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Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight

There could even be some interest from as early as Tuesday going by GFS.

Nothing to get excited about at this stage, and I'm a pessimist after all  just pointing out it's something to keep an eye on. I'd honestly settle for some heavy showers given the situation

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Was gunna say but not to be pedantic its 5 or 6 days away not 7 lol

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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Was gunna say but not to be pedantic its 5 or 6 days away not 7 lol

i'm taking it with a pinch of salt as we all know what goofus is like, see what Euro4 etc say 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, thunderstorms, warmth, sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl

GFS has dewpoints of like 18 degrees and nearly 10 degree isotherm mid next week. Maybe not intense storms, but some warm showers occuring before northerly plunge occurs probs.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
2 minutes ago, Jacky said:

GFS has dewpoints of like 18 degrees and nearly 10 degree isotherm mid next week. Maybe not intense storms, but some warm showers occuring before northerly plunge occurs probs.

The legacy GFS always went overboard with dewpoints in the mid-range and I believe it still does on the newer version. That's why it projects the high CAPE and everybody gets overexcited.

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
3 hours ago, Zak M said:

Not too sure what your post is about. No one is getting excited over it.

It was a sarcastic attempt to temper hopes of people who got overexcited at the last set of stormy charts a week out which then faded to very little thundery activity once the time came!

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

I never get excited unless anythings within a couple of days, same applies with snow. You can never trust it not to go wrong even at short notice. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 29 May 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 30 May 2020

ISSUED 20:07 UTC Thu 28 May 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Substantial upper ridging covers the British Isles on Friday, extending northeastwards towards Scandinavia. Meanwhile a disrupting upper trough over the Atlantic gradually approaches from the west. The net result is a strong southerly flow aloft across Ireland and western Scotland, with heights slowly falling during the forecast period. A plume of relatively high Theta-W will be drawn northwards, just to the west of Ireland, over the Atlantic. Subtle impulses embedded within the strong southerly flow aloft throughout this forecast period may engage with this plume, gradually moistening/cooling the mid-levels to increase mid-level instability, and potentially develop a few elevated showers/thunderstorms in a relatively narrow north-south line.

However, this appears very finely-balanced, and model guidance varies in extent (if any) of convective precipitation. The main focus will be offshore, but not by much - hence the inclusion of a LOW threat level - although the overall greatest risk of lightning will probably further north along similar latitudes to the Hebrides. The instability axis may drift a little closer to western Ireland for a time on Friday evening, before retreating back west again overnight. If confidence increases a little, we may consider introducing a SLGT for the extreme west coast perhaps.

Elsewhere, surface heating will yield some substantial SBCAPE over the NW Highlands on Friday afternoon - however, given a deeply mixed boundary layer and capping inversion around ~800mb, this is likely to inhibit deep convection. That said, some convective cloud may develop and an isolated shower cannot be ruled out but the risk of lightning is considered rather low.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-05-29

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
5 hours ago, Andy Bown said:

Only 7 days away!!!!!!! Cue mass hysteria then mass wailing when the weather has taken away your chart promised storms!!!!!!!

I wouldn’t worry I think most if not all of the posts earlier were from members who understand the risk of looking into the mists of FI for answers...

I’m liking the charts for next week as they currently stand, and remembering that we’ve had about 9 missed opportunities already this year (IMBY speaking) so quite overdue a lucky break.

Yeah it’ll probably hang on in the charts until Monday and then vanish in an instant, like a fly from off of a hot chip. I don’t mind really, quite enjoy the game

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

The legacy GFS always went overboard with dewpoints in the mid-range and I believe it still does on the newer version. That's why it projects the high CAPE and everybody gets overexcited.

Just wondering if the lack of aircraft obs might be reducing the accuracy of the models in general at the moment. I’m aware they’ve got new lidar satellites in operation which are taking up the slack - to some degree - but was still curious if we’re actually getting the most reliable data out of the supercomputers while a lot of commercial planes are grounded.

Anyone have any thoughts?

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
12 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Just wondering if the lack of aircraft obs might be reducing the accuracy of the models in general at the moment. I’m aware they’ve got new lidar satellites in operation which are taking up the slack - to some degree - but was still curious if we’re actually getting the most reliable data out of the supercomputers while a lot of commercial planes are grounded.

Anyone have any thoughts?

Definitely a noticeable drop in the data to around 280mb on the 18z run compared to the average size of 855mb on the normal 18z run. 

image.png

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, thunderstorms, warmth, sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl

Does look like by next Wednesday, only five days away atmosphere becoming unstable as that warm low drifts closer to uk. Maybe some showers or thundery stuff but needs watching. Majority of precipitation may come from this too which farmers and gardeners needs too. Cold plunge after? Probably but details uncertain for now.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
3 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

Definitely a noticeable drop in the data to around 280mb on the 18z run compared to the average size of 855mb on the normal 18z run. 

image.png

image.png

I doubt its just the gfs, it's going to be all models, up until there's more normal air coverage, I'm not sure about shipping, whether there might be some cut backs in that department too. 

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
Just now, alexisj9 said:

I doubt its just the gfs, it's going to be all models, up until there's more normal air coverage, I'm not sure about shipping, whether there might be some cut backs in that department too. 

All models are going to be affected of course until this pandemic is over. Another notable thing is the lack of weather balloon data that isn't being retrieved. 

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
1 hour ago, Jamiee said:

All models are going to be affected of course until this pandemic is over. Another notable thing is the lack of weather balloon data that isn't being retrieved. 

Can they do the same thing with drones now?

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Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Convective Weather and Snow
  • Location: NW London

UKV for Wednesday! Looking fairly good but obviously subject to significant change as we saw from last Thursday. Hopefully something like this does materialise!

Screenshot 2020-05-30 at 09.07.03.png

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
2 hours ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

UKV for Wednesday! Looking fairly good but obviously subject to significant change as we saw from last Thursday. Hopefully something like this does materialise!

Screenshot 2020-05-30 at 09.07.03.png

You'd bloody hope so!

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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
28 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

You'd bloody hope so!

it will be probably just thundery showers during the day with a couple of claps of thunder, with the odd thunderstorm, I prefer storms during the day anyway 

Edited by viking_smb
extra text
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Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield
22 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Can they do the same thing with drones now?

Good question, drones versus weather balloons, drones apparently need air pressure for lift to fly at altitude,  so weather drones go up as far as 2.5km.  Weather balloons aim for between 18km to 39km.  So yes there are weather drones out there, but the info would be limited.  Info from Google.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
1 hour ago, Rush2112 said:

Good question, drones versus weather balloons, drones apparently need air pressure for lift to fly at altitude,  so weather drones go up as far as 2.5km.  Weather balloons aim for between 18km to 39km.  So yes there are weather drones out there, but the info would be limited.  Info from Google.

I thought this might be the case, any chance there’s a hybrid design that might work?

The real issue with weather balloons is the uncontrolled X/Y offset as it travels upward and then eventually falls back to Earth.

If you could somehow counteract this it would have huge benefits

 

edit: sorry I know it’s going a little off topic now

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Under Lyme
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Under Lyme
3 hours ago, Jamiee said:

I'm not even bothered by a thundery element anymore. I just want some rain!

Agreed! 21 days ago was our last significant rainfall here in Stoke, a lot longer for some of you Southerners! What a Spring.. 

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