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Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards


Supacell

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

On this day, 2 years ago, London was hit by one of the most remarkable thunderstorms of the decade. A cut off low near the end of May wafted up warmer air from the continent and resulted in multiple rounds of thunderstorms also for the majority of the UK.

gfs-0-132.thumb.png.63f54f199ac4644717c77bf90090a44d.png

The most popular was the 26-27 May 2018 overnight thunderstorm event in London, when an elevated thunderstorm developed off the coast of Kent. This then travelled NW into London and the home counties, producing some spectacular lightning displays.

1938939834_MyBlitzortungStrikeMap(1).thumb.png.d35d5ab25c39f36479170e1228abc4ea.png

This was from CW on that specific day:

"There are reasonable signs for an area of elevated convection to be drifting across S / SE England at the beginning of this forecast period, continuing to move NW-wards through Saturday morning. Questionable as to how much lightning there will be with this activity given weakening instability, though forecast profiles do suggest some reasonable shear to help with some organisation. Either way, whatever activity there is will likely weaken with time as it continues to migrate across the Midlands and into Wales.

A secondary pulse of elevated convection may develop and move NW-wards across SW England late morning into the afternoon, which would have a better chance of producing lightning - but this is a weaker signal amongst model guidance.

This then leaves a window of opportunity during the afternoon for surface-based thunderstorms to occur. However, the atmosphere will be largely capped by a warm nose at 850-900mb, and so despite increasing instability it is possible very little will actually develop. Greatest potential perhaps across Dorset, Somerset and Gloucestershire, but this very much dependent on enough surface heating to break the cap, which is uncertain due to the potential for extensive mid/upper level cloud associated with earlier elevated convection. Should an isolated thunderstorm develop, it may be severe, capable of producing hail up to 2.0cm in diameter and localised surface water flooding.

The potential for thunderstorms then increases during Saturday evening and night, with numerous elevated thunderstorms likely to develop over the English Channel containing frequent lightning and perhaps some hail. The vast majority of model guidance would suggest thunderstorms will move to the NW, putting SW England and the West Country at greatest risk, broadly Isle of Wight westwards. However, ECMWF has been very consistent over several runs (now joined by 12z EURO4) to produce a much more bifurcated flow, which would then take a very active cluster of thunderstorms NE-wards over Hampshire, Sussex and towards the London area by the early hours of Sunday.

Given the large spread of possible areas affected, it is difficult to pin down a MDT area with any significant confidence - though worth stressing the ECMWF (and EURO4) tends to have a good handle of elevated convection, and its consistent signal over multiple runs is somewhat reassuring. As a result, have followed these trends for the MDT - though if other models are correct, this may need shifting westwards to cover more of Devon and Cornwall."

https://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-05-26

largethumb.thumb.png.8d14e4a7dfd138c1fa3435829b7513f9.png

Here are some videos of that London storm:

 

 

 

 

 

Also on this day, 3 years ago, severe thunderstorms hit parts of SW England, with Plymouth by the looks of it being hit the worst. A thunderstorm developed in NW France and was travelling NW, hitting Cornwall, Dorset, Devon and Somerset in its path. These areas were once again treated to one of the most spectacular lightning displays of the decade.

MyBlitzortungStrikeMap.thumb.png.7c32fcde6f166d499f0a4efea8ac4b26.png

From CW on that day:

"A large-scale upper trough will approach Ireland from the west during Friday and in combination with a ridge to the east, will help to pull in a moist, unstable airmass from the south. A pre-cold frontal trough is expected to move into western Ireland during the afternoon and in combination with daytime heating and SBCAPE of 500-800j/kg should be enough generate surface based thunderstorms that could quickly become quite electrically active (initiation of thunderstorms in the Irish slight area is expected between 15-16z). Otherwise more isolated embedded thunderstorms may cross Ireland from west to east as the cold front moves through during Friday evening. 

Overnight the cold front will continue to progress eastwards and an area of midlevel instability will spread out of France and across the Channel into southern/southwestern England towards the end of the night.  MUCAPE of 600-800j/kg will move into the slight risk region in Britain towards the end of the night. Mid-level thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of Devon and Dorset around 02-03z on Saturday morning. This area of mid-level thunderstorms will continue NNW into Wales through the end of the night and into Saturday morning."

https://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-26

1194927431_largethumb(1).thumb.png.59b226c7e7ba7253216c3d20ac3921a8.png

Here are some videos of the big thunderstorm:

 

 

 

 

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

As I said last night, I didn't get anything overhead that night but did get a decent show. This is just a short clip of it but it went on for quite a while. 

 

Edited by matt111
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

I was gutted to miss the 2018 storms having flown off abroad days before, but May 27th brought thunderstorms here in 2016, 2017 and 2018 alike. A little bit like how May 10th produced thunderstorms in 2000, 2001, 2004, 2006 and 2008.

Those 2017 storms were amazing, and round 2 arrived in mid July. Two spectacular shows in one summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

I remember a storm in the SE I think it must have been the 2018 one (not many to choose from really lol). It should have been excellent and does look so ok radar but you’ve got to judge these things based on ground observations as well as radar, and if this is the storm I’m thinking off it was a nightmare to chase.

I caught it in my usual spot near the Hampshire Hog pub down in Waterlooville, it was good but not a patch on others I’ve seein the same spot. Heading home I followed it, but the rain was awful. Massive convective heavy stuff making any observation or capture of the lightning impossible. Also most of the electrical activity was inside the cloud with only a few visible forks. I’ve heard it was much better in east London outside of the main rain bands - but I remember just being really disappointed with it all.

A very very wet import - definately not one of my favourites probably not even in my top 10!

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

As a side note to the reminiscing of 2 years ago. There were 3 rounds of storms around Warminster.

The first a brief severe storm on the Saturday evening, the second as part of the amazing light show for several hours after midnight and the third an unexpected development mid morning on the Sunday with a back builder which produced repeated deafening thunder and the most rain of the 3 rounds.

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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk

I remember 2018 for being awful regarding storms. Only one with any noteworthy lightning i.e. more than one flash every couple of minutes. Almost as bad as 2017, 2016......

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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF

2018 or 2019 july we had a massive storm overnight it was a tues eve and the only thing I remember at 10pm was nothing on radar, then about 20 past 10 strike in swansea, then whole of torbay was full of strikes within 5 minutes, and i didnt hear a thing when asleep, 

Edited by viking_smb
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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
9 hours ago, Zak M said:

On this day, 2 years ago, London was hit by one of the most remarkable thunderstorms of the decade. A cut off low near the end of May wafted up warmer air from the continent and resulted in multiple rounds of thunderstorms also for the majority of the UK.

gfs-0-132.thumb.png.63f54f199ac4644717c77bf90090a44d.png

The most popular was the 26-27 May 2018 overnight thunderstorm event in London, when an elevated thunderstorm developed off the coast of Kent. This then travelled NW into London and the home counties, producing some spectacular lightning displays.

1938939834_MyBlitzortungStrikeMap(1).thumb.png.d35d5ab25c39f36479170e1228abc4ea.png

This was from CW on that specific day:

"There are reasonable signs for an area of elevated convection to be drifting across S / SE England at the beginning of this forecast period, continuing to move NW-wards through Saturday morning. Questionable as to how much lightning there will be with this activity given weakening instability, though forecast profiles do suggest some reasonable shear to help with some organisation. Either way, whatever activity there is will likely weaken with time as it continues to migrate across the Midlands and into Wales.

A secondary pulse of elevated convection may develop and move NW-wards across SW England late morning into the afternoon, which would have a better chance of producing lightning - but this is a weaker signal amongst model guidance.

This then leaves a window of opportunity during the afternoon for surface-based thunderstorms to occur. However, the atmosphere will be largely capped by a warm nose at 850-900mb, and so despite increasing instability it is possible very little will actually develop. Greatest potential perhaps across Dorset, Somerset and Gloucestershire, but this very much dependent on enough surface heating to break the cap, which is uncertain due to the potential for extensive mid/upper level cloud associated with earlier elevated convection. Should an isolated thunderstorm develop, it may be severe, capable of producing hail up to 2.0cm in diameter and localised surface water flooding.

The potential for thunderstorms then increases during Saturday evening and night, with numerous elevated thunderstorms likely to develop over the English Channel containing frequent lightning and perhaps some hail. The vast majority of model guidance would suggest thunderstorms will move to the NW, putting SW England and the West Country at greatest risk, broadly Isle of Wight westwards. However, ECMWF has been very consistent over several runs (now joined by 12z EURO4) to produce a much more bifurcated flow, which would then take a very active cluster of thunderstorms NE-wards over Hampshire, Sussex and towards the London area by the early hours of Sunday.

Given the large spread of possible areas affected, it is difficult to pin down a MDT area with any significant confidence - though worth stressing the ECMWF (and EURO4) tends to have a good handle of elevated convection, and its consistent signal over multiple runs is somewhat reassuring. As a result, have followed these trends for the MDT - though if other models are correct, this may need shifting westwards to cover more of Devon and Cornwall."

https://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-05-26

largethumb.thumb.png.8d14e4a7dfd138c1fa3435829b7513f9.png

Here are some videos of that London storm:

 

 

 

 

 

Also on this day, 3 years ago, severe thunderstorms hit parts of SW England, with Plymouth by the looks of it being hit the worst. A thunderstorm developed in NW France and was travelling NW, hitting Cornwall, Dorset, Devon and Somerset in its path. These areas were once again treated to one of the most spectacular lightning displays of the decade.

MyBlitzortungStrikeMap.thumb.png.7c32fcde6f166d499f0a4efea8ac4b26.png

From CW on that day:

"A large-scale upper trough will approach Ireland from the west during Friday and in combination with a ridge to the east, will help to pull in a moist, unstable airmass from the south. A pre-cold frontal trough is expected to move into western Ireland during the afternoon and in combination with daytime heating and SBCAPE of 500-800j/kg should be enough generate surface based thunderstorms that could quickly become quite electrically active (initiation of thunderstorms in the Irish slight area is expected between 15-16z). Otherwise more isolated embedded thunderstorms may cross Ireland from west to east as the cold front moves through during Friday evening. 

Overnight the cold front will continue to progress eastwards and an area of midlevel instability will spread out of France and across the Channel into southern/southwestern England towards the end of the night.  MUCAPE of 600-800j/kg will move into the slight risk region in Britain towards the end of the night. Mid-level thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of Devon and Dorset around 02-03z on Saturday morning. This area of mid-level thunderstorms will continue NNW into Wales through the end of the night and into Saturday morning."

https://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-26

1194927431_largethumb(1).thumb.png.59b226c7e7ba7253216c3d20ac3921a8.png

Here are some videos of the big thunderstorm:

 

 

 

 

Sorry to quote the whole thing but re: that Plymouth storm - yes that was amazing. I was in Florence at the time and remember watching it on a webcam. Thought there was a feed problem but it was just all the lightning. Ironic that at the time Italy had had a really quiet week stormwise so I was enviously watching the UK lol.

Probably one of the best storms the UK has seen. Period.

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
WWW.METCHECK.COM

Metcheck.com - Weekly Storm Forecast - From 27 May 2020 - Expert meteorologists take a weekly look at thunderstorm potential around the world with maps and in depth view of where will see...

 

The slightest bit of hope for next week. I get the impression the first half of June's already a write-off though, short of a much-needed big pattern-shift soon.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, thunderstorms, warmth, sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl

Here in the Midlands, Think it was the next day where we got violent storms, Firstly woke up at night by accident around 2am to open the curtains and see constant light before my eyes and torrential rain. it was amazing. Distant rumbles continued into the morning strangely when there usually isn't storms as not much day time heating (so they were elevated ones). There was a nearby storm to the south west 9am and sun coming out too as if a clearing after the storm.

Throughout morning and into early mid afternoon it was very warm and humid and i thought more would form. They indeed did and Met Office isssues amber thundnerstorm warning for me as torrential rain expected. eventually formed just to my south and was quite slow moving. They did kinda skip oiver me so rain wasn't too special. However quite frequent thunder and lightning to my north throughout rest of afternoon. One of my best memories of thunder (don't really remember June 28th or July 1st 2015) apart from July 2019 which we'll get to the 1 yr anniversary of that soon.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Evening all, had to share these two YouTube videos I’ve watched over the past couple of days.

The first video in particular goes through a supercells anatomy in some detail (without you needing to have a degree in meteorology), while the second focuses much more on storm spotting and visual features of storms. 

Found them both really interesting so thought I’d share.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
1 hour ago, Harry said:

Evening all, had to share these two YouTube videos I’ve watched over the past couple of days.

The first video in particular goes through a supercells anatomy in some detail (without you needing to have a degree in meteorology), while the second focuses much more on storm spotting and visual features of storms. 

Found them both really interesting so thought I’d share.

 

 

Would highly recommend following skip talbot for amazing and informative storm chase stuff. He doesn’t do all of the screaming shaky camera stuff. Also look up Pecos Hank who has a slightly different style but equally as informative videos. 

Wow those videos from 2018 are amazing. Definitely the benchmark for the uk in terms of lightning rate. 
 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, thunderstorms, warmth, sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
49 minutes ago, John90 said:

Would highly recommend following skip talbot for amazing and informative storm chase stuff. He doesn’t do all of the screaming shaky camera stuff. Also look up Pecos Hank who has a slightly different style but equally as informative videos. 

Wow those videos from 2018 are amazing. Definitely the benchmark for the uk in terms of lightning rate. 
 

 

Yeah. Also Mike Olbinski and some others have those amazing timelapse and other informative vids

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

I personally think next week could deliver some fairly decent storms for parts of the southwest and kent. Just looking at the GFS runs. Wednesday has some activity at the moment but it’s shifting about a lot - as to be expected

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I personally think next week could deliver some fairly decent storms for parts of the southwest and kent. Just looking at the GFS runs. Wednesday has some activity at the moment but it’s shifting about a lot - as to be expected

I have high doubts at this point for any kind of convective activity. Maybe the odd shower but that's it in my opinion.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
2 hours ago, Jamiee said:

I have high doubts at this point for any kind of convective activity. Maybe the odd shower but that's it in my opinion.

Storms on MR this afternoon. Will have to wait till Monday to firm up on everythin g but I  might have to take back what I said 2 hours ago. 

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
1 minute ago, Jamiee said:

Storms on MR this afternoon. Will have to wait till Monday to firm up on everythin g but I  might have to take back what I said 2 hours ago. 

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Yeah, it's too early to make assumptions, enjoy the charts, you can always practice playing out a good scenario when the charts look good even if it doesn't materialise on the day

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
Just now, Greeny said:

Yeah, it's too early to make assumptions, enjoy the charts, you can always practice playing out a good scenario when the charts look good even if it doesn't materialise on the day

Nice to see the eye candy but you have to remember that it's going to get watered down. Good example of that was a week ago with the trough moving through too fast.

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
5 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

Nice to see the eye candy but you have to remember that it's going to get watered down. Good example of that was a week ago with the trough moving through too fast.

You never know though, it could move the other way, I know it's tough when you get a few busts etc but it could turn around one time for an epic show!

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
2 minutes ago, Greeny said:

You never know though, it could move the other way, I know it's tough when you get a few busts etc but it could turn around one time for an epic show!

Fingers crossed! 

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
25 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

Storms on MR this afternoon. Will have to wait till Monday to firm up on everythin g but I  might have to take back what I said 2 hours ago. 

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We're about to find out if the 12z GFS backs it up, it was on to the idea on the 6z...

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
16 minutes ago, Lance M said:

We're about to find out if the 12z GFS backs it up, it was on to the idea on the 6z...

And it's on the 12z run too.

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
3 minutes ago, Jamiee said:

And it's on the 12z run too.

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It looks tasty!

ukstormrisk.png

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

Only 7 days away!!!!!!! Cue mass hysteria then mass wailing when the weather has taken away your chart promised storms!!!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
13 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Only 7 days away!!!!!!! Cue mass hysteria then mass wailing when the weather has taken away your chart promised storms!!!!!!!

Not too sure what your post is about. No one is getting excited over it.

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