Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[OddSpot]

If only 

 

Got a bit bored lol. Even the spiders web has gone from last night across the 'web'cam

Mods delete if you must

Edited April 17, 2020 by OddSpot

[Zak M]

3 minutes ago, OddSpot said:

If only 

 

Got a bit bored lol. Even the spiders web has gone from last night across the 'web'cam

Mods delete if you must

Do I see a shark?? 

[Mapantz]

Emphasis is more to the SE, IoW -> Sussex's / Kent coastal regions for electrical activity - ECM certainly favours it. Brighton the best place?!

[viking_smb]

business as usual then, for some reason storms seem to happen more towards kent way than the south west, not that i'm complaining as I would rather not have storms

Edited April 17, 2020 by viking_smb

[Allseasons-Si]

Developments on the north coast of France now,also watch around Le Mans area.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Looking at the wrf nmm I would say a chance for Eastbourne and slightly further north later tonight looks like chance of elevated cells moving in. Possibly associated with a trough. Don’t think this will be far off  also an unintentional rhyme there

Edited April 17, 2020 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[Nick F]

The stretch of Normandy coastal area between Cherbourg and Le Harve always seems a hot spot for storms to fire ... area to watch.

06z EC spŕeads some of the pool of CAPE spreading north out of France this evening/ tonight across Kent and Sussex as well as southern  coastal areas

 

[Mapantz]

Forget the BBC's app/website forecasts. If there's a tiny 0.1% of a thundery shower, they will show hours and hours of lightning symbols.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

7 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Looking at the wrf nmm I would say a chance for Eastbourne and slightly further north later tonight looks like chance of elevated cells moving in. Possibly associated with a trough. Don’t think this will be far off  also an unintentional rhyme there

Still think people are concentrating too Far East, the track seems to be pretty much straight up.

More Paula Abdul than Pet Shop Boys or Benny Blanco

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Still think people are concentrating too Far East, the track seems to be pretty much straight up.

More Paula Abdul than Pet Shop Boys or Benny Blanco

But the greatest forcing and instability now looks further east. 

Ugh, also what a gross afternoon, was expecting a decent clearing, just stuck under lots of the clag & drizzle and temps not even into the teens. 

[Josh Rubio]

So what I’ve read so far from the comments, has the forecast track of the storm has changed from a northwesterly to a northerly direction and will initially be placed further east? 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Forget the BBC's app/website forecasts. If there's a tiny 0.1% of a thundery shower, they will show hours and hours of lightning symbols.

I was just highlighting that Eastbourne and areas a bit to the north is my virtual target zone I rarely follow bbc / met office forecasts it was purely out of interest but the agreement is there so better than nothing.

[Guest]

Looks like the first really shower is just getting going over the Cherbourg Peninsular (Again) 

[Stormyking]

Afternoon all!

I was gonna post a bit earlier but I got a bit distracted. It has been another pretty fun Morning and early Afternoon, a lot of rain has fallen which had been heavy-very heavy for most of the time along with the odd torrential bursts. There were reports of Thunder early this Morning about 7amish but I slept through it. However the very back edge of the rain band had a nice little storm develop just to our SE. I was keeping an eye on it as had a feeling it was going to get a bit closer and produce some more. I was hearing thunder more frequently and getting a little louder. Managed to get close enough to hear some proper rumbles and seen some CC's but it stayed out just to our East. Was fun to see and hear though, took my opportunity for my daily walk to grab a couple of snaps. 

There were some interesting scenes as there was also a bank of low cloud looking over Ventnor and Shanklin downs, the bit of lighter sky between the storm and the bank of low cloud looked pretty cool . Unfortunately I had no proper camera on me this time so had to get my phone out. 

[Eagle Eye]

Anyone Noticed a lot of cells popping up around France.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

24 minutes ago, Alderc said:

But the greatest forcing and instability now looks further east. 

Ugh, also what a gross afternoon, was expecting a decent clearing, just stuck under lots of the clag & drizzle and temps not even into the teens. 

A lot of it will be elevated so it’s not too much of a worry, some heat would be nice though

[tomp456]

Well....I am in the prime position on the West Sussex coast, for the heavy rain later.

Edited April 17, 2020 by tomp456

[ChannelThunder]

10 minutes ago, Stormyking said:

Afternoon all!

I was gonna post a bit earlier but I got a bit distracted. It has been another pretty fun Morning and early Afternoon, a lot of rain has fallen which had been heavy-very heavy for most of the time along with the odd torrential bursts. There were reports of Thunder early this Morning about 7amish but I slept through it. However the very back edge of the rain band had a nice little storm develop just to our SE. I was keeping an eye on it as had a feeling it was going to get a bit closer and produce some more. I was hearing thunder more frequently and getting a little louder. Managed to get close enough to hear some proper rumbles and seen some CC's but it stayed out just to our East. Was fun to see and hear though, took my opportunity for my daily walk to grab a couple of snaps. 

There were some interesting scenes as there was also a bank of low cloud looking over Ventnor and Shanklin downs, the bit of lighter sky between the storm and the bank of low cloud looked pretty cool . Unfortunately I had no proper camera on me this time so had to get my phone out. 

Great skies! I'm from the Island, so nice to see those familiar scenes.

[Hodgheg]

A couple of strikes just south of Brighton now. 

[ChannelThunder]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

Developments on the north coast of France now,also watch around Le Mans area.

Good shout with Le Mans. The area between there and Rennes is looking primed on satellite and is producing sferics already

[StormLoser]

49 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Forget the BBC's app/website forecasts. If there's a tiny 0.1% of a thundery shower, they will show hours and hours of lightning symbols.

Preceded, of course, by a Yellow Weather warning  which will stay in place despite the fact the sun is out and the police are chucking water over BBQs...   

[StormLoser]

At last, we have rain. Beating pretty much a 4 week drought. Naturally it came down in force just as I went to the corner shop. At least the tumbleweed is being watered.  

I'm hearing a lot of positive noise about this evening. I have my fingers crossed I might actually see some action!

[Justin1705]

Here we are again at this time of the year where we are arguing where the storms will be and whose going to get one. When in reality it’s usually a blow out an no action at all. 

However today alongside the heat we have had for the past 14 days with no amounts of rain in southern England, we are due something. Tonight is very variable in models some suggesting the famous Kent clipper scenario. Some keeping it confined to Southern coasts and no inland action, some tracking early through central southern England. I’ve attached A few models including the WRF NNM2km model, which shows a large area of thundery rain, potentially A MCS scenario tracking through central southern England and into the midlands.

 

The second model, WRF- ARW, Ilsupports more of a SE confined risk for any storm structures starting with a late evening Kent clipper situation (well at least it will make landfall )tracking N/NW through Essex and dying as it moves into less unstable air (typically for me the highest likely scenario for tonight)

My third model I’m analysing and using to forecast myself for what may happen tonight is the biased option, a Calais light show, with storms veering E/NE towards Holland and into the North Sea ( a situation that happens quite a lot may I say, especially in weaker set ups) which means could also be an outcome.

For now I’m going to sit back, spark the barbecue and leave the models and stop watching the precipitation radar ever 10 mins until around 8/9pm and see where we are then, as always with these setups it’s a  
nowcast situation and all the models in the world cannot predict the exact track and exact behaviours of any thunderstorms or cluster cells that do form.

 

So fingers crossed we have a light show tonight, not just for Southerners but for people on the midlands and wales aswell, be something different to look at. 

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Justin1705

[Eagle Eye]

I'm Seeing no action....

[Zak M]

Yep, NW France kicking off now...