bow echoes, as much of the wind shear is confined to the surface to 700 hPa layer. Large (or even very large hail), damaging winds and even tornadoes (especially in the northern part of Lvl 2 with low LCLs) could accompany such well organised storms. 

 

My videos are on an old hard drive which stopped working before I could upload them hopefully somehow I can fix it one day.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Just to add onto my previous post about the thundery potential next Monday into Tuesday, here's what the current forecast models show atm:

UKV actually shows the biggest chance of any thundery activity reaching the far SW. High-res models like AROME & EURO4 don't reach that timeframe yet.

GFS: gfs.thumb.png.6ab5a55e59778611a96994ad49a069ab.png ARPEGE: ARPEGE.thumb.png.bcfc3f7c029d219ce9db75b1299d74f8.png NMM: 245393774_netmr.thumb.png.78891d84a81f9cc95494616bb1412a17.png

UKV: ukv.thumb.png.4ecbf185acacef2b30d540b87b864665.png ICON: 1347855746_ICONEU.thumb.png.5a84fb575b1656d2913f8fefcb03f22e.png

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
1 hour ago, ChezWeather said:

Some great cloud tops to my West right now from that line of showers!

 

I've posted these before but seems as we're on the topic of UK Supercells, why not have them again!

28th June 2012:

Some great info and pics on these 2 links 

https://www.stratusdeck.co.uk/28th-june-2012

https://hinckleyweatherblog.wordpress.com/2013/06/25/leicestershire-supercell-storms-of-28th-june-2012/

 

Massive hail in Leicestershire 

image.thumb.png.d0651f956cde72dd4f8b803d42bb86fe.png

The multi-cell cluster and the classic flying eagle Supercell to the right 

image.thumb.png.117ccb9dce63f8fcb4805e0f49d8e9a6.png

Said Supercell went on to produce the Sleaford tornado, that's probably the most defined Supercell ever seen on UK radar? 

image.thumb.png.c02dd8ae2d017b204d9357d86fcd32da.png

Satellite image

image.thumb.png.168ea89f4836ceff90b8337f71b1dcef.png

Lightning total 

image.thumb.png.62f4ee4e0cd8e7c448fcf4a1b2d10ef1.png

 

 

A truly historical day. 

Also I forgot to mention, the clear deviation to the right is also a prime sign of a supercell. I believe that one highlighted became a splitter over the Warwickshire area. Remember seeing it undergo rapid intensification after it broke off and moved more NE as opposed to N-NNE earlier that day. The lightning track also shows this clearly. That was when the huge updrafts would have started and then started dropping golf balls and tennis balls over Hinckley and underwent tornadogenesis. 

This storm would have been enough to warrant sirens in the Midwest and the weather channel have the chopper following it! That’s how dangerous that one really was. All we got however was the BBC saying there would be a few thunder showers...Majorly caught off guard there! 

Lastly, another day I forgot to mention, the El Brumo day of 28th July 2005. There was even 2 confirmed tornadoes in Peterborough and Moulton near Spalding. Large hail also fell from that storm! That was one epic day too

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

A few more of that July storm and one from here 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

One of the best storms i can remember was 13th of September 2016,i didn't post clip one because there wasn't much action until it past over,i did wish that i put the cam in manual focus though,enjoy

Hope to see scenes like this this year,it's been a while.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

The most unexpected of flashes outside my window from a small shower to my east!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Keeping my eye on that cell Lancaster way,it could produce,you never know.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

One from 24th July last year around 3am.

l.thumb.png.031596759b233857c87a71b46e805302.png

fast forward to 9:40.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
2 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

One of the best storms i can remember was 13th of September 2016,i didn't post clip one because there wasn't much action until it past over,i did wish that i put the cam in manual focus though,enjoy

Hope to see scenes like this this year,it's been a while.

What a great storm, got caught out in the Peak District by this one, had no signal to check radar and dark skies appeared to the south, brilliant stuff 

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Under Lyme
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Under Lyme

Convergence zone developing across the NE later. 

nmm_uk1-3-14-2.png

nmm_uk1-1-16-2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

A year ago today...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 02 May 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 03 May 2020

ISSUED 20:33 UTC Fri 01 May 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A strip of shear vorticity will stretch from eastern Ireland across Wales to SE England first thing on Saturday morning, but quickly pulling away as an upper trough axis over Scotland slides southwards across northern and eastern England during the day. This will provide the main focus for any deep convection, aided by increasing low-level convergence, resulting in a scattering of showers over southern Scotland across northern England into East Anglia. Given meagre CAPE (100-200 J/kg) and rather restricted depth of convection, the risk of lightning is considered rather low (10-15%). Some shear may exist, but much of this will be located above the cloud-bearing layer. Any showers that do form will fade during the evening as diurnal heating subsides.

There could be a few isolated showers that develop from east Wales across the south Midlands for a time during Saturday evening as the next strip of shear vorticity approaches. However, instability will be ever-decreasing through the evening hours, and so the risk of lightning is very low (5%).

socialmedialogo.png
WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

largethumb.thumb.png.8863b80dcda229d60026ebbe46e13295.png

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL

Clouds are beginning to build up nicely here, definitely some strong updrafts going on, got the buzzard pair circling over the fields too  

2123418011_IMG_20200502_1051380681.thumb.jpg.7b8c30991207e9011b6cecc72520c8ad.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

Lots of heavy showers yesterday and then late evening, the sun peeped out from under the cloud base. whipped the drone up to take advantage of the light.

 

Edited by matty40s
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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

i am going to randomly pinpoint friday 22nd may for that overnight plume we get from spain

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
21 hours ago, John90 said:

Great find!  Leaves me hungry for some decent summer storms, days like today don't excite me too much.

The frequency of lightning does is not a good  indicator of whether a storm is a supercell. It's often a case that people think big storm + lots of lightning = supercell.  I mean the storms can be super, but not in the scientific definition sense of a supercell. Let's blame whoever came up with the name in the first place? 

 

Yeah, not 100% sure that's the one but there was definitely a confirmed evening supercell over london a couple/few years ago with literally constant strobe lightning. I saw it around 11pm that night and watched it for a good half hour. There was no thunder. I assumed this was the same storm as the video seems to match up with what happened on that night - an evening severe north/north east london storm with constant strobe lightning. We were all talking about it in the thread on this site at the time so it should be archived somewhere if you want to find the exact date.

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
18 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

A truly historical day. 

Also I forgot to mention, the clear deviation to the right is also a prime sign of a supercell. I believe that one highlighted became a splitter over the Warwickshire area. Remember seeing it undergo rapid intensification after it broke off and moved more NE as opposed to N-NNE earlier that day. The lightning track also shows this clearly. That was when the huge updrafts would have started and then started dropping golf balls and tennis balls over Hinckley and underwent tornadogenesis. 

This storm would have been enough to warrant sirens in the Midwest and the weather channel have the chopper following it! That’s how dangerous that one really was. All we got however was the BBC saying there would be a few thunder showers...Majorly caught off guard there! 

Lastly, another day I forgot to mention, the El Brumo day of 28th July 2005. There was even 2 confirmed tornadoes in Peterborough and Moulton near Spalding. Large hail also fell from that storm! That was one epic day too

Ah, so it IS possible to actually identify a supercell on the current radar we have access to. Good to know. Yeah, the bbc and usual media outlets are useless when it comes to predicting severe weather. They seem to want to do everything they can to pretend supercells and tornados do not exist in this country, even when it's right infront of their eyes you get rubbish like "what appears to be a tornado" or crap like "mini tornado" when there's no such thing. It's a pretty dangerous way to go about things if you ask me - people need to be informed about the potential dangers. Thank god for netweathers storm forecast and places like convectiveweather. It's just a shame the general public don't know anything about them.

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
2 hours ago, Windblade said:

Ah, so it IS possible to actually identify a supercell on the current radar we have access to. Good to know. Yeah, the bbc and usual media outlets are useless when it comes to predicting severe weather. They seem to want to do everything they can to pretend supercells and tornados do not exist in this country, even when it's right infront of their eyes you get rubbish like "what appears to be a tornado" or crap like "mini tornado" when there's no such thing. It's a pretty dangerous way to go about things if you ask me - people need to be informed about the potential dangers. Thank god for netweathers storm forecast and places like convectiveweather. It's just a shame the general public don't know anything about them.

I suppose when the radar signature is that clear it is! Many tend to be not so obvious because not all supercell's give that classic radar signature. I really do wish we had access to the doppler. I few month ago there was a Tornado in Surrey just down the road and the metoffice did actually share a still of the doppler from the event.  Im glad there's some decent write up's of the 2012 event because its often difficult to find paper's, etc on uk weather events. 

 

Here's a link to that surrey tornado in december 

WWW.GETSURREY.CO.UK

A radar image on the left shows the heavy shower that would have caused the destructive weather event which ripped through parts of the county

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 03 May 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 04 May 2020

ISSUED 19:34 UTC Sat 02 May 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A rather complex pattern will evolve for Sunday, as an upper ridge over the British Isles flattens and westerly flow strengthens significantly in the mid/upper levels, this in part due to the tightening gradient as an upper trough swings southeastwards across Scotland. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will linger close to southwest England, introducing more cloud into southern Britain with hill and coastal fog and some light rain and drizzle. The exact behaviour of this front is a little uncertain, perhaps unusually so given the short lead time now, with the GFS (and WRF derivatives) rather bullish in pushing this zone of thicker cloud and light rain across more of southern Britain than most other NWP guidance.

Either way, scattered showers are likely over Scotland throughout the morning, with others developing elsewhere across northern England, and perhaps parts of N Wales / Midlands / E Anglia, primarily aided by diurnal heating and low-level convergence zones given the slack flow. For the most part, forecast profiles suggest a warm nose will exist ~550mb, which will serve to restrict the depth of convection, otherwise the environment is well-sheared above the cloud-bearing layer. With a shallow surface low developing by the afternoon, low-level winds will become increasingly backed, blowing from the ESE and veering to the SW at 850mb and W at 600mb. This turning with height, plus increased vorticity due to surface convergence, could aid in the development of a few funnel clouds or perhaps the odd weak tornado. Weak instability (100-200 J/kg CAPE) and restricted cloud depth suggests any lightning will be very isolated and the risk overall is considered very low (10%).

During the evening and overnight hours, the approaching upper trough over Scotland and associated increasing baroclinicity may result in convection amalgamating into an area of showery rain over parts of northern England and the east Midlands, perhaps also into East Anglia.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-05-03

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Small chance of a few isolated thundery showers developing tomorrow afternoon by the looks of it. Developing over the Midlands and East of England moving northeastwards. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

First sferics over Allendale,northern England.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Just had a heavy shower here

3F964521-92FF-4FC7-A7C7-4036F7E3039E.jpeg

6862A12C-EF36-4E42-99E5-10E811D9EFCD.jpeg

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

This to my SW

from this to this in ten minutes.

DSC02767.thumb.JPG.8e5389ecd9f12157d22ea2a41f669eab.JPGDSC02768.thumb.JPG.ff64178a4608e81444f80dab06650f7c.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Getting quite dark to my east now.

D8022F7D-4C28-47F3-B5D2-5F533B7BC6FB.jpeg

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