Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Summer 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Remember the highest temperature is unlikely to be at the 1hr spot, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Heathrow or Kee maxed out 0.5-1c higher than that 1hr spot. We won't know for a little while yet though until all the data is in.

    A max of 36.3 so far though which has to said is pretty close to the range expected (I think Marco from he met said 36.5-37):was most likely. My own guess was around the high 36s low 37s as well but that maybe just a smidge high. We will have to await for when all the data is in from all stations to know.

    I reckon somewhere will nose higher. That 36.3c was showing before the cloud deck moved in, so I’d expect a few points higher when the figures appear.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 4.7k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    OK @damianslaw you've tempted me into it.  Mike's forecast for summer 2020: In my view, the building blocks are already built now given the exceptional spring we have had this year in the UK

    Beautiful noctilucent clouds this evening here in Prague 

    This seems to be a facet of our changing climate - in the 1970s and 1980s, it took exceptional synoptics like those of late June 1976 to get temperatures approaching the mid-30s Celsius, and most heat

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, kold weather said:

    Remember the highest temperature is unlikely to be at the 1hr spot, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Heathrow or Kee maxed out 0.5-1c higher than that 1hr spot. We won't know for a little while yet though until all the data is in.

    A max of 36.3 so far though which has to said is pretty close to the range expected (I think Marco from he met said 36.5-37):was most likely. My own guess was around the high 36s low 37s as well but that maybe just a smidge high. We will have to await for when all the data is in from all stations to know.

    Also hard to ignore that 36.3c is still exceptional even if that is the absolute max. We've been spoiled in the last 5 years haven't we!

    Off course, actual spot max likely to 36.5-37c. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    16 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Well  it's technically a trough that is sharpening and  forming into a developing frontal system (tonight it's far more obvious), agreed the wind shift is rather weak at the moment but it is developing as we speak. 

    Sorry. Not seeing anything like that. The cold front is way out West. The decayed cold front was North and West.

    The trough will of course bring cloudy/showery weather underneath it, but it's not splitting the air masses. The trough will still be across the South tomorrow, but again, it won't be splitting the airmass to warmer one side and cooler the other. That will be further North and West where the separate weakening front will be.

    1510818937_viewimage(1).thumb.png.47c872876eff73ade5f70858d3ac2fe6.png 511415294_viewimage(2).thumb.png.49c46a24a6445927d8a3cbb52efb570d.png viewimage.thumb.png.ceff54b2fc2c93b8ec47e533eb626b56.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

     

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

    36.3’C at Heathrow.

    Iver Water Works 33.9°C at the same time (3pm). The significance? Nobody has seemed to notice that data is available from this other site, but it is barely 3 miles from Heathrow weather station and shows the difference of being semi-rural vs next to carparks, runways and apron.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

    The line of showers passed over us without a drop and the temperature has rocketed back up to 30.3C which is the 6th warmest day for us since 1980.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    1 minute ago, reef said:

    the temperature has rocketed back up to 30.3C which is the 6th warmest day for us since 1980.

    Parts of East Yorkshire warmer than here today! 🤕

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    3 minutes ago, Interitus said:

    Iver Water Works 33.9°C at the same time (3pm). The significance? Nobody has seemed to notice that data is available from this other site, but it is barely 3 miles from Heathrow weather station and shows the difference of being semi-rural vs next to carparks, runways and apron.

    Weather stations are placed according to strict regulations, that reading is within the forecast range, and other sites have recorded similar values (Both Heathrow and Kew Gardens have reached 36.4’C), yet every time we get a high temperature reading people go on about tarmac and runways. 

    Edited by MattStoke
    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North Tyneside
  • Location: North Tyneside

    My station in back garden has just risen by 3C in a matter of 10-15 minutes or so. Still rising now. It is unbearably sticky for me now.

     

    It has been around 23 all day but has suddenly risen.

     

    Now showing 27.1C at 4:33

    27.7 at 4:37

    Stable 27.9 now

    Snapchat-2069728979.jpg

    Edited by GeordieX9v
    update
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    36.4c looks like the top then. Good predictions, probably would have made 37c without the cloud cover. Still puts it as one of the hottest days ever.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    30 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Heathrows dropped back to 35.6C - game over today.

    36c+ is still pretty exceptional. I think it was always a long shot to break the all time record today. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    6 minutes ago, danm said:

    36c+ is still pretty exceptional. I think it was always a long shot to break the all time record today. 

    I didn’t think it would beat last Friday either. Slightly lower 850s as well as a slightly lower starting point gave less time and warmth to crank those last few notches. Still 36.4c is ridiculously hot.

    Edited by mb018538
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    33 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Sorry. Not seeing anything like that. The cold front is way out West. The decayed cold front was North and West.

    The trough will of course bring cloudy/showery weather underneath it, but it's not splitting the air masses. The trough will still be across the South tomorrow, but again, it won't be splitting the airmass to warmer one side and cooler the other. That will be further North and West where the separate weakening front will be.

    1510818937_viewimage(1).thumb.png.47c872876eff73ade5f70858d3ac2fe6.png 511415294_viewimage(2).thumb.png.49c46a24a6445927d8a3cbb52efb570d.png viewimage.thumb.png.ceff54b2fc2c93b8ec47e533eb626b56.png

    Need to look below 850hpa, you can see on the 925mbs a clear difference in the origin of the air post the trough:

    image.thumb.png.1909e1c855cd563f1c63548476e2928d.png

    East of it and you have tropical air source from France, west of it and it's sourced from the Atlantic at the lower levels. That is where the difference is more noticeable and partly why temps dropped as they did as the trough moved on. It becomes more obvious when it's run forward to 00z tonight however.

    image.thumb.png.0497e5436873ef6331cc4b4e740251a1.png

    Where the boundary is is pretty obvious by that point. The trough being in place is ushering in cooler air from the west on its wake and that is why the met office fax charts have a front tomorrow morning at 06z because by then the airmass difference will be clear as day, even if the difference is very subtle. However that process is already underway extending from Dorset/Hampshire NEwards as can be seen in the first wind chart at 925mbs.

    Edit - by tomorrow that trough/front is weakening again and washing out, as you show the warm airmass pushes back across the south on a easterly push.

     

    Edited by kold weather
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Need to look below 850hpa, you can see on the 925mbs a clear difference in the origin of the air post the trough:

    image.thumb.png.1909e1c855cd563f1c63548476e2928d.png

    East of it and you have tropical air source from France, west of it and it's sourced from the Atlantic at the lower levels. That is where the difference is more noticeable and partly why temps dropped as they did as the trough moved on. It becomes more obvious when it's run forward to 00z tonight however.

    image.thumb.png.0497e5436873ef6331cc4b4e740251a1.png

    Where the boundary is is pretty obvious by that point. The trough being in place is ushering in cooler air from the west on its wake and that is why the met office fax charts have a front tomorrow morning at 06z because by then the airmass difference will be clear as day, even if the difference is very subtle. However that process is already underway extending from Dorset/Hampshire NEwards.

     

    image.png

    The FAX output therefore completely contradicts the forecasts the Meto have been churning out this afternoon showing wall to wall sunshine over England tomorrow (and Sunday) thats clearly not going to happen with any sort of trough parked over southern England. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    36 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    I reckon somewhere will nose higher. That 36.3c was showing before the cloud deck moved in, so I’d expect a few points higher when the figures appear.

    It only needs to get to 36.5 C and in whole degrees it becomes 37C. Temperatures are always 'thrown' to the odd number, up or down.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Surprisingly it’s crept up to 36c here too, despite the cloud coming in half an hour ago!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tottenham, N London
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, dry summers
  • Location: Tottenham, N London
    4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    The FAX output therefore completely contradicts the forecasts the Meto have been churning out this afternoon showing wall to wall sunshine over England tomorrow (and Sunday) thats clearly not going to happen with any sort of trough parked over southern England. 

    I was a bit confused when the Met Office posted this.. 

    So is it going to be full sun and 37 or thick cloud with chance of rain!? 🤔

     

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    The FAX output therefore completely contradicts the forecasts the Meto have been churning out this afternoon showing wall to wall sunshine over England tomorrow (and Sunday) thats clearly not going to happen with any sort of trough parked over southern England. 

    I’ve just looked at the latest fax charts - anything frontal is gone early Saturday, and there isn’t anything showing all day Saturday or Sunday in the SE. 564 well to the north. Looks hot to me @Alderc?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    Just now, mb018538 said:

    I’ve just looked at the latest fax charts - anything frontal is gone early Saturday, and there isn’t anything showing all day Saturday or Sunday in the SE. 564 well to the north. Looks hot to me @Alderc?

    Ok cool, its updated then as it was there on the previous output 👍

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    12 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    The FAX output therefore completely contradicts the forecasts the Meto have been churning out this afternoon showing wall to wall sunshine over England tomorrow (and Sunday) thats clearly not going to happen with any sort of trough parked over southern England. 

    Well troughs don't necessarily have to indicate much at all, and it seems what happens is the boundary rotates further north again as had been shown already and decays by Sat morning, so not too much to worry about there.

    Personally though I'm not buying wall to wall sunshine tomorrow, the models suggest a decent amount of cloud.

    Funnily enough your location won't be a bad one on a broadly easterly flow.

    I'd guess somewhere around the downs could do well tomorrow, especially on the southern/western  downslope side of them. 

    It's a tough call though to make at this stage, much harder than today for example.

    Edited by kold weather
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Where the boundary is is pretty obvious by that point. The trough being in place is ushering in cooler air from the west on its wake and that is why the met office fax charts have a front tomorrow morning at 06z because by then the airmass difference will be clear as day, even if the difference is very subtle. However that process is already underway extending from Dorset/Hampshire NEwards.

    The trough is simply bringing cloud/showery outbreaks that will supress the temperature. If there's cooler air moving in behind the trough, then why is it warmer behind it than it is here? You even said this in a post further back. The trough is showing differences in wind direction, but it is not showing a difference in airmass

    Just look at the UKV high res, the airmass stays pretty much the same in Southern counties from now, right through tomorrow. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

     

    52 minutes ago, Interitus said:

    Iver Water Works 33.9°C at the same time (3pm). The significance? Nobody has seemed to notice that data is available from this other site, but it is barely 3 miles from Heathrow weather station and shows the difference of being semi-rural vs next to carparks, runways and apron.


    I was following that last Friday, Northolt was usually lower than Heathrow, and Iver Water Works lower again (and it's closer to Heathrow). 

    I've actually done an Excel document of maxima at Heathrow vs Northolt this summer and Heathrow's average maximum is 0.76C higher so far.

    If anyone knows where you can daily figures for stations such as Iver Water Works or Kew Gardens it might be interesting to compare.

    Not sure if the station enclosure itself fails any siting criteria (though it is bordered immediately to the north by road and carpark tarmac many times wider than the enclosure itself), but in my opinion with the available data, the local environment probably does lead to slightly higher maxima than if it was just grassy fields for example.

    I mean, I can't think of any local topography that would lead to Heathrow so often being the warmest, compared to the other local stations. There's also the size of the place, The length of the airport is longer than the distance between Heathrow and Iver Water Works.

    Anyway, I'm not saying we should/shouldn't have a weather station there, after all if we want to exclude all 'artificial' influences then I suppose we should exclude most of London's stations due to the UHI, especially at night..and if I go on any longer maybe it would be better in a separate topic.

    Edited by Evening thunder
    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...