Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[Benny123]

Can anyone recommend a good place to find UK Theta-e, Streamlines (convergence and divergence) maps? Lightning Wizard convective maps are really good, but a higher resolution for the UK would be really useful! Thanks!  

Edited April 16, 2020 by Benny123

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

7 minutes ago, Benny123 said:

Can anyone recommend a good place to find UK Theta-e, Streamlines (convergence and divergence) maps? Lightning Wizard convective maps are really good, but a higher resolution for the UK would be really useful! Thanks!  

Wrf nmm on meteociel has theta-e charts the 2km is highest resolution and you can use the wind charts to look for convergence zones also you can zoom into different areas of uk.

looks like some elevated rainfall into the sw overnight tonight, there is some cape over Wales today but lack of a trigger. Both SBCAPE and MUCAPE across wales tomorrow and a front could see some storms will see what the runs later show and might pick a virtual target zone

[Wilxy]

15 minutes ago, Benny123 said:

Can anyone recommend a good place to find UK Theta-e, Streamlines (convergence and divergence) maps? Lightning Wizard convective maps are really good, but a higher resolution for the UK would be really useful! Thanks!  

Meteociel is very good you have quite a range of high resolution models that will show both convergence zones and theta-e and theta-w and much more!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

16 minutes ago, Benny123 said:

Can anyone recommend a good place to find UK Theta-e, Streamlines (convergence and divergence) maps? Lightning Wizard convective maps are really good, but a higher resolution for the UK would be really useful! Thanks!  

Try Ventusky, there’s an app and/or a website

Ventusky - Wind, Rain and Temperature Maps

WWW.VENTUSKY.COM

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Live wind, rain and temperature maps, detailed forecast for your place, data from the best weather forecast models such as GFS, ICON, GEM

It’s pretty amazing

[StormLoser]

Here in Reigate it started out warm, sunny and humid. Now, our dear Met Office says it should be a warm and dry day with some sunshine here.

So I idly look on the Netweather rainfall chart to see a small area of rain is heading right our way.  

Met Office? Hello? Hello? Are you there?  

Hoping tomorrow will bring some interesting weather down here!

[Wilxy]

5 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Try Ventusky, there’s an app and/or a website

Ventusky - Wind, Rain and Temperature Maps

WWW.VENTUSKY.COM

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Live wind, rain and temperature maps, detailed forecast for your place, data from the best weather forecast models such as GFS, ICON, GEM

It’s pretty amazing

Completely forgot about this one thanks!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Elevated instability looking good over Surrey

[oliverek7]

9 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Elevated instability looking good over Surrey

Yep, can see some good stuff here too

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Props to Paul Blight (aka PJB) of UKWW for this forecast map (for tomorrow through into Saturday) and his write-up on things can be found right here:

Convective Outlook - Friday 17th April 2020 (to 09:00 SAT) -

WWW.UKWEATHERWORLD.CO.UK

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Convective Outlook Friday 17th April 2020 Issued Thursday 16th April 2020 Valid - Friday 16th April 2020 12:00 BST to 06:00 Saturday 18th April Ar...

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

And here’s the latest stormcast from Metcheck:

Metcheck.com - Storm Forecast Discussions - Weekly Storm Forecast - From 16 April 2020 - Expert Meteorologists Analyse Storm and Convective Forecasts For Countries Around The World.

WWW.METCHECK.COM

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Metcheck.com - Weekly Storm Forecast - From 16 April 2020 - Expert meteorologists take a weekly look at thunderstorm potential around the world with maps and in depth...

 

[DanN]

3 hours ago, Benny123 said:

Can anyone recommend a good place to find UK Theta-e, Streamlines (convergence and divergence) maps? Lightning Wizard convective maps are really good, but a higher resolution for the UK would be really useful! Thanks!  

Theta-e (850hPa) output from a six member 4km wrf ensemble

sref.io : short range ensemble forecast

SREF.IO

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A short range WRF physics ensemble with six concurrent members producing output for the UK & Ireland

 I'm not plotting convergence and divergence currently but could always add that to the list  

Edited April 16, 2020 by DanN

[Mapantz]

3 hours ago, Benny123 said:

Can anyone recommend a good place to find UK Theta-e, Streamlines (convergence and divergence) maps? Lightning Wizard convective maps are really good, but a higher resolution for the UK would be really useful! Thanks!  

If you're willing to pay a subscription fee, you can access a stack of charts on Netweather. The Met Office' UKV model is available with a resolution of 1.5 KM and it also updates 8 times a day on various Z runs.

[Zak M]

Some sharp showers now forming in Normandy, and at the moment they look like drifting towards the UK.

[oliverek7]

Lively little cell just popping off south of Cherbourg 

[Zak M]

3 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Lively little cell just popping off south of Cherbourg 

Producing quite a lot of lightning too.

[Ben Sainsbury]

2 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

Lively little cell just popping off south of Cherbourg 

Based on the UKV which has so far done well with the distribution and timing of these showers then I would expect them to die out soon.

[Met4Cast]

A broader area of rain will move northwards into S England/Wales during Friday morning associated with a small-scale low moving into Biscay may produce some localised rumbles of thunder, particularly across SW Eng > Central S England. Instability/Shear is somewhat limited during the morning/early afternoon so I don't expect we'll see any intense/fully fledged thunderstorms, more more rumbles mixed in with the broader rain band. 

As we head into the evening moderate levels of instability across N France & a good shear profile will allow thunderstorms to develop here, steering winds should shift these northwards across the channel & into southern counties of England, likely becoming more elevated as they do so, so I suspect we'll see a few of these surviving the dreaded channel crossing.

UKV is most keen for a more organised band of thunderstorms (possible weak MCS?) to move up into SE England in particular later in the evening/midnight>2am ish with thundery showers pushing up elsewhere within the SLIGHT zone. AROME/EURO4 less pronounced on the organisation with showers tending to be more scattered/isolated. 

Fairly high uncertainty at this stage, the airmass across the UK itself is looking rather stable with quite a robust CAP so any surface based storms moving up from France will likely fade quite quickly. Seeing storms tomorrow will depend on them becoming increasingly elevated as they move northwards towards the S UK. 

Low end SLIGHT due to low confidence/lack of model consensus.

[Zak M]

Cell popping off to the E of Caen now

[Benny123]

3 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Wrf nmm on meteociel has theta-e charts the 2km is highest resolution and you can use the wind charts to look for convergence zones also you can zoom into different areas of uk.

looks like some elevated rainfall into the sw overnight tonight, there is some cape over Wales today but lack of a trigger. Both SBCAPE and MUCAPE across wales tomorrow and a front could see some storms will see what the runs later show and might pick a virtual target zone

Cheers for this! Fri-Sat does look better, mostly frontal though so maybe some elevated interest. Just 0.8mm of rainfall for April so far... whatever happened to April showers..!? 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

3 minutes ago, Benny123 said:

Cheers for this! Fri-Sat does look better, mostly frontal though so maybe some elevated interest. Just 0.8mm of rainfall for April so far... whatever happened to April showers..!? 

I know it’s nothing like the usual April transitional weather we get

... but I like it

 

Saturday PM there *could* be some surface-based activity over East Sussex and into Kent.

Would currently make a punt that Sevenoaks might be a good place - if you’re isolating around those parts

[Zak M]

That Cherbourg cell has quite a high cloudtop

> 7km

   

Edit: I can now see a dark red, meaning that the cloudtop is greater than 10km!

Edited April 16, 2020 by Zak M

[Zak M]

Looking dark over there too

Viewsurf - Webcams HD ville - Cherbourg-Octeville - Le port

WWW.VIEWSURF.COM

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Viewsurf, leader européen de la webcam HD touristique live et différée, ville - France - Basse-Normandie - Cherbourg-Octeville - Le port

 

[Mapantz]

If that could become rooted to the boundary layer and tap in to the MLCAPE, the 700mb steering winds suggest it would head towards me/between Dorset & IoW. I suspect it'll fizzle out, though.

[Atmogenic]

Pretty nice strike on that Cherbourg cell

[Zak M]

This certainly didn't strike too far away!