Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[Staffordshire]

A distant rumble of thunder accompanied by some hail here

[Josh Rubio]

So after yesterday’s let down, is it too early to say when we’re next in for another potential? Any weather systems incoming on the horizon?

[Zak M]

36 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

So after yesterday’s let down, is it too early to say when we’re next in for another potential? Any weather systems incoming on the horizon?

Looking quite warm again next week, so hopefully we will see some thundery activity then.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Looking quite warm again next week, so hopefully we will see some thundery activity then.

Having a quick look through the wrf eu looks like France is quite active on 17th April with a chance of the south coast of England possibly. 

[Josh Rubio]

Still too far away to pin point specific locations but hopefully that band of precipitation moving north retains its strength and doesn’t fizzle out.

[Zak M]

Here is some footage of the thunderstorms yesterday night.

 

[Dami]

@Zak M Great Vid and pics. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

6 hours ago, Josh Rubio said:

So after yesterday’s let down, is it too early to say when we’re next in for another potential? Any weather systems incoming on the horizon?

Looking at Metcheck’s storm forecast Thursday evening should be a good chance for the south, central areas I think most likely but this could end up a a clipper.

Friday and into the weekend there’s a risk further west - but still within the southern realm of the nation.

The cause is a projected plume coming up from the continent - first of the year

Expecting it to change and favour some other area when we get down to the details but Thursday could be a good one for our area, and an evening storm is good as it gets for me 

 

[Zak M]

32 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Looking at Metcheck’s storm forecast Thursday evening should be a good chance for the south, central areas I think most likely but this could end up a a clipper.

Friday and into the weekend there’s a risk further west - but still within the southern realm of the nation.

The cause is a projected plume coming up from the continent - first of the year

Expecting it to change and favour some other area when we get down to the details but Thursday could be a good one for our area, and an evening storm is good as it gets for me 

 

Considering how many times this has happened in the past I won't be surprised if it ends up being a Kent clipper 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Considering how many times this has happened in the past I won't be surprised if it ends up being a Kent clipper 

The forecast seems to be for quite a northerly track and storms occurring across a lot of mainland France During the afternoon, so the question is probably whether it includes the SE corner or not, rather than it being exclusively confined to that area.
 

should become clearer over the next few days, but nothing to get too excited about at this stage

Edited April 13, 2020 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Mapantz]

UKV shows dynamic rainfall moving up from France on Thursday morning, but dying out as it crosses the channel. Nothing Friday, and then rain moving in to the Southwest on Saturday morning. 

[Zak M]

Got some timelapse videos now:

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

17th now starting to get within range on the wrf 0.05 ATM looks like elevated cells with instability drifting up from France. Wales and possibly SW England main areas but will be plenty of changes before then given time frame. 

[Zak M]

The BBC have this for Cardiff on Friday:

'On Friday, any showers will merge into longer spells of rain, some heavy and thundery at times.'

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Latest fax chart for Friday shows the front pretty much in agreement with the wrf and the flow from France 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Latest run is a bit different as expected and has cells across Wales later on Thursday and cells associated with the front moving into southern parts of England through Friday, again this is likely to be elevated. 

[viking_smb]

6 hours ago, Zak M said:

The BBC have this for Cardiff on Friday:

'On Friday, any showers will merge into longer spells of rain, some heavy and thundery at times.'

dont say that, I dont want thunderstorms lol 

[Josh Rubio]

4 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Latest run is a bit different as expected and has cells across Wales later on Thursday and cells associated with the front moving into southern parts of England through Friday, again this is likely to be elevated. 

Interesting developments. Looks like a more organised band of rain compared to the other day. Although whether it’ll be elevated and retain its intensity as it moves north is another question. 

CAPE doesn’t look very impressive away from the South/South West but I’m no expert on that.

Finally, how effective will daytime heating be with temps climbing up to around 16 degrees?

Thanks. 

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by Josh Rubio

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

28 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

Interesting developments. Looks like a more organised band of rain compared to the other day. Although whether it’ll be elevated and retain its intensity as it moves north is another question. 

CAPE doesn’t look very impressive away from the South/South West but I’m no expert on that.

Finally, how effective will daytime heating be with temps climbing up to around 16 degrees?

Thanks. 

 

Because it’s elevated it won’t need to rely on surface heating to sustain the electrical activity. This is also how it will (hopefully) be able to pass across the channel without losing steam.

The airmass moving up from Iberia would already consist of unstable air so from what I understand you’d need to be looking at MUCAPE values for a reading of how electrically active these cells or bands of rain might be.

If this is wrong please correct me btw, I’m still learning

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

12 hours ago, Josh Rubio said:

Interesting developments. Looks like a more organised band of rain compared to the other day. Although whether it’ll be elevated and retain its intensity as it moves north is another question. 

CAPE doesn’t look very impressive away from the South/South West but I’m no expert on that.

Finally, how effective will daytime heating be with temps climbing up to around 16 degrees?

Thanks. 

 

Thanks to @Flash bang flash bang etc for his explanation  

I will add, that is possibly why the MUCAPE which is the elevated stuff appears to be more impressive for the end of the week than the SBCAPE (surface based) here is some more info on instability and CAPE etc http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/ingredients/instability/

Forecasting severe convective storms

WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG

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another thing that sometimes needs factoring in as happened in the latest storms and also up here last week, a storm formed in SW Scotland but as it tracked towards me CIN developed and rapidly weakened the cell. 

 

On 10/04/2020 at 20:03, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Good to see the reports of thunder, the wrf handled it pretty well I was going to comment earlier and say don’t be surprised if it is a total bust as the runs from last night and through today showed less interest and also convective inhibition which is probably why those cells have weakened as they head this way  

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints3/905/

Convective Inhibition (CIN)

TORNADO.SFSU.EDU

 

[Josh Rubio]

Thanks for the explanation guys

[Ben Sainsbury]

Hi all,

Haven't been around for a while but the latest round of showers/storms a few days ago have brought me back.

We see an interesting almost Spanish Plume like scenario unfolding Friday into this weekend. Unfortunately since we aren't in July-September the storms won't be as active as we would hope despite that it does still look promising. No charts from me at the moment as we're still a little too far out however Friday evening looks like more general thundery rain as CAPE levels don't look particularly high. Midday Saturday could provide greater potential since we have a larger increase in CAPE & introduction of some basic levels of DLS. These storms all look to be in the form of elevated storms so English Channel SST's won't be a worry. However there's a small risk of something more surface based late Saturday across CS England if skies clear.

[Zak M]

6 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Hi all,

Haven't been around for a while but the latest round of showers/storms a few days ago have brought me back.

We see an interesting almost Spanish Plume like scenario unfolding Friday into this weekend. Unfortunately since we aren't in July-September the storms won't be as active as we would hope despite that it does still look promising. No charts from me at the moment as we're still a little too far out however Friday evening looks like more general thundery rain as CAPE levels don't look particularly high. Midday Saturday could provide greater potential since we have a larger increase in CAPE & introduction of some basic levels of DLS. These storms all look to be in the form of elevated storms so English Channel SST's won't be a worry. However there's a small risk of something more surface based late Saturday across CS England if skies clear.

Hey Ben, I was drooling at some archived storm threads last night and I saw your posts regarding to your insights of some storms. I was impressed! Keep the posts up 

[Ben Sainsbury]

20 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Hey Ben, I was drooling at some archived storm threads last night and I saw your posts regarding to your insights of some storms. I was impressed! Keep the posts up 

Thanks Zak! Am a little bit rusty with all the storm charts at the moment but with all the time in the world over the next few weeks hopefully I can scratch up a little!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Convective Weather has a good write up about some low-probability potential throughout the latter part of today:

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

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Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

They’ve just upgraded to a SLGT for the south east corner

Waiting on some input from UKWW and an update on Metcheck Storms:

Metcheck.com - Storm Forecast Discussions - Weekly Storm Forecast - From 15 April 2020 - Expert Meteorologists Analyse Storm and Convective Forecasts For Countries Around The World.

WWW.METCHECK.COM

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Metcheck.com - Weekly Storm Forecast - From 15 April 2020 - Expert meteorologists take a weekly look at thunderstorm potential around the world with maps and in depth...

And Estofex are on the same page, with a low risk covering the south - with an additional zone of slightly higher potential across to the SW. Their write-up includes this:

Northern France to British Isles

Storms that form will not profit from strong vertical wind shear, and severe potential is limited. Main threat will be locally large hail. Storms will become more elevated late in the period due to persistent forcing and steep mid-level lapse rates.

 

So while today’s probably not astonishing, it’s a good start

Edited April 16, 2020 by Flash bang flash bang etc