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Summer 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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OK @damianslaw you've tempted me into it.  Mike's forecast for summer 2020: In my view, the building blocks are already built now given the exceptional spring we have had this year in the UK

Beautiful noctilucent clouds this evening here in Prague 

This seems to be a facet of our changing climate - in the 1970s and 1980s, it took exceptional synoptics like those of late June 1976 to get temperatures approaching the mid-30s Celsius, and most heat

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1 hour ago, stodge said:

Day 4 of the Great Heat of 2020 (as I'm calling it) and in lowland East London we reached 31-32c (not sure as I have to work for a living).

Wednesday looked very unpleasant in terms of heat and humidity but that seems to have been toned down a bit tonight. The heat hangs on in East Anglia into Thursday and next week may be quite the shock to the system.

I'm less convinced about thunderstorms in my part of the world though I do think west and south-west England may continue to be prone to pulses of heavy rain coming north for a few days yet.

Was in Canning Town earlier, it was actually cooler than where I usuaally am in south essex. was 29c there at around 12 when it was 31c back in essex

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33 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

The storms are a bit underwhelming .. anyway, 37°C tomorrow. The heat is almost becoming normal now and doesn't feel that bad. ☀️

37c where? I'm not seeing it. MO headline temps have always been off the mark. I like hot periods but not this long. It wouldn't be bad if it wasn't so damn warm at night. Even back last year when we had that record breakg one day hot spell in my area it dropped to like 13C at night

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4 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

37c where? I'm not seeing it. MO headline temps have always been off the mark. I like hot periods but not this long. It wouldn't be bad if it wasn't so damn warm at night. Even back last year when we had that record breakg one day hot spell in my area it dropped to like 13C at night

1. Temps will have higher starting point.

2. A better feed off the continent.

3. Less influence from storms (more focused out west)

So 37 is a definite possibility.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

1. Temps will have higher starting point.

2. A better feed off the continent.

3. Less influence from storms (more focused out west)

So 37 is a definite possibility.

 

 

Possibility, but they've underestimated them so far and there's still uncertainty over cloud cover and if the thunderstorms move east

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Having experienced a number of days at 35c+ in London over the last few years, we sometimes might wonder if you can tell the difference between say, 31 and 36 degrees. Believe me you bloody can. When it gets to the mid 30s, and you aren’t on holiday somewhere nice with air conditioning, the heat seeps into you. When you get mid 30s temperatures for a few days on the bounce, you feel it even more. 
 

Weirdly this is more oppressive than when it got to 37.8c about 10 days ago, as that was a one off. When the heat is sustained you feel it much more. I remember the same feeling in August 2003. 

Edited by danm
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6 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

If you like the heat make the most of it. September to April is essentially cool. Give or take the odd extremity. 

September can easily be warmer than June in most of the UK. There's barely 1c difference in average highs here (21c in June, 20c in September).

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So are we actually going to challenge this high minima record? Why is it we've surpassed the 1990 temperature record three times since, and by some distance, but can't touch the minima record? Surely as good a chance as we'll get in the next two days?

However, although according to models like Arpege I should be in a good position in Portsmouth to get it, we're already down to 22.5C here tonight.

Edited by Man With Beard
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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

So are we actually going to challenge this high minima record? Why is it we've surpassed the 1990 temperature record three times since, and by some distance, but can't touch the minima record? Surely as good a chance as we'll get in the next two days?

Thought we would with a minimum of 25C in parts of London and Kent but it fell to 23.5C by the last minute.

 

Food for thought though between 1961 and 1985 I believe there were about six tropical nights. This year alone there have been 16. 

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1 minute ago, qwertyK said:

Thought we would with a minimum of 25C in parts of London and Kent but it fell to 23.5C by the last minute.

 

Food for thought though between 1961 and 1985 I believe there were about six tropical nights. This year alone there have been 16. 

What qualifies for a tropical night?

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Net weather forecast for summer doing preety well, a cyclonic July with westerlies and an anticyclonic August, often dry and warm - still lots of time to go. Also some suggestion of a possible 1995 which so far is coming to fruition, that month though saw dry warm weather holding right throung until the end, and the heat was much more widespread than the current spell.

 

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4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

What qualifies for a tropical night?

Believe its anything over 20C - but I can't think of how we've done it 16 times unless they mean in 16 places its happened

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Just now, damianslaw said:

Net weather forecast for summer doing preety well, a cyclonic July with westerlies and an anticyclonic August, often dry and warm - still lots of time to go. Also some suggestion of a possible 1995 which so far is coming to fruition, that month though saw dry warm weather holding right throung until the end, and the heat was much more widespread than the current spell.

 

Know it's not a great way of predicting future weather patterns esp with climate change now  but didn't 1995-1996 have a really cold winter especially in december 1995?

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3 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

Know it's not a great way of predicting future weather patterns esp with climate change now  but didn't 1995-1996 have a really cold winter especially in december 1995?

Yes it did, September was very cyclonic and wet, followed by a warm dry October, a mildish November then a cold snowy December. Interestingly, there was a marked change in March 95 after a very wet winter, it became very dry with the atlantic blocked, same thing happened mid March this year, however, June 95 brought cool northerlies just like this month, then a very warm end, we had a hot shot but not on the same length as 95 this June. July 95 was very warm and drier than this July but synoptically not far off, both months cyclonic., mmm lots of correlation. Also I think 95-96 came at solar minima.

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Quite a disappointing day here. Reached 24/25C but very cloudy (despite the forecast for a sunny day today) but at least it stayed mainly dry.

 

The next few days here look to be warm, humid and thundery here but little in the way of sunshine.

Edited by East Lancs Rain
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OMG this heat is disgusting.  I walked a mile today and sweat was pouring off me, and the temp indoors is 29c now.   Im feeling uncomfortably hot, my poor 84 yr old mum is really struggling.  Need to be environmentally unfriendly and buy a couple of air con units this winter, cant do this again next year, and cant let my mum suffer this again.  I hope and pray she gets through this. 

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6 hours ago, Nath said:

OMG this heat is disgusting.  I walked a mile today and sweat was pouring off me, and the temp indoors is 29c now.   Im feeling uncomfortably hot, my poor 84 yr old mum is really struggling.  Need to be environmentally unfriendly and buy a couple of air con units this winter, cant do this again next year, and cant let my mum suffer this again.  I hope and pray she gets through this. 

It must be awful in your area, fingers crossed it will have cooled some what by the weekend. Good luck!

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