Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

9 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Just to put this into Perspective the Worlds Biggest Tornado formed on 31st May 2013 (El Reno) which we chased and the radar grab is posted below

The rings on my radar are set to 5 miles each, meaning this storm which was above average in terms of size (Obviously) was about 40 miles x 20 miles

my fav type of clouds are the the shelf clouds  wish we got them here , i prefer cloud structure than the actual storm, that tornado killed four storm chasers ;-;

Edited May 19, 2020 by Mitch perrott

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Harry said:

At this range I tend to rely heavily on the WRF NMM 5km model (06z MUCAPE and convective precipitation charts attached). In previous years I’ve found it really quite good. At less than 24 hours out I then focus more on Euro4 and ARPÈGE which again in recent times have been pretty hot in the real short term. 

Whats with the high cape around west midlands but then no cape around the east midlands and then back to high cape across east anglia?would that be cloud cover causing it?this is going down to the wire!!

[staplehurst]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Whats with the high cape around west midlands but then no cape around the east midlands and then back to high cape across east anglia?would that be cloud cover causing it?this is going down to the wire!!

Rain-cooled air most likely

[shaky]

9 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Rain-cooled air most likely

I think we really need to see the skies being as clear as possible thursday morning!!!comparing the last 4 gfs runs they are all very similar but one thing that has changed is the cape amounts have reduced thanks to what looks like being a band of boring heavy rain now across central and eastern england before pushing into the north sea later on thursday!!

[chionomaniac]

Does anyone know where I can find a forecast skew-t for Thursday 12z and 15z for around the Cambridgeshire area for this Thursday? Thanks

[ChannelThunder]

Supercells the size of the UK?  The hail core alone would be the size of Scotland!

[Thunder and Lightning]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Does anyone know where I can find a forecast skew-t for Thursday 12z and 15z for around the Cambridgeshire area for this Thursday? Thanks

If you have Netweather Extra then you can use that. I know WxCharts do them but they are not very good. The best place is probably Pivotal Weather, which is the link below. All the forecast Skew-T's are on the GFS though, just notifying you.

Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather

WWW.PIVOTALWEATHER.COM

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View GFS weather model forecast map image for Composite Reflectivity in United Kingdom on pivotalweather.com.

Enjoy! This is also easy to select your location as you just click where you like by using the cross. Hope this was helpful! 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

6 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Does anyone know where I can find a forecast skew-t for Thursday 12z and 15z for around the Cambridgeshire area for this Thursday? Thanks

 

RASP UK Forecast (Stratus)

RASP.STRATUS.ORG.UK

 

Edited May 19, 2020 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[alexisj9]

28 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

my fav type of clouds are the the shelf clouds  wish we got them here , i prefer cloud structure than the actual storm, that tornado killed four storm chasers ;-;

We had a fantastic one in front of an mcs that came from France a few years back, and the wind with it was mental. 

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

We had a fantastic one in front of an mcs that came from France a few years back, and the wind with it was mental. 

im jealous, never have seen one ;-;

 

[chionomaniac]

Thanks. I have just found some on weather online for Cambridge and Norwich 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

50 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Haha this is complete stupidity

You CANNOT Have a Supercell the size of the Uk, your talking 550 miles by 250 miles across

It is impossible

The UK is the wrong shape for this kind of experimental weather. Iceland, maybe...

[Zak M]

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

The UK is the wrong shape for this kind of experimental weather. Iceland, maybe...

Supercell snowstorm 

[ChannelThunder]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

We had a fantastic one in front of an mcs that came from France a few years back, and the wind with it was mental. 

I was lucky enough to be living in Canterbury at the time that came in. It was a great evening. We'd been at Margate for the hot sunshine that day, and you could see the top of the storm from there while it was still over France it was that big.

By the time we were home, that shelf cloud with its incredible winds came in. Not a sight you expect to see in the UK and an experience akin to many I had in the States last year while chasing! The only disappointing thing was that the storm split and the best lightning went toward both west Kent and the Dover Strait.

[chionomaniac]

8 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

RASP UK Forecast (Stratus)

RASP.STRATUS.ORG.UK

 

Besides the lack of directional shear the 12z sounding isn’t too bad storms but wouldn’t expect a supercell on that.  As ever more info needed

[chionomaniac]

12 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

If you have Netweather Extra then you can use that. I know WxCharts do them but they are not very good. The best place is probably Pivotal Weather, which is the link below. All the forecast Skew-T's are on the GFS though, just notifying you.

Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather

WWW.PIVOTALWEATHER.COM

---

View GFS weather model forecast map image for Composite Reflectivity in United Kingdom on pivotalweather.com.

Enjoy! This is also easy to select your location as you just click where you like by using the cross. Hope this was helpful! 

Thanks for this link. I use it all the time for the USA and didn’t realise that they had exactly the same for the UK. Brilliant and just what I wanted

[Thunder and Lightning]

I'm glad I could help!

[Zak M]

The last time I witnessed a MCS was last year in October when I was on holiday in Alcudia, in the Balearic Islands. Big thunderstorms started forming in N Algeria during the late afternoon and drifted their way northwards. Then, at around 10pm, it went bonkers! There was constant strobe lightning, about a strike every few seconds. 

In fact you can see the development of it on Sat24:

 

[Frosty hollows]

32 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

The UK is the wrong shape for this kind of experimental weather. Iceland, maybe...

It's a no from me. I'm storm parched( best part of 2 yrs now), and would love to see a storm,  but really don't fancy being destroyed by one!

At the moment we're well out of the running here in CS England, but as ever it will always come down to now casting....something in itself to look forward to on the day!

[Frosty hollows]

24 minutes ago, Zak M said:

The last time I witnessed a MCS was last year in October when I was on holiday in Alcudia, in the Balearic Islands. Big thunderstorms started forming in N Algeria during the late afternoon and drifted their way northwards. Then, at around 10pm, it went bonkers! There was constant strobe lightning, about a strike every few seconds. 

In fact you can see the development of it on Sat24:

 

Wow!

[matt111]

53 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Supercell snowstorm 

Now that’s could bring some interesting combinations. Snow tornado? Snow and large hail together? Blizzards would be possible too I guess in any convective winds. 

[Mesoscale]

7 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Now that’s could bring some interesting combinations. Snow tornado? Snow and large hail together? Blizzards would be possible too I guess in any convective winds. 

Bit off topic but there are videos of snow tornadoes which are formed by Lake Effect Snow in the Northeast US on youtube. 

Back to topic the build up over the couple of days before a thunderstorm day is always exciting. 

[Eagle Eye]

any chance of it moving east

[IMP757]

Just now, Xanderp009 said:

any chance of it moving east

There's a chance of it doing anything at this stage.

[Thunder and Lightning]

I do hope that the situation trends back to what it was looking like a few days ago with less elevated potential and more of a robust surface based storm risk with an attendant severe threat. Even though any storm would be great, I would prefer a mid/late afternoon event with a greater threat especially as we were seeing that potential beforehand. Still 2 days to go though! So I shouldn't complain until we are waiting for the next round of storms after this (hopefully) one.

 

Edited May 19, 2020 by Thunder and Lightning