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Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)

To add from Mapantz here is the latest MU CAPE charts for now and midnight tonight for the UK.

The developing showers/storms ahead of the small MCS in SE Devon are within a region of decent CAPE values atm, so there is a chance of them becoming weakly electrified. These CAPE values diminish significantly by midnight particularly from 10pm onwards.

122965891_MUCape.thumb.png.01abb0da9185568ec56804506c5adf2c.png238763107_MUCape12.thumb.png.bc10157c532aa8909d9f0ecc2d99cc98.png

New EURO4 out too but not even worth looking at since it's way out already, but does send quite a potent MCS feature moving into Kent later so you never know

However UKV is almost spot on, though everything is a touch west and south of the latest run.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Guest

Posted
Posted

You can see the bifurcating flow, the cells in Devon are moving just a smidgen west of north while everything further south in more NNE, so as they north they should straighten into a more northerly movement.

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Fitzwis Enthusiast

Fitzwis

Posted
  • Location: Jersey, Channel Islands
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Jersey, Channel Islands
Posted (edited)

Almost a constant rumbling of thunder here in Jersey with frequent lightning together with moderate to heavy rainfall 

Edited by Fitzwis
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Jamie M Accomplished

Jamie M

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
Posted

Not sure if that storm from the Channel will veer just to the East of me in Herne Bay. I’ll let you know the conditions if I get hit by it!

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

To add from Mapantz here is the latest MU CAPE charts for now and midnight tonight for the UK.

The developing showers/storms ahead of the small MCS in SE Devon are within a region of decent CAPE values atm, so there is a chance of them becoming weakly electrified. These CAPE values diminish significantly by midnight particularly from 10pm onwards.

122965891_MUCape.thumb.png.01abb0da9185568ec56804506c5adf2c.png238763107_MUCape12.thumb.png.bc10157c532aa8909d9f0ecc2d99cc98.png

New EURO4 out too but not even worth looking at since it's way out already, but does quite a potent MCS feature moving into Kent later so you never know

UKV almost spot on too however, though everything is a touch west and south of the latest run.

The showers developing across S Devon at the moment ahead of the MCS/potential supercell are becoming quite intense now. The approaching system providing the forcing needed to develop these small, localised showers

52885597_Screenshot2020-04-17at18_52_55.thumb.png.df33f61ef4923261f0c20cd67cdf0cf8.png

Edited by Met4Cast
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LightningLover Accomplished

LightningLover

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
Posted

Oooo I just heard A lovely short elevated rumble... Nothing beats the reverberating boom of distant elevated thunder

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, LightningLover said:

Oooo I just heard A lovely short elevated rumble... Nothing beats the reverberating boom of distant elevated thunder

Must have been a +CG - the nearest storm is quite far away!

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Dami Maestro

Dami

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
Posted

*sigh* 

Got some rain if that helps.

 

 

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Hodgheg Community Regular

Hodgheg

Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The showers developing across S Devon at the moment ahead of the MCS/potential supercell are becoming quite intense now. The approaching system providing the forcing needed to develop these small, localised showers

52885597_Screenshot2020-04-17at18_52_55.thumb.png.df33f61ef4923261f0c20cd67cdf0cf8.png

Certainly looks like an MCS but I don't see any indications of an embedded supercell. Maybe the tail end over the islands? 

Edited by John90
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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)

Judging by the cloud heights on Sat24, radar & lightning tracks I think there is a good chance that the areas of storms around Jersey will merge to form a larger (but relatively weak MCS) moving between the Portsmouth to Brighton area between 10pm and midnight.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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matt111 Maestro

matt111

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Posted

Interesting sky here too 

6F513B47-CD10-45FB-8B6D-3574CFCB0AB6.jpeg

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

Surprised at that storm in the Channel Islands - formed very quickly with very frequent lightning and only 13-14c temps there.

Edited by Zak M
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tomp456 Seasoned

tomp456

Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Judging by the cloud heights on Sat24, radar & lightning tracks I think there is a good chance that the areas of storms around Jersey will merge to form a larger (but relatively weak MCS) moving between the Portsmouth to Brighton area between 10pm and midnight.

If you are correct, I will buy you a (virtual) pint 

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Hodgheg Community Regular

Hodgheg

Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
Posted

The showers have cleared South London now. I'm encouraged by some towering cumulus moving up from the south. 

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MR CB Apprentice

MR CB

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne
  • Location: Eastbourne
Posted

Hmmm nothing electrical is getting into the Channel at the moment - all quite close to the French side (landmass)  I know these are elevated type storms...

 

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

My prediction for tonight, cells to merge in the red then move towards the UK. Some models show air destabilising later over the UK with the UK producing it’s own thunderstorms but looking at radar at the moment, I believe the storms will develop over the channel then head our way 

31B4F046-9EE1-4B93-AFE8-C75EAFFBEB49.jpeg

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Stabilo19 Experienced

Stabilo19

Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, dry & sunny
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
Posted
7 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Surprised at that storm in the Channel Islands - formed very quickly with very frequent lightning and only 13-14c temps there.

It looks quite potent - especially for April!

jers1.thumb.png.ce789a6140aa0e9e50f19ddba5efc90e.png

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LightningLover Accomplished

LightningLover

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
Posted
13 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Must have been a +CG - the nearest storm is quite far away!

Elevated Thunderstorms can be heard from really far away here... the 27-28th May 2017 MCS event was a great example of that

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Stabilo19 Experienced

Stabilo19

Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, dry & sunny
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
Posted (edited)

Lightning activity fizzling out in the storm near Kent. 

Hope that's not a sign of things to come!

Edited by Stabilo19
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