Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[Eye to the sky]

8 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yep,Meto going for that too

BBC's take on it

CW's forecast should be out soon.

Not had a decent storm here since June 28th 2012.Dont get storms like we used to in 80's- 90's.So no chance here. Not sure why it has changed so much.

[Eagle Eye]

Yesterday I said a small chance south as the temperature difference is minimill and the further you go north the more of a chance you get with it peaking at Sheffield that forecast for storms was for today. 

[Thunder and Lightning]

My thermometer is already at 16.2c and it's definitely not in the sun. Give or take a few degrees for accuracy and I am already a few degrees higher than the MetO's forecast! Hopefully this will increase CAPE and allow more areas to catch some storms. 

[Thunder and Lightning]

Interesting to see 30-40kts of bulk shear moving northwards across the SE today. Maybe it could help organise the storms a little?

[James1979]

Estofex don't even have a 15% chance for anywhere in the UK today and they are nearly always spot on.

[AMeltedFlake]

5 minutes ago, James1979 said:

Estofex don't even have a 15% chance for anywhere in the UK today and they are nearly always spot on.

I was just about to say that...CW have a slight out...strange

[Thunder and Lightning]

0z sounding are looking okay. The dry air from 700mb will steepen lapse rates i'm guessing. There is quite a lot of speed shear as well, 10kts at the surface increasing to 15 and 20kts, increasing to 40 by 400mb and 55 just above that. The directional shear is not so good but maybe the storms today will last longer then usual if the updrafts can tilt a bit? Also the moisture will probably be distributed more evenly through mixing, and most models are showing up to 15c dew points across England which I know is great for storms! Hopefully today will be good! Please forgive me if I'm using things wrong .

Edited May 8, 2020 by Thunder and Lightning

[James1979]

17 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

I was just about to say that...CW have a slight out...strange

That is odd as there's normally at least some cross over in storm agreement. Hopefully Estofex are wrong today! 

[oliverek7]

All the action keeps happening too far north or too far south of London this year so far, looks the same case today and tomorrow! Haven’t heard any thunder yet despite being sandwiched in storms at the end of April just my luck.  

Edited May 8, 2020 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[Allseasons-Si]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 08 May 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 09 May 2020

ISSUED 06:20 UTC Fri 08 May 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

In a broad sense, an upper ridge will cover much of the British Isles during Friday, albeit heights slowly falling through the day. Weak impulses will crest the northern flank of the ridge, and may in-part aid in convective development. However, aside from Friday morning where some elevated convection may be occurring over Devon and Cornwall (with an attendant risk of lightning, albeit fairly low), the more significant factor for forced ascent will be a combination of diurnal heating, low-level wind convergence and orographic forcing.

Isolated to well-scattered showers are possible, and CAM guidance suggests surface-based convection may begin to develop from around 1pm BST onwards, although both 00z soundings and forecast profiles are quite warm aloft which may restrict the potential depth of convection (generally below 500mb / ELTs -17C), despite 300-700 J/kg CAPE. 00z Nottingham and Albermarle soundings suggest convection may be able to grow slightly taller than offered on the Camborne ascent, albeit very dry aloft, while Hertstmonceux offers only limited shallow convection and very unlikely to yield deep convection.

 

Eventually, towards late afternoon/early evening, a few showers may gain sufficient height to produce a few isolated lightning strikes. It is difficult to pin-point specifically where this may occur, given a fairly broad risk area. Perhaps the risk is somewhat higher over east Wales / west Midlands, and East Anglia, where a low-end SLGT (30%) has been introduced - but confidence on much in the way of lightning is fairly low. Showers will gradually decay through the evening and night as diurnal heating subsides.

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

[Eagle Eye]

The next 4 days looks like a slowly deteriorating storm chance although Tuesday is looking like a good temperature change, haven't looked to see if there's any rain around then Though

Edited May 8, 2020 by Xanderp009

[Eagle Eye]

It's not looking good for me so I'm looking at the Lake in Venezuela Forecast. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, Xanderp009 said:

It's not looking good for me so I'm looking at the Lake in Venezuela Forecast. 

Maracaibo?

[Eagle Eye]

yes

[James1979]

Feels hot and humid out there now, definitely feels like it has the ingredients today, a little overcast however. Some cumulus bubbling up now, somewhere is going to get something! 

[Eagle Eye]

Where I thought thunderstorms would be today from Yesterday. 

[James1979]

Some big clouds bubbling up quickly to my south.... Cambridge bound I reckon!

[Zak M]

1 minute ago, James1979 said:

Some big clouds bubbling up quickly to my south.... Cambridge bound I reckon!

Some nice convective clouds here too

[James1979]

6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Some nice convective clouds here too

Some nice skyscapes out there today 

[Ben Sainsbury]

1 hour ago, Xanderp009 said:

Where I thought thunderstorms would be today from Yesterday. 

You can't judge where today's storms will be based on yesterday! Aha unfortunately it doesn't work like that.

Edited May 8, 2020 by Ben Sainsbury

[Eagle Eye]

that was my yesterday's forecast for Today

[viking_smb]

Just now, Xanderp009 said:

that was my yesterday's forecast for Today

as ben says it doesnt work like that, as conditions can and do change from one day to another. 

[Eagle Eye]

that was what I forecasted for today like connective weather but a day Before

[Thunder and Lightning]

He just meant it like day 2 forecast. He was forecasting for tomorrow knowing things were likely to change and there was uncertainty. 

Edited May 8, 2020 by Thunder and Lightning

[Zak M]

Expecting radar returns to my south soon, getting very dark over there, loads of cumulus just piling into one!