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Summer 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    9 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    For me May 2018 pips 1989 because of the consistently high maximum temperatures- May 89 had a lot more cool days below 15C here looking at the records. 

    Where is 'here'?  These are those May months in London.

    1989: 

    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

    Résumé mensuel des observations météo ( températures minimales et maximales, précipitations et ensoleillement) de la station...

     

    2018: 

    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

    Résumé mensuel des observations météo ( températures minimales et maximales, précipitations et ensoleillement) de la station...

    1989 was warmer and sunnier, with 310 hours vs 248 hours.

     

     

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    OK @damianslaw you've tempted me into it.  Mike's forecast for summer 2020: In my view, the building blocks are already built now given the exceptional spring we have had this year in the UK

    Beautiful noctilucent clouds this evening here in Prague 

    This seems to be a facet of our changing climate - in the 1970s and 1980s, it took exceptional synoptics like those of late June 1976 to get temperatures approaching the mid-30s Celsius, and most heat

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    20 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Looking ahead to summer and for the ENSO it looks like the best matches could be 1980 and 2005. They were both at the end of +ENSO events which got a second wind in 1979 and 2004 respectively just as we will likely have had a technical Nino in the winter gone.

    The composite signal from those two years suggest reasonable confidence on a warmer and settled April (check) and a cooler but probably not wet May (trough over Scandi, block over Greenland), the signal breaks down at a CET level for June and July (2005 went warm, 1980 cool) but does then suggest a cool and dry August followed by a warmer September and signal for strong vortex reformation.

    I should say that we only have those two because Q1 periods that were +ENSO or weak Nino actually tend to be followed by Q2 periods which either gun for the Nino or collapse to negative values much more quickly.

    On a knife edge as to whether we get a an average/decent summer (2005) or a very poor one (1980) then.

    Summer 1980 didn't even reach 30c here, and the July was joint coldest on record with 1954.

    Edited by B87
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    1 hour ago, B87 said:

    On a knife edge as to whether we get a an average/decent summer (2005) or a very poor one (1980) then.

    Summer 1980 didn't even reach 30c here, and the July was joint coldest on record with 1954.

    That's assuming we don't see a quicker collapse to negative values.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    2 hours ago, B87 said:

    Where is 'here'?  These are those May months in London.

    1989: 

    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

    Résumé mensuel des observations météo ( températures minimales et maximales, précipitations et ensoleillement) de la station...

     

    2018: 

    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

    Résumé mensuel des observations météo ( températures minimales et maximales, précipitations et ensoleillement) de la station...

    1989 was warmer and sunnier, with 310 hours vs 248 hours.

     

     

    Manchester...the easterly winds in May 2018 meant we were favoured

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
    On 26/04/2020 at 15:18, Scorcher said:

    Manchester...the easterly winds in May 2018 meant we were favoured

    May 2018 was a weird north/south split sort of month, it was sunnier than 1989 here too. It was very high pressure based but the high pressure was quite far north so areas like London and the south-east were relatively cloudier as they were often on the southern flank of the high. This also meant higher rainfall totals there too compared to further north.

    It was pretty much the perfect setup for sunny weather here in the north for both sides of the Pennines.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    1 hour ago, reef said:

    May 2018 was a weird north/south split sort of month, it was sunnier than 1989 here too. It was very high pressure based but the high pressure was quite far north so areas like London and the south-east were relatively cloudier as they were often on the southern flank of the high. This also meant higher rainfall totals there too compared to further north.

    It was pretty much the perfect setup for sunny weather here in the north for both sides of the Pennines.

    Yes a good explanation there. I don't think I've experienced such a continuously sunny month- not that I can remember anyway and I don't remember 1992.

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

    Yes a good explanation there. I don't think I've experienced such a continuously sunny month- not that I can remember anyway and I don't remember 1992.

    1992 was fairly sunny and warm during May. For some reason though, I tend to remember the thunderstorms towards the end of the month, and the thundery spells in June and July that year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London

    There were very sunny Mays in 1989, 1990, 1992 and 2018.

    I've wondered how we never seem to have a very warm May like we can with April or June. The warmest May on record in London had an average high of 21.2c, which is only about 3c above normal. April 2011's 19.7c avg max was just over 5c above normal! June 1976 at 25.5c was 4.5c above.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    31 minutes ago, B87 said:

    There were very sunny Mays in 1989, 1990, 1992 and 2018.

    I've wondered how we never seem to have a very warm May like we can with April or June. The warmest May on record in London had an average high of 21.2c, which is only about 3c above normal. April 2011's 19.7c avg max was just over 5c above normal! June 1976 at 25.5c was 4.5c above.

    I've started a thread about May's of the past and good weather. This thread has gone off on a bit of a tangent, suggest posts about past May's are included in the historic weather thread, and keep this thread about upcoming summer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    20 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

    Ok, I’m going for a summer 1980.

    I decided to update my prediction. We will have a stormy summer.

    An absolutely dreadful summer. July had an average high of 19.7c, the coldest on record along with 1954.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    43 minutes ago, B87 said:

    An absolutely dreadful summer. July had an average high of 19.7c, the coldest on record along with 1954.

    Is it even possible to get a summer that cold any more with global warming?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Is it even possible to get a summer that cold any more with global warming?!

    Anything's possible but less likely nowadays.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Only 0.5C cooler than July 07 and 11 to be fair.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    11 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Only 0.5C cooler than July 07 and 11 to be fair.

    Not in London. Avg max/min/ mean

    July 1980: 19.7/11.9/ 15.8

    July 2007: 21.4/13.1/ 17.3

    July 2011: 21.7/12.6/ 17.1

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    12 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    Is it even possible to get a summer that cold any more with global warming?!

    2012 and 2011 were pretty close. Those summers were horrible. Not as cold, but definitely long periods of cloudy and cool wet days.

     

    I’m not hoping for a 1980, but feel like one is coming up. 2020 is the start of the new decade, how ironic! Lol.

    Summer of 1980 was sandwiched between two relatively mild winters, so a chilly summer is possible, even after a mild winter. 
     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    10 hours ago, B87 said:

    Not in London. Avg max/min/ mean

    July 1980: 19.7/11.9/ 15.8

    July 2007: 21.4/13.1/ 17.3

    July 2011: 21.7/12.6/ 17.1

    No doubt, but 07 and 11 were pretty awful. I remember it feeling humid, but also cold on some days even in London.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Weather Preferences: anticyclonic unless a snow storm
  • Location: Coventry

    Hoping for a 2018. I spent much of that summer camping in my own garden because I dislike hot nights.  Expecting a 2019. Given the warming we are experiencing globally, a cool summer will be an anomaly.

    Edited by BlueSkies_do_I_see
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    Posted
  • Location: Crossgates, Leeds. 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Temperatures below 25C. Also Winter.
  • Location: Crossgates, Leeds. 76m ASL

    I'm hoping for another hot, sunny summer but with a few more storms up here....

    Last year was awesome as my roof solar generated enough electricity to null out the daytime cost of running the A/C.

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    Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
  • Location: Perth, Scotland

    After a very wet winter and quite a dry spring so far, I reckon Summer 2020 will be quite similar to the likes of 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010 and 2019 in the sense of being unsettled and some areas faring off far better than others. I think overall it will be a dry summer in a line north of the Manchester but very wet in the south. Northern and eastern areas will have a very sunny summer whereas it will be a dull summer in the south and extremely dull in the south west. However all areas to be warmer than average. 

    June: Generally warmer than average, very wet in the south but sunny everywhere, to be rather cool and wet in all areas in the first week before becoming more settled but very cool especially at night with some ground frost even in the south before becoming warm/hot and sunny in all areas but with some big thunderstorms in the south. 

    Warmest temperatures: 31.7.C (England), 30.2.C (Wales), 27.4.C (Scotland), 26.2.C (Northern Ireland)

    Coldest temperatures: -0.4.C (England), 0.8.C (Wales), -2.2.C (Scotland), -0.7.C (Northern Ireland)

    Wettest area: South East England, Driest Area: Northern Ireland

    Sunniest Area: North-East England, Dullest Area: South West England

    July: A warm month everywhere, for Scotland one of the driest and sunniest on record. However one of the dullest on record in the south although many places to be drier than average, a heatwave in the middle of the month bringing temperatures of 30.C+ in northern areas and to 35.C+ in the south before a thundery breakdown. A wet, cool final week in the south but dry and warm further north with sunshine only in eastern areas.

    Warmest temperatures: 36.3.C (England), 33.8.C (Wales) 32.6.C (Scotland) 29.7.C (Northern Ireland)

    Coldest temperatures: England: 5.7.C, Wales: 3.2.C, Scotland: 1.8.C, Northern Ireland: 3.6.C

    Wettest area: Midlands, Driest area: Eastern Scotland

    Sunniest Area: Eastern Scotland, Dullest Area: South Coast

    August: Sunny and dry in the east and north but wet and dull in the south and west. A very cyclonic month in the south west and also cool but with eastern areas faring better. Nowhere will exceed 30.C until the last couple of days. Close to average temperatures everywhere.

    Warmest temperatures: England: 31.3.C, Wales: 26.8.C, Scotland: 27.9.C, Northern Ireland: 27.3.C

    Coldest temperatures: England: 3.8.C, Wales: 4.8.C, Scotland: 0.3.C, Northern Ireland: 2.2.C

    Wettest Area: South East, Driest area: Northern Scotland

    Sunniest Area: Eastern Scotland, Dullest Area: South West 

     

    Top temperatures 

    June

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    2 hours ago, Harry233 said:

    After a very wet winter and quite a dry spring so far, I reckon Summer 2020 will be quite similar to the likes of 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010 and 2019 in the sense of being unsettled and some areas faring off far better than others. I think overall it will be a dry summer in a line north of the Manchester but very wet in the south. Northern and eastern areas will have a very sunny summer whereas it will be a dull summer in the south and extremely dull in the south west. However all areas to be warmer than average. 

    June: Generally warmer than average, very wet in the south but sunny everywhere, to be rather cool and wet in all areas in the first week before becoming more settled but very cool especially at night with some ground frost even in the south before becoming warm/hot and sunny in all areas but with some big thunderstorms in the south. 

    Warmest temperatures: 31.7.C (England), 30.2.C (Wales), 27.4.C (Scotland), 26.2.C (Northern Ireland)

    Coldest temperatures: -0.4.C (England), 0.8.C (Wales), -2.2.C (Scotland), -0.7.C (Northern Ireland)

    Wettest area: South East England, Driest Area: Northern Ireland

    Sunniest Area: North-East England, Dullest Area: South West England

    July: A warm month everywhere, for Scotland one of the driest and sunniest on record. However one of the dullest on record in the south although many places to be drier than average, a heatwave in the middle of the month bringing temperatures of 30.C+ in northern areas and to 35.C+ in the south before a thundery breakdown. A wet, cool final week in the south but dry and warm further north with sunshine only in eastern areas.

    Warmest temperatures: 36.3.C (England), 33.8.C (Wales) 32.6.C (Scotland) 29.7.C (Northern Ireland)

    Coldest temperatures: England: 5.7.C, Wales: 3.2.C, Scotland: 1.8.C, Northern Ireland: 3.6.C

    Wettest area: Midlands, Driest area: Eastern Scotland

    Sunniest Area: Eastern Scotland, Dullest Area: South Coast

    August: Sunny and dry in the east and north but wet and dull in the south and west. A very cyclonic month in the south west and also cool but with eastern areas faring better. Nowhere will exceed 30.C until the last couple of days. Close to average temperatures everywhere.

    Warmest temperatures: England: 31.3.C, Wales: 26.8.C, Scotland: 27.9.C, Northern Ireland: 27.3.C

    Coldest temperatures: England: 3.8.C, Wales: 4.8.C, Scotland: 0.3.C, Northern Ireland: 2.2.C

    Wettest Area: South East, Driest area: Northern Scotland

    Sunniest Area: Eastern Scotland, Dullest Area: South West 

     

    Top temperatures 

    June

     

     

    Sounds like a horrible summer for London. 

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    Considering years from 1950 to present, my best analogue years are 1974, 1980, 1988, 2007

    No year is ever a perfect match of course. I have rejected years with dry winters or El Nino summers as it looks likely there will be a tendency towards La Nina during summer 2020.

    However, Matt Hugo on Twitter has posted today that a seasonal model update he has access to is now showing a +ve pressure anomaly for NW Europe this summer. This gives hope to anyone who might find memories of the years mentioned above a little depressing. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    12 minutes ago, John S2 said:

    Considering years from 1950 to present, my best analogue years are 1974, 1980, 1988, 2007

    No year is ever a perfect match of course. I have rejected years with dry winters or El Nino summers as it looks likely there will be a tendency towards La Nina during summer 2020.

    However, Matt Hugo on Twitter has posted today that a seasonal model update he has access to is now showing a +ve pressure anomaly for NW Europe this summer. This gives hope to anyone who might find memories of the years mentioned above a little depressing. 

    Those analogue years are absolutely horrifying.

    Heathrow average maxes

    1974: J 20.1c, J, 20.9c, A 21.5c

    1980: J 19.8c, J 19.7c, A 21.9c

    1988: J 19.7c, J 20.0c, A 21.8c

    2007: J 21.2c, J 21.4c, A 21.5c

    A bunch of analogues that have 2007 as the best outcome don't bear thinking about!

    A 25% chance of an average June, a 100% chance of a significantly below average July and August.

    Edited by B87
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    26 minutes ago, B87 said:

    Those analogue years are absolutely horrifying.

    Heathrow average maxes

    1974: J 20.1c, J, 20.9c, A 21.5c

    1980: J 19.8c, J 19.7c, A 21.9c

    1988: J 19.7c, J 20.0c, A 21.8c

    2007: J 21.2c, J 21.4c, A 21.5c

    A bunch of analogues that have 2007 as the best outcome don't bear thinking about!

    A 25% chance of an average June, a 100% chance of a significantly below average July and August.

    Does anyone actually get analogue forecasts right...on a regular basis?

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    And a cold winter isn’t guaranteed, even with a poor summer. 1980, 2007, and 1974 were all followed by mild winters.

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