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Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

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I find the enthusiasm for a bit of thunder on this thread most uplifting, if only the air parcels were just as uplifting, with all the right conditions, and no cap in place.

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There could even be some interest from as early as Tuesday going by GFS.

Nothing to get excited about at this stage, and I'm a pessimist after all 😉 just pointing out it's something to keep an eye on. I'd honestly settle for some heavy showers given the situation

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Was gunna say but not to be pedantic its 5 or 6 days away not 7 lol

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1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Was gunna say but not to be pedantic its 5 or 6 days away not 7 lol

i'm taking it with a pinch of salt as we all know what goofus is like, see what Euro4 etc say 

 

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GFS has dewpoints of like 18 degrees and nearly 10 degree isotherm mid next week. Maybe not intense storms, but some warm showers occuring before northerly plunge occurs probs.

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2 minutes ago, Jacky said:

GFS has dewpoints of like 18 degrees and nearly 10 degree isotherm mid next week. Maybe not intense storms, but some warm showers occuring before northerly plunge occurs probs.

The legacy GFS always went overboard with dewpoints in the mid-range and I believe it still does on the newer version. That's why it projects the high CAPE and everybody gets overexcited.

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3 hours ago, Zak M said:

Not too sure what your post is about. No one is getting excited over it.

It was a sarcastic attempt to temper hopes of people who got overexcited at the last set of stormy charts a week out which then faded to very little thundery activity once the time came!

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I never get excited unless anythings within a couple of days, same applies with snow. You can never trust it not to go wrong even at short notice. 

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 29 May 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 30 May 2020

ISSUED 20:07 UTC Thu 28 May 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Substantial upper ridging covers the British Isles on Friday, extending northeastwards towards Scandinavia. Meanwhile a disrupting upper trough over the Atlantic gradually approaches from the west. The net result is a strong southerly flow aloft across Ireland and western Scotland, with heights slowly falling during the forecast period. A plume of relatively high Theta-W will be drawn northwards, just to the west of Ireland, over the Atlantic. Subtle impulses embedded within the strong southerly flow aloft throughout this forecast period may engage with this plume, gradually moistening/cooling the mid-levels to increase mid-level instability, and potentially develop a few elevated showers/thunderstorms in a relatively narrow north-south line.

However, this appears very finely-balanced, and model guidance varies in extent (if any) of convective precipitation. The main focus will be offshore, but not by much - hence the inclusion of a LOW threat level - although the overall greatest risk of lightning will probably further north along similar latitudes to the Hebrides. The instability axis may drift a little closer to western Ireland for a time on Friday evening, before retreating back west again overnight. If confidence increases a little, we may consider introducing a SLGT for the extreme west coast perhaps.

Elsewhere, surface heating will yield some substantial SBCAPE over the NW Highlands on Friday afternoon - however, given a deeply mixed boundary layer and capping inversion around ~800mb, this is likely to inhibit deep convection. That said, some convective cloud may develop and an isolated shower cannot be ruled out but the risk of lightning is considered rather low.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-05-29

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5 hours ago, Andy Bown said:

Only 7 days away!!!!!!! Cue mass hysteria then mass wailing when the weather has taken away your chart promised storms!!!!!!!

I wouldn’t worry I think most if not all of the posts earlier were from members who understand the risk of looking into the mists of FI for answers...

I’m liking the charts for next week as they currently stand, and remembering that we’ve had about 9 missed opportunities already this year (IMBY speaking) so quite overdue a lucky break.

Yeah it’ll probably hang on in the charts until Monday and then vanish in an instant, like a fly from off of a hot chip. I don’t mind really, quite enjoy the game 😅

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

The legacy GFS always went overboard with dewpoints in the mid-range and I believe it still does on the newer version. That's why it projects the high CAPE and everybody gets overexcited.

Just wondering if the lack of aircraft obs might be reducing the accuracy of the models in general at the moment. I’m aware they’ve got new lidar satellites in operation which are taking up the slack - to some degree - but was still curious if we’re actually getting the most reliable data out of the supercomputers while a lot of commercial planes are grounded.

Anyone have any thoughts?

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