Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[Argyle10]

8 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Seems to happen a lot but they often appear on different sites at different times. 

Still nothing showing up on the sites though reckon they are false? 

[matt111]

Just now, Charlie Harnett said:

Still nothing showing up on the sites though reckon they are false? 

Nothing on the radar in those areas and there was nothing to suggest there would be anything tonight so I highly doubt they're real. 

[ChannelThunder]

ECM and GFS this morning showing next week's HP sliding to the east of the UK by the end of the week, which is where I always look for it to go in the summer to hopefully draw up a plume. Sadly, neither of them show a resulting plume, just a trough from the Atlantic instead. Could be one to watch though

Edited May 24, 2020 by Lance M

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Next Tuesday/weds looks like a possible import situation - looks almost NWly on GFS. Long way out still though

[Harry]

8 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Next Tuesday/weds looks like a possible import situation - looks almost NWly on GFS. Long way out still though

Not seeing it at the moment that said I prefer the T+24/48 events anyway. Seems as if it’ll be a while yet before we get anything proper anyway - I have an August looking lawn in May which is, for as long as I can remember, totally unprecedented. Hopefully when this drought breaks it’ll be a whopping MCS - just not seeing it on the cards at the moment sadly 

[tomp456]

Hi everyone. Here is the latest storm forecast, has been consistent with very little if any change, for at least the last decade.

 

[ChannelThunder]

The 18z GFS run tonight is dreamlike stuff for multiple thundery events next week and beyond. Not worth further speculation unless it shows on the next runs though.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

33 minutes ago, Lance M said:

The 18z GFS run tonight is dreamlike stuff for multiple thundery events next week and beyond. Not worth further speculation unless it shows on the next runs though.

Incredible if that was to come off. A perpetual quasi feed of multiple episodes of big storms drifting up from the continent! A convective lovers dream chart for sure. 

[Zak M]

Yes, tonights 18z GFS is giving me May 2018 flashbacks! Almost the exact same setup.

[matt111]

Didn't get anything here in May 2018 but do remember seeing a great light show from a storm that passed about 20 miles to the east on 26th May.

[Harry]

Not seeing anything particularly inspiring from the 00z and 06z runs 

[Daniel*]

Time to close thread! 

[Chris Lea-Alex]

And open a new one in July when the first big event takes place.

In all seriousness, I was looking at last year's Convective Weather archive and we didn't really get going until week 3 of June.  

[Eagle Eye]

[Eagle Eye]

[Eagle Eye]

Nice to small clouds developing does give some excitement

[Zak M]

There won't be any thunderstorms today - high pressure is slap bang over us.

[viking_smb]

6 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

Nice to small clouds developing does give some excitement

Chill 

[Dami]

REMEMBER!

Don't forget to show this thread some love!

[viking_smb]

Just now, Dami said:

REMEMBER!

Don't forget to show this thread some love!

yep and I know who to send over there as well. 

[Eagle Eye]

12 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

yep and I know who to send over there as well. 

if you were talking to me already looked, i have already had one

[ChannelThunder]

2 hours ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

And open a new one in July when the first big event takes place.

In all seriousness, I was looking at last year's Convective Weather archive and we didn't really get going until week 3 of June.  

Yeah, even last night's stormy GFS run is firmly off the cards now. The 12z instead takes the LP responsible across towards Norway instead of down the west of the UK! 

 

[Harry]

12 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Yeah, even last night's stormy GFS run is firmly off the cards now. The 12z instead takes the LP responsible across towards Norway instead of down the west of the UK! 

 

I really wouldn’t put much stock by the models for next week. GFS appears to be quite erratic in terms of how the omega blocking pattern will evolve, now suggesting a dominant mid Atlantic ridge will develop with areas of LP toppling over the top, bringing us into a much cooler flow later next week. ECM by contrast seems keen to develop a broad area of LP over Biscay with HP dominating across N Atlantic across into N Europe. If ECM for example is most accurate and we do see a Biscay low setting up, then any weakening in the ridge over the UK could reinstate GFS initial thoughts of plume type S/SErlies threatening southern parts of the UK...all to play for I’d suggest. What is clear is my garden is starting to resemble the Sahara - you’d think we are in mid August after a long hot spell, not May!
 

 

Edited May 26, 2020 by Harry

[ChannelThunder]

14 minutes ago, Harry said:

I really wouldn’t put much stock by the models for next week. GFS appears to be quite erratic in terms of how the omega blocking pattern will evolve, now suggesting a dominant mid Atlantic ridge will develop with areas of LP toppling over the top, bringing us into a much cooler flow later next week. ECM by contrast seems keen to develop a broad area of LP over Biscay with HP dominating across N Atlantic across into N Europe. If ECM for example is most accurate and we do see a Biscay low setting up, then any weakening in the ridge over the UK could reinstate GFS initial thoughts of plume type S/SErlies threatening southern parts of the UK...all to play for I’d suggest. What is clear is my garden is starting to resemble the Sahara - you’d think we are in mid August after a long hot spell, not May!
 

 

A good analysis, thank you! 

Yes, the lack of rain is of course a more serious concern. I'd appreciate just some decent frontal rainfall (just for 3 or 4 days to keep everyone happy), let alone rainfall delivered from a thundery spell. 

It'll be interesting to see what tonight's GFS does with the low. Will it be back to the track down from Greenland to Biscay?

Edited May 26, 2020 by Lance M

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 hours ago, Xanderp009 said:

You know, I was wondering it might be quicker to just post the individual frames and let us make the timelapse ourselves