Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[LightningLover]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

That you're a better forecaster and know a lot more than me 

Yeah I realised I misinterpreted that the moment I pressed send lol. Thank you, but my level of meteorological knowledge isn't exactly outstanding lol. Your forecasts are clear and concise, so please keep up the good work

Edited May 21, 2020 by LightningLover

[Mapantz]

I think storm activity looks very unlikely, with perhaps the coast of East Anglia standing the best chance, even then, slim.

[jake44]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I think storm activity looks very unlikely, with perhaps the coast of East Anglia standing the best chance, even then, slim.

yeah getting bit boring now but its says between 1 2 so fingers crossed

[Stabilo19]

11 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

Why do the sensors detect false lightning strikes, also why does the radar data show anaprop? 

 

Anaprop could be due to temperature inversions & changes in humidity that disrupt the radar beams. Seems to happen a lot with cold seas and warm air. Kind of matches the conditions we have now.

Edited May 21, 2020 by Stabilo19

[Zak M]

13 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

Amazing for cast thank you 

 

9 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Yeah I realised I misinterpreted that the moment I pressed send lol. Thank you, but my level of meteorological knowledge isn't exactly outstanding lol. Your forecasts are clear and concise, so please keep up the good work

Well, I never saw these two posts coming! Thanks  

[Stabilo19]

I think there's more chance of convective activity from the blustery showers on Saturday than anything tonight! 

[Zak M]

9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I think storm activity looks very unlikely, with perhaps the coast of East Anglia standing the best chance, even then, slim.

As much as I don't want to agree, I have to. The UKV does show a few hefty showers popping up in East Anglia along with a few other models although there isn't an awful lot of MUCAPE so lightning is not expected to be frequent. The UKV however shows them exploding into the North Sea once again - or should I say, Catatumbo!

[jake44]

1 minute ago, Stabilo19 said:

I think there's more chance of convective activity from the blustery showers on Saturday than anything tonight! 

i think your right

[matt111]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

As much as I don't want to agree, I have to. The UKV does show a few hefty showers popping up in East Anglia along with a few other models although there isn't an awful lot of MUCAPE so lightning is not expected to be frequent. The UKV however shows them exploding into the North Sea once again - or should I say, Catatumbo!

It does but similar to last night they've been diminishing each run it seems.

[jake44]

i was just looking at a rader and it said theres something popping up over south east england at 1 o clock could be intaresting

Edited May 21, 2020 by jake44
change

[jake44]

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

I smell development+

[jake44]

55 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

I smell development+

its looking pretty the temp outide is slowly going up at night how strange

Edited May 22, 2020 by jake44

[Ryukai]

25 minutes ago, jake44 said:

its looking pretty the temp outide is slowly going up at night how strange

Looking at the wunderground stations near to me and almost all of them are showing a temp increase that started about 1:50ish am o_O  I've actually closed the window now as there was a warm breeze coming INTO the house....

[Eagle Eye]

Wednesday next week has been creeping up on us

[Eagle Eye]

Saturday

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, Xanderp009 said:

Wednesday next week has been creeping up on us

It does do that

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 22 May 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 23 May 2020

ISSUED 08:48 UTC Fri 22 May 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Deep area of low to the west of Ireland will migrate northeastwards to pass close to the Outer Hebrides by Friday evening. Frontal rain will continue to clear eastwards across Scotland and England, although the wrap-around occlusion will feed persistent moist air of tropical origin onto the upslopes of western Scotland, bringing significant rain accumulations. South of the low, a strong southwesterly flow will feed a moist low-level airmass eastwards beneath a markedly dry mid/upper troposhere. Numerous showers are expected in Ireland and southern Scotland, aided by diurnal heating and subtle shortwaves moving through in the flow aloft. Convection will generally be restricted to below 700mb due to a mid-level capping inversion, although may be able to periodically push up to 600mb (ELTs around -20C) as shortwaves temporarily cool the mid-levels. Instability is a little meagre, generally around 100-300 J/kg CAPE, but 30-40kts shear in the cloud-bearing layer may aid in updraft/downdraft separation to sustain cells and produce a few isolated lightning strikes. 

Shower activity will probably be rather restricted across England and Wales during daylight hours on Friday due to a relatively shallow convective layer, however this is expected to deepen through the evening and night hours as the upper trough slowly advances southwards. Showers will be most prevalent over western hills, where moist low-level flow is forced up over high ground. The risk of lightning will therefore increase across western Britain during the evening and night hours, especially so perhaps over Cumbria / northern Pennines where a low-end SLGT (30% chance) has been introduced, but for most areas is still considered below SLGT threshold (20% chance). Parts of west and south Wales may also be considered for a low-end SLGT if confidence improves. Gusty winds and hail up to 1.0cm in diameter are possible from the strongest cells, particularly during the night hours.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-05-22

 

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

2 hours ago, Xanderp009 said:

Saturday

My forcast doesn't show this  ;-;

 

[Eagle Eye]

16:00

[Eagle Eye]

1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It does do that

it looked like it would be a thundery day but that seems to have changed

[Atmogenic]

1 hour ago, Xanderp009 said:

16:00

Yes 16:00 is 4pm

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

Yes 16:00 is 4pm

?

[viking_smb]

16:00 is 4pm in 24hr clock,

[Eagle Eye]

i know that that's why i put it