Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[Zak M]

Hopefully the high cloud that is supposed to roll in tonight won't affect any of the distant lightning that is possible... fingers crossed!

[Paul Sherman]

15 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Hopefully the high cloud that is supposed to roll in tonight won't affect any of the distant lightning that is possible... fingers crossed!

There should be some good ones in SW Kansas tonight if you look to your west 

[Zak M]

Just now, Paul Sherman said:

There should be some good ones in SW Kansas tonight if you look to your west 

Haha I wish mate 

[Argyle10]

24 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Hopefully the high cloud that is supposed to roll in tonight won't affect any of the distant lightning that is possible... fingers crossed!

Where is that possible?

 

[Panayiotis]

The high cloud coming in from the west has broken up allowing a bit more sun to break through to the SW. Looking at the satellite you can see how this sunshine is showing signs of further convection with clouds starting to tower from the south coast up to the welsh border. Will be interesting to see if this turns into something.. 

My bet is that this line of convection will move east, intensifying as it does (due to warmer air and more CAPE) and this is where the SE start to see signs of the forecasted thunderstorms.

Edited May 21, 2020 by Panayiotis

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

Took a lovely ride today  and got a nice picture with the teasing storm in the distance haha 

[Zak M]

3 minutes ago, Charlie Harnett said:

Where is that possible?

 

In eastern England.

[Eagle Eye]

just remembering the time lightning hit nearly the whole of england except me and then 2 days later i got a slow moving storm that had a not very great structure and had slow lightning about one a minute and then it went crazy and about 2000 every 5 minutes (25 july 2019) the storm that missed me on the (23 july into the 24 th july)

Edited May 21, 2020 by Xanderp009

[Argyle10]

32 minutes ago, Zak M said:

 

 

3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

In eastern England.

Cool, among show in North Cornwall this morning

 

[Zak M]

1 minute ago, Xanderp009 said:

just remembering the time lightning hit nearly the whole of england except me and then 2 days later i got a slow moving storm that had a not very great structure and had slow lightning about one a minute and then it went crazy and about 2000 every 5 minutes (25 july 2019) the storm that missed me on the (23 july)

400 strikes per minute?

[Eagle Eye]

pretty much i could hardly see

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

400 strikes per minute?

Any storm activity tonight for me? Just curious 

 

[Zak M]

Just now, Mitch perrott said:

Any storm activity tonight for me? Just curious 

 

Haha you are as desperate for lightning as I am Mitch! I don't think anything will develop right overhead where you are, but you could see some distant lightning to your north.

[Stabilo19]

10 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

The high cloud coming in from the west has broken up allowing a bit more sun to break through to the SW. Looking at the satellite you can see how this sunshine is showing signs of further convection with clouds starting to tower from the south coast up to the welsh border. Will be interesting to see if this turns into something.. 

My bet is that this line of convection will move east, intensifying as it does (due to warmer air and more CAPE) and this is where the SE start to see signs of the forecasted thunderstorms.

Looks more like the sunset is creating shadows among existing clouds IMO but we shall see, could be a surprise or two overnight.. 

[Eagle Eye]

do you know how far north for him

[Argyle10]

2 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

Looks more like the sunset is creating shadows among existing clouds IMO but we shall see, could be a surprise or two overnight.. 

Any chance in North Cornwall?

 

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Haha you are as desperate for lightning as I am Mitch! I don't think anything will develop right overhead where you are, but you could see some distant lightning to your north.

You know we might get a storm develop on the coast though tonight if we have a miracle 

[matt111]

UKV still interested in something near the east coast. 

Edited May 21, 2020 by matt111

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

1 minute ago, matt111 said:

UKV still interested in something near the east coast. 

Very thin layers of cloud appearing around me now 

[Harry]

9 minutes ago, matt111 said:

UKV still interested in something near the east coast. 

50 or so miles SSW would be grand!

[Eastern Scotland WX]

This is what i went for tonight. 

[Harry]

This is my favourite (but has to be said, very much outlier) model for the early hours. AROME in the near term can be very reliable...

[oliverek7]

Ominous but beautiful cloudscapes looking out northwest towards London 

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

21 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

This is what i went for tonight. 

I hope so ! What time would this for cast be for?  ^-^ also if I get two busts in 24 hours I'm going to scream 

[Harry]

3 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

I hope so ! What time would this for cast be for?  ^-^ also if I get two busts in 24 hours I'm going to scream 

Tonight most definitely wouldn’t qualify as a bust - there’s been no strong signal at all for anything but a low risk to be honest - some develop nothing, some develop storms off the coast of east anglia, some over eastern EA while one develops storms around SE London Ne’wards. There is however model agreement that any developments will be between 01:00 and 02:00.