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Summer 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    11 minutes ago, markyo said:

    July in Sheffield saw the all time record go,by some margin. Strangely i didn't find it to uncomfortable,a very dry heat,little humidity. By far humidity is the worst type of condition to endure. A moderate Humidex is always better for a lot. So long as this summer offers low to medium humidity then in the current climate bring on the settled weather with interspersed proper rainfall(we are starting to need it), fairly sure many will want this!

    In London, the hot spell in July 2019 felt more humid than any time during summer 2019, and 2018 was a hotter summer. 
     

    The hot spell in July was the high point of last summer. 

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    OK @damianslaw you've tempted me into it.  Mike's forecast for summer 2020: In my view, the building blocks are already built now given the exceptional spring we have had this year in the UK

    Beautiful noctilucent clouds this evening here in Prague 

    This seems to be a facet of our changing climate - in the 1970s and 1980s, it took exceptional synoptics like those of late June 1976 to get temperatures approaching the mid-30s Celsius, and most heat

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Ok, so I can only account for my location, but the relevant stats are as follows:

    2013

    Sunshine 160 hours / Average Daytime Max 23C / Dry Days 23

    During this month, the fine weather was spread across the whole month, with very few maximum sunshine days but decent hours of sunshine on many days.

    2016

    Sunshine 182 hours / Average Daytime Max 22.7C / Dry Days 24

    Very similar to 2013, with slightly worse weather puncuated by stronger hot spells.

    2018

    Sunshine 136.5 hours / Average Daytime Max 22.4C / Dry Days 21

    After a superb start, it collapsed in installments thereafter and the latter part of the month was much more like September.

    2019

    Sunshine 176.5 hours / Average Daytime Max 22.3C / Dry Days 19

    Not a bad month by any means, but much wetter than the previous three, with a string of poorer days in the middle third, sandwiched between a summery first and final third.

     

    It's for those reasons, that the first two Augusts get a higher rating here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    16 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

    2019 will be a forgettable year, just like 2016. It just doesn’t stand out like 2018 or 2013 did. Maybe because we had snow in the latter years, and more interesting weather. 
     

    2019 was quite a boring year. London didn’t have a decent thunderstorm either.

    2010, 2003 and 2018 most memorable years of the last decade. 2010 for the cold early and late, and as you say 2013 and 2018 for the cold in late winter/early spring, Jan as well 2013, and the heat in the summer, 2018 much more so. 2018 was a bit like 2016. 2012 worst year of last decade, the endless rain from April until August, despite the excellent March, and some cold weather in February and early winter. 2011 least inspiring. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: I like Spring. Because some Springs you can sunbathe. Some you can sledge.
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
    8 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    2010, 2003 and 2018 most memorable years of the last decade. 2010 for the cold early and late, and as you say 2013 and 2018 for the cold in late winter/early spring, Jan as well 2013, and the heat in the summer, 2018 much more so. 2018 was a bit like 2016. 2012 worst year of last decade, the endless rain from April until August, despite the excellent March, and some cold weather in February and early winter. 2011 least inspiring. 

    Didn't April 2011 at least stand out as one of the top 3 or so mildest on record?
     

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    interesting but what about this year (see title of thread!)?

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    Posted
  • Location: Musselburgh, East Lothian; 20m elevation.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, preferably thunderstorms, cold and bad weather.
  • Location: Musselburgh, East Lothian; 20m elevation.

    Still awaiting a bit of a cold spell. Is this allowed?

    Otherwise, it'll be the usual vain hope for thunderstorms and heavy rain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Against a background of persistant warmth, odds of a warmer than average season probably high. Question how high? Not expecting a 2018. Perhaps something akin to many recent summers which have since 2013 on the whole been preety decent, with significant spells of warm sunny weather at times, more so in some summers than others.

    Perhaps another summer that reserves its better conditions in the early half (longer sustained spells of dry sunny weather, not necessarily heat), second half much more mixed, usual north west - south east divide, NW wetter and cooler than SE. If La Nina forcing begins to show its hand increasingly so as we move through the summer, a notably unsettled second half could transpire.

    When it comes to summer as winter, I pay less attention to conditions at the early stage, as this is a period of transition, and take more note of background signals, position of jetstream etc in the run up to solstice period, as this is a time when the summer base state is usually set, and you can have a good guess how rest of the summer pans out, just like winter, when it is just before and around christmas you have a good idea how things might pan out.

    In recent summers there has been a bit of a tendency, for decent starts to the summer to dwindle into less special second half especially August, 2017, 2018 good example, conversely some summers that have started poor such as 1995, 2013, have seen fortunes changed by end of June. I

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    June - 15.0C - Largely warmer and sunnier than normal. 

    July - 15.4C - Largely cooler and wetter than normal.

    August - 15.6C - Largely cooler than normal, average precipitation

    10th July-20th August period to be the coolest since probably 2007. 

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    7 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    June - 15.0C - Largely warmer and sunnier than normal. 

    July - 15.4C - Largely cooler and wetter than normal.

    August - 15.6C - Largely cooler than normal, average precipitation

    10th July-20th August period to be the coolest since probably 2007. 

     

     

     

    That sounds pretty bleak. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    5 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

    That sounds pretty bleak. 

    Not surprising from 'Summer Blizzard'......

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    1 hour ago, Alderc said:

    Not surprising from 'Summer Blizzard'......

    I hope he’s wrong. This weather has been very good for bird watching lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
    3 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

    I hope he’s wrong. This weather has been very good for bird watching lol.

    Let’s be fair, you could pick any random figure between 13 and 20 degrees and you’d have just as much chance as anyone at being right. Seasonal forecasting is and always has been a guessing game.

    Edited by cheese
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    1 hour ago, Alderc said:

    Not surprising from 'Summer Blizzard'......

    Despite my preference for a cool summer I bas my seasonal thoughts on what I actually think will happen on an analogue basis. 

    Hit rate over the years has been better than most people but not on par with the actual Mets.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry, West Midlands, 96m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorm, downpours (Extremes)
  • Location: Coventry, West Midlands, 96m ASL

    Soon we should be able to get clear signal for first half of june, Probs starting nice then changable later could be due to northern blocking appearing but yes, seasonal forecast just about a guessing game lol. Front loaded summer is maybe more likely again this year. Also gotta think about MJO, Negative AMM, la nina, hurricane season maybe above average, tripole being shown in ssta's. However signals like pv or sea ice are too weak so summer is often harder to forecast. though right now i need rain lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Would welcome some detailed thoughts on likely factors that will effect this summer. Not really read many forecasts this year. 

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    Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Proper seasonal weather
  • Location: West Midlands

    I have this strong feeling that our weather is going to deteriorate from around mid June and by early July this Spring would feel like a distant memory, before becoming settled again around mid to late July.

    Edited by Weather Enthusiast91
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Well for its worth - thoughts on Summer 2020.

    After a lengthy wet atlantic dominated spell since Summer 2019, mid March brought a major change to more anticyclonic conditions, northerly, easterly and southerly airstreams with the atlantic on permanent lockdown it seems. Will we see conditions remain static through the summer? Were these changes caused by seasonal wavelengths and the decline of the PV only, or something more substantive and longer lasting in effect - would welcome thoughts on more professional forecasters, those who have the know..

    As we move through summer the atlantic tends on average to gain the upper hand again, tropical interference has a greater influence, and the ENSO state can disrupt patterns more. La Nina or at least a weak one is forecast to develop over the summer, and analogues show such developments tend to produce mid atlantic highs and cooler NW patterns, might we see some indications how things might pan out in early June - how far west will heights get and sustain themselves, might this be a recurring pattern/theme through the summer, ridge / trough development, ridge losing ground to the trough as summer progresses - quite plausible.

    General summations:

    June - generally fine and sunny, warm and dry weather. Cool interlude early on bringing some rain or showers. Second half, ridge back over the UK, but possibly not quite as sustained as in April and May and a weakened feature. End June back to unsettled.

    July - Mixed, ridge mid atlantic, cool NW airstream predominating, most rain for the NW, could be preety dry and warm in the SE

    August - same as July, but generally wetter.

    A summer that reserves its best conditions first half.

     

    As said not read many forecasts or thoughts from others this year - would welcome these. Factors influencing the summer and how it may pan out.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    OK @damianslaw you've tempted me into it. 

    Mike's forecast for summer 2020:

    In my view, the building blocks are already built now given the exceptional spring we have had this year in the UK.  Building blocks to what, though, is the question....hot, unsettled, thundery?  

    I think that long term forecasting is all about what is  the driver that is overriding all others.  Last winter we were surprised by the Met Office about the Indian Ocean Dipole as the (eventually correct) driver for our rubbish winter, I can confess I had never even heard of it before.  

    So let's start for summer, with something that seems to be significant, SSTs in the Atlantic.  Now:

    image.thumb.jpg.b8049a3b57b27751d87a8ec9f89bf33d.jpg

    A week ago:

    image.thumb.jpg.9406f495dd78dad562499da818f56e14.jpg

    A month ago:

    image.thumb.jpg.0cdac55372b5b39386ce9363b0df079d.jpg

    You can see positive feedback in reverse there!  What was a fairly diffuse pattern  a month ago has firmed up into a pattern with warm SSTs from the Azores to the UK, and colder out west.  Following our recent weather.   This provides a convenient trough magnet out west and ridge magnet in our locale.   

    So when this currently forecast blip passes, the likelihood is that the classic hot summer pattern of ridging from the Azores to the UK will resume...I hope so, as I told 200 people in the company I work for last week!   

    So...if I take the SST picture as main driver at the moment, we need to ask what might override this and become the driver?  This will become more important as we go further into the summer and uncertainty increases.  

    Atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) is one thing, this is currently wobbling about average, or just above here CFS take on it:

    image.thumb.jpg.b4594e24ed3c13992dbf5024dd45a1da.jpg

    but one thing that could cause this to fall is La Niña in the Pacific taking hold.  So there is a chance that the SST picture in the North Atlantic could cease to be the overriding factor if AAM plummets and ridging over the UK or to the east of the UK becomes more implausible.    In my view, that is not likely until late July or early August, meaning a largely hot sunny summer, some, but not many thundery breakdowns, but a more unsettled August, maybe, but that is subject to more uncertainty. 

    Everyone, try to enjoy summer in this weird world we now inhabit, and stay safe!

    Regards

    Mike

     

    Thanks Mike for your thoughts. I agree SST profile currently is conducive to ridge development to the east of the cold water i.e. vicinity of the UK, but as you say the overriding factor could well be, and most likely will be ENSO and how it behaves. Current forecast is for a weak La Nina, but should it move into more moderate territory this increases the chances of the ridge being too far west and instead the UK is the home for the trough and as you say if this happens it is more likely to effect the second half of the summer, hence my reasoning for suggesting best conditions most likely to be reserved for the first half. The other unknown is development in the tropics, we are forecast to have a strong hurricane season and as we know one tropical storm can have big implications for the UK, changing the pattern markedly. Such developments usually come to the surface second half of the summer and can never be forecast other than in the semi-reliable range.

    Good therefore to keep an eye on ENSO over the coming weeks.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: East Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: East Exeter, Devon

    My forecast has just been released here on N-W.  When I looked at the ENSO composites for this year, assuming a slide from weakly positive to weakly negative, June came out with a high pressure anomaly to the west of the UK, July came out quite cyclonic and August came out anticyclonic, though again with the biggest high pressure anomaly to the west of the UK.  Some very interesting points from Mike Poole about the SST signal, which I admit I had not examined closely when coming up with my forecast - this adds to the evidence suggesting that the upcoming spell of northerly and north-westerly winds in early June will probably be followed by a resumption of the ridge over the UK.  However, if the ENSO signal takes over into July we will probably see a breakdown of the ridge to some degree, with a stronger influence from westerlies.

    1995 and 2007 both saw a transition to a weak La Nina state by August and although the two summers were very different, August 2007 was also pretty anticyclonic, though not particularly warm with high pressure centred to the west of the UK.  In my summer forecast I plumped for a 2005 or 2007-like August being the most likely scenario but saw a slight chance of us ending up with an August more like that of 1995.  

    I agree that a shift to a stronger La Nina state could send the high pressure anomaly further west for August and leave the trough close to the UK, August 2010 being a pretty good example.  I have been banking on that not happening, as not many of the ENSO forecast ensembles from NMME, the Met Office or ECMWF have gone for a particularly strong La Nina state, but I am aware that things can change a lot when we're talking three months out.  I have been "bitten" in the past by being too specific for month 3 of the forecast period, notably in the winter of 2018/19 when, like many others to be fair, I stuck my neck out on a cold "easterly" February, but the large lobe of polar vortex over Canada and other factors scuppered this and resulted in a record-breaking warm and sunny February instead.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    My summer forecast for 2020 feel free to check it out! I'm quite proud of it, if I'm allowed to say that.

    file.png
    WWW.THESNOWDREAMERWXBLOG.COM

    Would you believe it the time has come? A new season brings its new challenges, in deciphering the longstanding oceanic/atmospheric teleconnections, one can gain an idea of how the summer may...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

    Hottest day of the year so far is 28.3C on May 29th:

    Met Office climate station link: (Cromdale)

    WWW.STRATHSPEYWEATHER.CO.UK

    Great first day of Meteorological Summer UK wide:

    Temperature peaked here at 22C - glorious day relaxing on the local beach with a lovely display of Cirrus clouds overhead.

    FCDE013E-882D-42D0-A8FD-1B68E584535C.thumb.jpeg.91619bfd17451416b43315702ef526a0.jpeg

    Another warm/hot one tomorrow for most of the UK - interesting to see what the highest temperature will be.

    I enjoyed reading the Summer forecasts above - all the best to each of you!

    Edited by Mr Frost
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Excellent forecast Daniel and ties in with my thoughts, an ok June best conditions second half, July warmth and drier conditions holding out in the SE in the main but not without some rain at times, cooler and wetter further NW, August once again not holding out much hope for..

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    20 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Excellent forecast Daniel and ties in with my thoughts, an ok June best conditions second half, July warmth and drier conditions holding out in the SE in the main but not without some rain at times, cooler and wetter further NW, August once again not holding out much hope for..

    Thanks Damian, nice to hear that coming from you...it is quite an uncertain summer ahead I have conflicting ideas with SSTs, QBO, timing and strength associated with developing La Niña, I feel late summer will be affected. Despite uncertainty I would say nothing is screaming a 1976/2018 repeat. 

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