Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[Josh Rubio]

Showers developing around the South Wales - West Midlands border.

[Sparkiee storm]

Some nice towers going up here in Walsall now.

[Paul Sherman]

1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Hopefully so. However, temps of 25-30c are more than adequate to trigger severe events. In fact, you don’t necessarily need excessive CAPE and colourful charts for a decent outbreak. Dew points, a trigger mechanism and wind shear play a big part.

You can have all the CAPE and LI in the world, but if the cap is too strong, or there is insufficient trigger mechanisms, the whole thing can end up being a bust. Oklahoma May 20th last year had a rare high risk warning, but it did not live up to expectations, due to a strong cap and a warm nose in the mid levels scuppering lapse rates somewhat. 

I wouldnt say the Strong Cap killed that event, having chased that risk the Dryline fired further to the SW around the Southern Texas Panhandle south of Childress and that Supercell produced 2 Tornadoes, this Supercell crossed the Red River and we crossed North on Highway 6 north of Quanah, this Storm then tracked towards Mangum where it Cycled South West of There and produced that Tornado which had it hit the town square on would have aquired an EF5 Rating due to the 268mph winds that were measured by the DOW (Doppler on Wheels) what happened next was the lifting warm front actually got undercut from North winds making it a South moving Cold Front which supressed convection and kept the northern half of the 45% Hatched High Risk Area untouched, my friend at the SPC (Doug Spheger) did mention the warm nose at 700mb further North though on Norman Midday Soundings. Definately not a Bust though 

[Allseasons-Si]

A little game...

guess where the first sferic will be.

i would say N Nottingham,S Sheffield to Worksop,Gainsborough area.

[Zak M]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

A little game...

guess where the first sferic will be.

i would say N Nottingham,S Sheffield to Worksop,Gainsborough area.

Going for NE Worksop

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Going for NE Worksop

It could be N Wales

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Looking at wrf nmm and fax charts looks like a very localised area of CAPE and instability so quite a low thunder risk as it looked a few days ago, picking an area perhaps somewhere like Brigg down towards Market Rasen but a low risk.

[Zak M]

Some nice cumulus here atm

[Zak M]

9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It could be N Wales

It must have popped up quite quickly as I didn’t see it there 15 minutes ago!

[Allseasons-Si]

A nice tower building to my SW.

[Zak M]

N Wales cell now electrified

[Allseasons-Si]

Sferic north Wales.

@Zak M,we where both wrong

Edited April 26, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Hathers]

We have lift off. Lightning detected just north of Oswestry. 
I wonder if we’ll see some surprises today .

[ChezWeather]

Heavy shower moving over here, some massive raindrops 

[toggerob]

Just come back from having the hour's exercise of the day around the fields and there's the usual distinctive 'blue haze' in the valleys here that is often precedent before thunderstorms, noticing the humidity is on the increase too with the water-air kind of feeling just as I was noticing the CU beginning to bubble up with some dark bases as the mid-level murk was clearing. Fingers crossed.

[Arnie Pie]

Begining to build and darken up to my West now....Wolverhampton way

 

 

[toggerob]

2 sferics now showing at the Owestry cell.

[Rush2019]

54 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Just come back from having the hour's exercise of the day around the fields and there's the usual distinctive 'blue haze' in the valleys here that is often precedent before thunderstorms, noticing the humidity is on the increase too with the water-air kind of feeling just as I was noticing the CU beginning to bubble up with some dark bases as the mid-level murk was clearing. Fingers crossed.

Just got back from a walk with daughter, Prestbury, Alderley Edge.  Caught a brief shower which dried within minutes, since then we could feel the humidity and a slight heavy oppressive feel too.  The air certainly feels heavy enough,  like you, it's fingers crossed.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

I wouldnt say the Strong Cap killed that event, having chased that risk the Dryline fired further to the SW around the Southern Texas Panhandle south of Childress and that Supercell produced 2 Tornadoes, this Supercell crossed the Red River and we crossed North on Highway 6 north of Quanah, this Storm then tracked towards Mangum where it Cycled South West of There and produced that Tornado which had it hit the town square on would have aquired an EF5 Rating due to the 268mph winds that were measured by the DOW (Doppler on Wheels) what happened next was the lifting warm front actually got undercut from North winds making it a South moving Cold Front which supressed convection and kept the northern half of the 45% Hatched High Risk Area untouched, my friend at the SPC (Doug Spheger) did mention the warm nose at 700mb further North though on Norman Midday Soundings. Definately not a Bust though 

I stand corrected. I’m not jealous much Paul! That place called tornado alley is on my top priority list over the coming years! 

I bet seeing one of our wonderful Spanish plumes is simply just child’s play compared to what you have witnessed out there! 

[Eagle Eye]

Ask me for forecast for me because I'm bored. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Line of cells to the north of Brigg, some had white cores. Likely the front starting to interact with that localised instability. Might actually be that trough 

Edited April 26, 2020 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[Paul Sherman]

47 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I stand corrected. I’m not jealous much Paul! That place called tornado alley is on my top priority list over the coming years! 

I bet seeing one of our wonderful Spanish plumes is simply just child’s play compared to what you have witnessed out there! 

Yes you will defo have to do it one year, we only get 1 life after all. Since we have been running the tours 16 years ago I have pretty much detroyed nearly 500 people with UK Storms now lololol

But it is what it is - And this year I will get hyped up for our Summer Plume events and you never know if we get get an engaging trough pulling up mid 60's dewpoints and favourable shear you never know that illusive beast the Supercell might make an appearance in the Uk - You of course would be best placed to see it 

[Harry]

5 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yes you will defo have to do it one year, we only get 1 life after all. Since we have been running the tours 16 years ago I have pretty much detroyed nearly 500 people with UK Storms now lololol

But it is what it is - And this year I will get hyped up for our Summer Plume events and you never know if we get get an engaging trough pulling up mid 60's dewpoints and favourable shear you never know that illusive beast the Supercell might make an appearance in the Uk - You of course would be best placed to see it 

It’s almost 10 years to the day (in fact I think it might very well be the day) I did my first and only (to date) USA storm chase with Paul and the Netweather team. It included a High risk chase day through S/C Arkansas (Pine Bluff/Stuttgart), ending in Memphis. It’s more than fair to say US storms piddle our storms into insignificance, but that said I love our Spanish Plumes. Since that holiday, I’ve seen some incredible storms here, with incredibly frequent lightning and impressive structures. There’s something, for me at least, just as exciting in feeling the humidity building, the AcCas appearing and waiting for the first flashes of lightning on the southern skyline that we get with Spanish Plumes. 

As we get into a more traditional slack low dominating pattern in the coming days, I’m hoping we will start to get some traditional April/May thundery showers breaking out, initially on Tuesday but at other times perhaps during the week. 
 

In terms of our first proper plume, a rule of thumb for me is not to expect much until mid-May onwards!

[Ryukai]

Nice little rain shower going on here, I have the windows fully open and am thoroughly enjoying the peace and quiet, the gentle breeze and the earthy scent of petrichor, pity there's no lightning to go with it

[Eagle Eye]

Cirrus build up Here..... 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 26, 2020 by Xanderp009