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Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards


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This is where I usually use Ventusky, it’s good as a (very) vague guide to what’s in store - and I mean general synoptic trends.

At closer range it seems to be a little bit indecisive, and doesn’t really ever give much of a consistent message, which is when I’ll focus on something like Metcheck, or - and I’m being serious here - google weather.

When we’re within 48 hours UKWW is a good source of information and opinion as well as right here on Netweather (of course), and then when we’re into the 24hr window ConvectiveWeather comes into play along with Estofex.

Thats usually how I watch these things unfold anyway.

Next week does look better for more exciting weather - but for the time being I’m loving this wall to wall sunshine ☀️☀️☀️

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I got this about 15-20 minutes ago from the London cell. I'm very shocked I got this.

Timing is key for Thursday - we've mentioned before how both the phasing and shape/characteristics of the mid/upper level trough will ultimately determine how many thunderstorms (if any) develop. Mode

My sister got this great pic from leith hill tower 

Posted Images

Well, this is boring isn't it? So far this year I've had one faint cloud fart 2 weekends ago from a storm that (as usual) bred here, drifted over to essex and then fired up like a xmas tree. ? Same old same old. Happens every. single. time. Everything else has missed us completely. The last few years have been, to put it mildly, pants for storms round here. We seem to be in a no mans land that started about 5 years ago where the rest of the uk (in particular wales, scotland, ireland, essex and east anglia) get storms regularly show up on radar and 20 miles from the south east coast across the water in france, but here in south east london/north east kent...(crickets).

 

Don't know why this is. Could it possibly be due to solar minimum? And why would it affect only this corner of the country which is usually the hottest place on the island and therefore has one of the key ingredients for storms? I'm just guessing here, trying to find a pattern so I can understand whats going on.

 

Ah, sorry people. Don't mean to depress/annoy anyone. I'm just thinking out loud here and am just extremely frustrated with the lack of storms. I take every storm forecast now with a huge pinch of salt now (even the ones that have looked promising yielded nothing whatsosver while the other usual suspects got the goodies). We're halfway through spring storm season now and so far nothing. I just get the feeling this is going to be yet another dismal year for storms around these parts.?

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11 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Well, this is boring isn't it? ...........

If you're interested, there's some brief and interesting discussion here, from from the folks on UKWW  a couple of months ago regarding solar cycles/lightning activity, starting with Stuart's post on 21st Feb: 

WWW.UKWEATHERWORLD.CO.UK

Cross posted but thought relevant, strike and house fire in Plymouth, https://www.bbc.co.u...-devon-51551065

 

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I don't see any point being bothered about the lack of storms any more in the UK. I've lived all over the UK but in my former location (also northern England) and here, a "thunderstorm" is a joke at best and at worst there are simply none at all and that's most years. Honestly if I was that bothered about it I'd just take the cheapest package deal to the most thundery place in Europe (med in October maybe) or if I had a bit more money Florida in July. I've given up caring about thunderstorms long, long ago. So now I just laugh when another summer passes and we haven't had one. Who cares anyway?

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28 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

^ here the main month for thunder is usually July like clockwork and also night time storms have been common in recent years.

Yeah even Scotland gets more storms than Sheffield, says it all really!

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3 hours ago, Thundershine said:

I don't see any point being bothered about the lack of storms any more in the UK. I've lived all over the UK but in my former location (also northern England) and here, a "thunderstorm" is a joke at best and at worst there are simply none at all and that's most years. Honestly if I was that bothered about it I'd just take the cheapest package deal to the most thundery place in Europe (med in October maybe) or if I had a bit more money Florida in July. I've given up caring about thunderstorms long, long ago. So now I just laugh when another summer passes and we haven't had one. Who cares anyway?

Well, we are in the storms and convective discussion thread, for people who enjoy storms ?. I'm sorry you seem to have had even worse luck when it comes to storms. I wonder why some places are almost devoid of activity? 

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6 hours ago, lancem said:

If you're interested, there's some brief and interesting discussion here, from from the folks on UKWW  a couple of months ago regarding solar cycles/lightning activity, starting with Stuart's post on 21st Feb: 

WWW.UKWEATHERWORLD.CO.UK

Cross posted but thought relevant, strike and house fire in Plymouth, https://www.bbc.co.u...-devon-51551065

 

Fantastic, thank you! There certainly seems a link there between solar cycles and storm activity. 

Edited by Windblade
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41 minutes ago, Windblade said:

 

Well, we are in the storms and convective discussion thread, for people who enjoy storms ?. I'm sorry you seem to have had even worse luck when it comes to storms. I wonder why some places are almost devoid of activity? 

Oh I love storms, but nothing in this part of the world interests me in the least. I don't get excited by a few distant rumbles. I'll be going to New Orleans in August in one of the next few years so I'm looking forward to getting my storm fix then!

Sheffield seems to be in a "black hole" for storms maybe because of the pennines immediately to the west/north?

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On 21/04/2020 at 12:50, Windblade said:

Well, this is boring isn't it? So far this year I've had one faint cloud fart 2 weekends ago from a storm that (as usual) bred here, drifted over to essex and then fired up like a xmas tree. ? Same old same old. Happens every. single. time. Everything else has missed us completely. The last few years have been, to put it mildly, pants for storms round here. We seem to be in a no mans land that started about 5 years ago where the rest of the uk (in particular wales, scotland, ireland, essex and east anglia) get storms regularly show up on radar and 20 miles from the south east coast across the water in france, but here in south east london/north east kent...(crickets).

 

Don't know why this is. Could it possibly be due to solar minimum? And why would it affect only this corner of the country which is usually the hottest place on the island and therefore has one of the key ingredients for storms? I'm just guessing here, trying to find a pattern so I can understand whats going on.

 

Ah, sorry people. Don't mean to depress/annoy anyone. I'm just thinking out loud here and am just extremely frustrated with the lack of storms. I take every storm forecast now with a huge pinch of salt now (even the ones that have looked promising yielded nothing whatsosver while the other usual suspects got the goodies). We're halfway through spring storm season now and so far nothing. I just get the feeling this is going to be yet another dismal year for storms around these parts.?

Chin up it’s only August, another month to go until winter really kicks in ?

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I live just round the corner from you @Windblade and I don’t think the past few years have been pants - on the contrary, in the past few years I’ve seen some of the most electrically active storms ever (in the UK). In terms of frequency, pretty much about average I’d say overall really.

We did have a very quiet start to the year a few years ago (can’t remember which, maybe 2017??) and then it went nuts from June onwards with rounds of intense storms over the following months. 

I’m enjoying the crystal clear skies and hope for a nice storm season, even if I have to wait til June/July ?

 

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44 minutes ago, Harry said:

I live just round the corner from you @Windblade and I don’t think the past few years have been pants - on the contrary, in the past few years I’ve seen some of the most electrically active storms ever (in the UK). In terms of frequency, pretty much about average I’d say overall really.

We did have a very quiet start to the year a few years ago (can’t remember which, maybe 2017??) and then it went nuts from June onwards with rounds of intense storms over the following months. 

I’m enjoying the crystal clear skies and hope for a nice storm season, even if I have to wait til June/July ?

 

You may only need wait until Sunday

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16 minutes ago, Harry said:

I live just round the corner from you @Windblade and I don’t think the past few years have been pants - on the contrary, in the past few years I’ve seen some of the most electrically active storms ever (in the UK). In terms of frequency, pretty much about average I’d say overall really.

We did have a very quiet start to the year a few years ago (can’t remember which, maybe 2017??) and then it went nuts from June onwards with rounds of intense storms over the following months. 

I’m enjoying the crystal clear skies and hope for a nice storm season, even if I have to wait til June/July ?

 

Here in 2016 it was exactly like that. Very quiet for the first couple of months of the 2016 storm season (except from a potent little storm on April 14) and in June, all of the storms erupted. 

I remember the beginning of June being very thundery. One June day that stood out was the 7th. A thunderstorm developed over N London and intensified rapidly as it reached here, with the anvil of the storm roughly being the size of Northern Ireland. When the storm arrived, it produced the most frequent daytime lightning I have ever witnessed in the UK. Almost all of the bolts were CGs and were actually striking in front of the main band of rain, instead of inside it. After the rain arrived, it started producing +CGs, with every loud crackle of the thunder shaking the ground. 

I have a couple of videos of the storm too, with the first one being 16 minutes long shortened into just under 2 minutes.

 

I remember the few days after that were also very thundery, in which I don't have any videos of those storms unfortunately. 

The rest of June once again produced absolute corkers, most of them I didn't get on video but I got this on the 25 June 2016.

 

In my opinion, July was as good as June, despite the month having less storms. Why? Because I managed to see two funnel clouds in July. I remember the first funnel cloud was at the beginning of July when I was in a PE lesson in Year 7/8 playing rounders and one of my friends said to my PE teacher 'Is that a tornado?' I didn't see anything at first but when I looked behind the tall tree, there was, fair enough, a massive rotating tube not far above the ground. In fact, there could of been some rotation at ground level. It looked exactly like the Wakefield tornado. The second funnel cloud was at the end of July, and at the time I'm pretty sure it was over south Cambridge. Don't have any videos of them both unfortunately once again.

So yes, 2016 was the most thundery year in my 16 years and 8 months of living. Hopefully 2020 storm season will be as good! ?

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It'll be 3 years on May 27th since a direct hit thunderstorm occurred here. Only seen a few flashes in the distance since then.

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Storms here have undergone a startling decrease in frequency since around 2007.

Having said that, last year my ONE storm of the year was one of the most intense I’ve ever seen (the one in July).

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WWW.METCHECK.COM

Metcheck.com - Weekly Storm Forecast - From 23 April 2020 - Expert meteorologists take a weekly look at thunderstorm potential around the world with maps and in depth view of where will see...

A trickle of potential to keep an eye on over the weekend it would seem. 

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 23 Apr 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 24 Apr 2020

ISSUED 10:57 UTC Thu 23 Apr 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Daytime-heating driven convection over NW France will decay as it drifts towards the Channel Islands on Thursday evening. However, as the upper ridge over the British Isles gradually retreats to the Continent, a PV filament drifting north from France across the English Channel may just provide enough forcing, combined with a moistening of the mid-levels, to enable some elevated convection to occur during the early hours of Friday. The relatively shallow depth of convection and weak CAPE suggests that lightning will be isolated at best, if any at all, despite the presence of a few high-based showers.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-04-23

 

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 24 Apr 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 25 Apr 2020

ISSUED 18:48 UTC Thu 23 Apr 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Increasing mid-level moisture across the English Channel and SW Britain will bring more in the way of mid-level cloud, and the threat of a few elevated showers over Channel regions first thing on Friday morning. Diurnal heating inland may lead to convective cloud development, especially where low-level convergence aids lift, with a few isolated heavy showers developing - more especially when enhanced by upslope flow over topographical features. Weak mid-level lapse rates, meagre CAPE and somewhat subsided profiles suggests convection will be shallow and lightning is very unlikely (5%).

A slightly higher risk is likely to exist over SW Ireland on Friday afternoon / early evening, where better low-level moisture pooling and greater proximity to an upper vortex just offshore, and associated steeper lapse rates, may result in some slightly deeper convection. Here a risk of local flash flooding will be present, given slow storm motion and prolonged heavy downpours. The risk of lightning is still considered very low (<10%).

A subtle PV max will drift northwards from France on Friday night across the English Channel, and this may maintain a few elevated showers here and over SW Britain.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-04-24

 

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On 23/04/2020 at 10:37, Azazel said:

Storms here have undergone a startling decrease in frequency since around 2007.

Having said that, last year my ONE storm of the year was one of the most intense I’ve ever seen (the one in July).

I think that was the evening I drove to Birdlip for the high risk zone, and then watched as storms broke out in the channel and headed NE across Surrey and Hants. Could’ve stayed put and it would have been perfect.

Saying that, the storms in the southwest did go utterly mad that night, so I didn’t leave empty-handed.

Big UK storm events are usually fairly tame - compared to what they get in other parts of the world - but I think the word ‘severe’ was wholly warranted for that night as the storms that passed over where I ended up were ferocious.

I’ll see if I can find some video from it, somewhere on the laptop...

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Gad, Carruthers...  The heat, the flies and the dust.   ?

Monday looks like it might be interesting.  I have not seen a decent thunderstorm here in Reigate since 2018. Perhaps things might perk up?

121558384.gif

Edited by StormLoser
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5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

First thunder day of 2020 here confirmed ?

thunder.png

Having a look at the wrf nmm nothing really jumping out though some precip shown moving NW-SE looks to be due to that trough but CAPE values don’t suggest thundery to me ATM. 33FE003F-56BA-49C9-AFF3-F2BDE64F890F.thumb.png.3c4dade59f5cfe71b62ba1d7442c25e7.png

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2 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Having a look at the wrf nmm nothing really jumping out though some precip shown moving NW-SE looks to be due to that trough but CAPE values don’t suggest thundery to me ATM. 

That's because Zak's picture shows the 3rd of May. ?

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