Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[Nick F]

Good morning, band of heavy convective rain moving north across the south this morning could bring isolated thunder, but perhaps a better threat of thunder for central S and SE England this evening and overnight, as shortwave and jet streak moving up from the SW arrives creating more forcing aloft. More in my Thunderstorm Outlook here: 

Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv

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[Dreckly]

Incoming

[Guest]

Seems like there is slightly more biased in this morning models to favour the eastern channel for a light show tonight so we are well on our way for the first Kent Clipper of the season......

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

12 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Seems like there is slightly more biased in this morning models to favour the eastern channel for a light show tonight so we are well on our way for the first Kent Clipper of the season......

I’ve got to disagree with you there I’ve seen no forecasts suggesting that. Kent may be in on the action but the south coast from Devon to Kent will be subject to showers passing across the channel, these may be thundery as there will be storms breaking out across France and making their way northwards towards our shores. It’s similar to yesterday, but the showers will possibly get further inland and be heavier

Edited April 17, 2020 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

Anyone think far SE will get any action? , I'm currently in ramsgate

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It’s heading north, like what the forecasts said

pretty active little cell, too

I was talking about tonight, the current cell in the channel is not related to that activity, tonights fun will emanate from the clear slot currently over north western France. Tonight there is something of a bifurcating flow tonight, it seems likely the eastern channel might have more of a NE flow, while the western channel has slightly less potent convection and a slightly more NW flow. Could be a situation where the cells in the east are dragged further east although will leave that to the various experts to talk about. 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Guest

[Paul Sherman]

Agree with Flash Bang. The nature of the Bifurcated steering flow will see bands of storms moving north with the western end moving NNW and the Eastern Portion moving NNE. Meaning no area should really be favoured from West Devon to Kent. Its a duckshoot really

[Paul Sherman]

Lol @ Chris posted the same time

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I was talking about tonight, the current cell in the channel is not related to that activity, tonights fun will emanate from the clear slot currently over north western France. Tonight there is something of a bifurcating flow tonight, it seems likely the eastern channel might have more of a NE flow, while the western channel has slightly less potent convection and a slightly more NW flow. Could be a situation where the cells in the east are dragged further east although will leave that to the various experts to talk about. 

Sorry I edited the post to be more detailed . Cheers for the explanation  I still don’t see it, but the proof will be in what happens later today. Exciting that we may have our first actual storm of the year down in these parts

[jtay]

Followed us back on our morning walk at 8:30ish, before it started raining.

Edited April 17, 2020 by jtay

[Mapantz]

I certainly don't expect a Kent Clipper scenario this evening. All to play for!

Some heavy convective rainfall here today. Feels rather strange after all of this sunny and dry weather.

[tomp456]

Not much to report on the sussex coast....about five minutes of convective rain, enough to dampen the pavements. Drying off now! Hoping for a bit of storm action later.

[StormLoser]

Well, I perked up with the forecasts for the South East. And then I read "bifurcation".

OK, I know my history. That bifurcation will happen directly south of Reigate. I'll see the western mass of storms head...west. And the eastern mass become a Kent clipper.  

Lol. Anyway, here's for later, folks!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

23 minutes ago, StormLoser said:

Well, I perked up with the forecasts for the South East. And then I read "bifurcation".

OK, I know my history. That bifurcation will happen directly south of Reigate. I'll see the western mass of storms head...west. And the eastern mass become a Kent clipper.  

Lol. Anyway, here's for later, folks!

I would say you’re in the ideal spot. Sit back and see what happens, it might not get that far inland but you’ll probably still see some flashes in the cloud tops from the storms along the coast.

Remember - it’s only April - it’s probably just the worldwide chaos since February that’s making you think it’s already July

[Nick F]

UKV quite bullish with pushing some strong cells north over the English Channel across central S and SE England this evening and overnight:

[ChannelThunder]

33 minutes ago, Nick F said:

UKV quite bullish with pushing some strong cells north over the English Channel across central S and SE England this evening and overnight:

I would very happily settle for that outcome!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

29 minutes ago, lancem said:

I would very happily settle for that outcome!

I’ll be standing in a local field this evening looking to my south and *hopefully* enjoying the show if anyone would like to come along to socially antagonise me

Edit: I will be doing squats, forward rolls, and practicing my burps

Edited April 17, 2020 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Liam Ellis]

Some interesting/unstable looking clouds here in north west Walea after a sunny start. Feeling mild and slightly humid too. Doubt we'll get any storms though! 

[Met4Cast]

Instabillity appears to drop quite markedly as you move northwards away from the S Coast so I suspect any storms that do make it this far, despite being more elevated will tend to fizzle out quite quickly across land. 

However, the caveat to the above is the exact placement of the upper trough since instability is tied to that, a little further north than forecast will allow storms to last a little longer. Best spots tonight will probably be the S Coast shifting to SE England during the early hours of the morning. One or two more intense thunderstorms could develop for a few sweet spots but goodluck guessing where those will be. 

[Zak M]

Lightning from the past 24hrs

[matt111]

A few sparks in the channel all of a sudden 

[Met4Cast]

Conditions are primed across N France for storm development later today, good vertical profile & shear. Steering winds should then begin to push the storms northwards towards the UK!

One or two thunderstorms breaking out on the back edge of the current rainband shows the instability that exists across the channel.

 

[Mapantz]

Latest UKV looks uninspiring for this evening.

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Latest UKV looks uninspiring for this evening.

Looks pretty much as expected to me, a rash of showers moving N with the focus mostly on CS/SE Eng later in the evening/overnight. 

I find the UKV often seems to overdo convective potential in the day leading up to the event only to massively downgrade the potential on the day itself, it's happened a few times now. It particularly struggles with elevated storms such as what seems likely tonight. 

Just about anywhere could catch one of those sharp showers though.

[Zak M]

Sferic now off the coast of NW France