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Summer 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    1 hour ago, MP-R said:

    Wow that's pretty impressive given the synoptics. 158.3mm and 132 hours of sun for here. 90.5mm of that came on the 24th alone during Child of Nadine, and remains the wettest day I've ever recorded.

    I actually got those figures mixed up. September 2007 had 15mm and 140 hours. September 2012 had 40mm and 180 hours.

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    OK @damianslaw you've tempted me into it.  Mike's forecast for summer 2020: In my view, the building blocks are already built now given the exceptional spring we have had this year in the UK

    Beautiful noctilucent clouds this evening here in Prague 

    This seems to be a facet of our changing climate - in the 1970s and 1980s, it took exceptional synoptics like those of late June 1976 to get temperatures approaching the mid-30s Celsius, and most heat

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    June - Average month, max temps and rainfall.
    July -  A locked heatwave pattern sets up mid month lasting days and days of mid 30Cs, overnight maximum will go.
    August - Locked heatwave pattern continues ending with a good plumey breakdown on the 12th.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Mellow autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
    23 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:


    although having said that, this current sunny spell in April is giving me nightmares about the washout summer of 2007, and on that point alone we can't rule out a complete washout of a season.

    What will actually happen? ... Only time will tell. :unknw:
     

    Hello everyone :oldsmile:
    Further to my post yesterday, its suddenly dawned on me this evening that we had a very warm, sunny spell round about the middle of April 2003... And look how the summer of 2003 turned out! ☀️?️⛈️

    Now ok... I admit that I'm clutching at straws here. :oldlaugh:

    But as I said yesterday, what will happen? Only time will tell. 

    And for those who can't remember what happened in the summer of 2003, here's Gavin Partridge from Gavs Weather Vids with a historic video on the hot and thundery summer of 2003. :oldsmile:
     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    1 hour ago, Dangerous55019 said:

    Hello everyone :oldsmile:
    Further to my post yesterday, its suddenly dawned on me this evening that we had a very warm, sunny spell round about the middle of April 2003... And look how the summer of 2003 turned out! ☀️?️⛈️

    Now ok... I admit that I'm clutching at straws here. :oldlaugh:

    But as I said yesterday, what will happen? Only time will tell. 

    And for those who can't remember what happened in the summer of 2003, here's Gavin Partridge from Gavs Weather Vids with a historic video on the hot and thundery summer of 2003. :oldsmile:
     

     

    April 1997 was also sunny very dry and warm...August 1997 2nd hottest on record

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

    April 1997 was also sunny very dry and warm...August 1997 2nd hottest on record

    Summer 97 was indeed a very warm one, with that hot August, but it was also very wet, severe flooding in June, and August brought torrential downpours and thunderstorms - only time I felt I was living in a tropical monsoon climate! It was excessively humid.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London

    I'd take a repeat of 1997. A very poor June, but July was average and August was warm to hot.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    2 hours ago, B87 said:

    I'd take a repeat of 1997. A very poor June, but July was average and August was warm to hot.

    August was indeed hit but also very wet not a good combo.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

    August was indeed hit but also very wet not a good combo.

    It had 11 rainy days, which is more than usual but not excessively so. Mostly clustered in the first and last weeks of the month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    In my own research I have come to the rather depressing conclusion that the magnetic field rapid shifts might make analogue forecasting almost worthless, we have a setup now that has not existed (to our limited knowledge) at any point in the past thousand years and maybe a lot longer than that, so we really don't have access to analogues at all. This may be why long-range forecasting programs that were showing promise a decade ago have fallen into disrepair more recently. 

    I think the only thing strongly supported by this analysis is my controversial view (as I've found) that natural warming will accelerate regardless of what if any actions are taken to curtail greenhouse gas production, and in any case I think we all realize that the political will to do that is limited both in its scope and in its realistic chance to succeed in any plausible scenario.

    So that leaves us at the point of facing up to an almost inevitable shift to a warmer climate than we've known in the past. The real "normal" summer at this point is probably about an average of the top 20 or 30 summers. I think it is very unlikely that we would see monthly means below even the 1981-2010 averages more than once a decade for quite a while. Having said that, if the magnetic field shifts even more rapidly there could be a period 20-30 years from now with a rapid decline in mean temperatures in Europe. North America on the other hand could see accelerated warming trends. 

    So for 2020, the summer outlook based on probability alone would be very warm, and this tells us little about most likely rainfall beyond the obvious aspect that a warm summer is about two thirds likely to be a dry summer, at least regionally. So I feel like my most likely to succeed prediction would be warm and dry. It seems unlikely in statistical terms that we would see a second occasion on the trot where the daily maximum is equalled (as we saw last summer) but then the time before that (1948) the mark was set in an otherwise rather cool summer with the one out of the blue heat wave, whereas last summer kept trying to set records. A better analogue outside of the large-scale shift might be 1869 which had a mild winter followed by brief record warmth around the same time in early April, and then went on to produce a rather variable pattern that included some cool spells and some brief record warmth in August. 

    Blending all of this together, I'm going to suggest a summer rather like 2005 perhaps. Don't be at all surprised if there is record breaking heat at some point. I would set the odds at 70% likely that at least one daily record will occur in the summer three months. 

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    Not another 1997. That summer was horrible.

    It was cloudy and wet on and off during June and July. August was the only decent month, and even that was very humid and cloudy at times

    I would take a cool dry summer over 1997.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff
    1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

    In my own research I have come to the rather depressing conclusion that the magnetic field rapid shifts might make analogue forecasting almost worthless, we have a setup now that has not existed (to our limited knowledge) at any point in the past thousand years and maybe a lot longer than that, so we really don't have access to analogues at all. This may be why long-range forecasting programs that were showing promise a decade ago have fallen into disrepair more recently. 

    I think the only thing strongly supported by this analysis is my controversial view (as I've found) that natural warming will accelerate regardless of what if any actions are taken to curtail greenhouse gas production, and in any case I think we all realize that the political will to do that is limited both in its scope and in its realistic chance to succeed in any plausible scenario.

    So that leaves us at the point of facing up to an almost inevitable shift to a warmer climate than we've known in the past. The real "normal" summer at this point is probably about an average of the top 20 or 30 summers. I think it is very unlikely that we would see monthly means below even the 1981-2010 averages more than once a decade for quite a while. Having said that, if the magnetic field shifts even more rapidly there could be a period 20-30 years from now with a rapid decline in mean temperatures in Europe. North America on the other hand could see accelerated warming trends. 

    So for 2020, the summer outlook based on probability alone would be very warm, and this tells us little about most likely rainfall beyond the obvious aspect that a warm summer is about two thirds likely to be a dry summer, at least regionally. So I feel like my most likely to succeed prediction would be warm and dry. It seems unlikely in statistical terms that we would see a second occasion on the trot where the daily maximum is equalled (as we saw last summer) but then the time before that (1948) the mark was set in an otherwise rather cool summer with the one out of the blue heat wave, whereas last summer kept trying to set records. A better analogue outside of the large-scale shift might be 1869 which had a mild winter followed by brief record warmth around the same time in early April, and then went on to produce a rather variable pattern that included some cool spells and some brief record warmth in August. 

    Blending all of this together, I'm going to suggest a summer rather like 2005 perhaps. Don't be at all surprised if there is record breaking heat at some point. I would set the odds at 70% likely that at least one daily record will occur in the summer three months. 

    Are you saying that Earth's magnetic field affects the climate?  Because that is completely wrong.

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    35 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

    Are you saying that Earth's magnetic field affects the climate?  Because that is completely wrong.

    Something happened in August 1987, which saw a shift in the climate. Someone mentioned it on here, about something from outer space. But, like everything else, it’s to be taken with a pinch of salt.

    I think climate change started much further back than 1987.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    35 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

    Are you saying that Earth's magnetic field affects the climate?  Because that is completely wrong.

    Cant comment on before. Post above 2005 was a decent summer in a run of very good summers 2003-2006. There were some decent warm sunny dry conditions interspersed with wetter spells. Could handle that. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London

    June 2005 was warm, but July and August were nothing special. A fairly standard summer that year.

    I wonder if the June sunshine record will fall again this year, like it did in 2012 (118 hours) and 2016 (101 hours).

    Edited by B87
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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    There used to be a lot of interest in possible connections between geomagnetism and the weather, and it gradually died out in the 20th century as researchers failed to find useful working relationships. My perspective is fairly general about this, I think the general circulation (which is obviously driven by many other factors) responds in a second-order type of signal to changes in the location and strength of the magnetic field. In general terms, this fits what has happened from 1840 when the North Magnetic Pole was at 70 deg N and about 95 W to the present where it has wandered northwest to 86 deg N and now into the east Siberian sector of the high latitudes. 

    Temperatures continued to warm steadily as the pole pulled away to the north, and now the main component of motion is westward, into regions where it has not been located as far as we can determine for many centuries (the speculation is that before being reliably located in the 1830s, the NMP was in the western Canadian arctic islands during the Maunder minimum). 

    I think all I am saying here is that a second-order signal is likely to show up where eastern Siberia tends to cool off (coming into higher geomagnetic latitude settings as the pole drifts west and possibly later even southwest), and North America continues to show a warming tendency (which I agree is supported by other factors such as the AGW signal too). Time will tell if this speculation has any merit. As for Europe, the pole is still a long way off and so magnetic latitudes are not decreasing very fast now, but they might do so within a few decades and this could be a factor pushing jet streams a bit further south as well as I would suspect making chaotic flow patterns more frequent (blocking signals). But be aware that I don't assert any of these things as over-riding controls, just tendencies within a large number of other signals. 

    Nobody should be too categorical about what is right or wrong about atmospheric variation theory because until we have one that we know is totally correct (like a physics equation that you can verify in a lab) then all ideas can be tested and maybe some are not as ruled out as you might believe. The AGW lobby have decided to assert that their signal has overwhelmed all other signals, which seems to me more of a political than a scientific proposition. There again, remember back around 2005 we were being told confidently that Britain would never see snow or CET values below 3 degrees ever again. I am more open to a wider range of potential causation (as I was then if you might dimly recall life before this year). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham
  • Weather Preferences: Anything non-disruptive, and some variety
  • Location: Horsham
    13 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

    The AGW lobby have decided to assert that their signal has overwhelmed all other signals, which seems to me more of a political than a scientific proposition.

    No it isn't, it is based on the best scientific conclusion from the available evidence and what we understand about the laws of physics. That is not to say there isn't internal variability which can mask or amplify the long term warming signal on short timescales, but internal variability does not contribute to a long term climate change. The only way the global climate can change is by a forcing, and human activities have been that forcing for the last 200 years.

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    The long range MetO forecast are going for average temperatures which would be brilliant after the excessively hot summers recently!

    2018 was excessively hot, and maybe parts of July 2013.

    Most recent ones haven't been anything to write home about. A day or so of 35c, when the rest of the summer is 21c-23c isn't excessive in my book.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

    2018 was excessively hot, and maybe parts of July 2013.

    Most recent ones haven't been anything to write home about. A day or so of 35c, when the rest of the summer is 21c-23c isn't excessive in my book.

    July 2015 had average temps looking at the data, but that was one day of record breaking (at the time) heat, followed by 30 days of temps that were mostly below average.

    https://www.meteociel.fr/climatologie/villes.php?code=3772&mois=7&annee=2015

    Edited by B87
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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    2 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    The long range MetO forecast are going for average temperatures which would be brilliant after the excessively hot summers recently!

    Average temperatures would be great. Something like 2001 or 2005 would still be an alright summer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    On 18/04/2020 at 08:39, B87 said:

    June 2005 was warm, but July and August were nothing special. A fairly standard summer that year.

    I wonder if the June sunshine record will fall again this year, like it did in 2012 (118 hours) and 2016 (101 hours).

    The heat was actually mid-June to mid-July with early June being quite cool.

    Would be interesting to see the CET values for the second half of June (warmest since 76) and first half of July.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    7 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    The heat was actually mid-June to mid-July with early June being quite cool.

    Would be interesting to see the CET values for the second half of June (warmest since 76) and first half of July.

    Good summer for thunderstorms too! There were several warm/hot spells in August and early September as well with continued thundery spells until midmonth.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    15 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    The heat was actually mid-June to mid-July with early June being quite cool.

    Would be interesting to see the CET values for the second half of June (warmest since 76) and first half of July.

    In London average highs were 22.8c in June, 23.2c in July and August.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire

    I saw a newspaper article recently drawing comparisons between this April and 2007, and most of us will remember the floods of that summer. I'm not into predictions but I suspect there will be many who will not wish to see a repeat of 2007, notably those who have still not been able to return to their homes after the floods of early 2020 (remember them?), and will probably not be able to return for some time to come. Some contributors have talked of the lockdown ending by June. Hmmm! I suspect that some politicians will be hoping that this summer is a cold washout, with sleet and snow helping to keep people off the streets and out of trouble. And that is a purely personal, non-political view!    

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodland Garden, South Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and Humid weather, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Woodland Garden, South Yorks

    My ideal summer (which is feasible for the location, if unlikely):

    June: Avg low 12, Avg high 22, 250 hours sun, 10mm rain.

    Jult: Avg low 14, Avg high 25, 300 hours sun, 15mm rain.

    August: Aug low 14, Aug high 24, 290 hours sun, 10mm rain.

    I actually like rain in summer if it's warm enough, but the UK's summers are too cold for rain, so I prefer dry and sunny in that case.

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