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CheesepuffScott

Summer 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

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3 hours ago, cheese said:

In Leeds we managed 34C just a week ago during the one-day plume event. Last year we managed 35C during the late July heatwave. In fact, in the 5 years since 2015 we have exceeded 90F more times than the preceding 20 years.

And yet we’ll be lucky to reach 30C even once during this ‘heatwave’. It’s confusing because looking at the charts you’d expect hot weather extensively and yet that’s not the case. Strange.

 

3 hours ago, Steel City Skies said:

I agree with both of you. I find it bizarre that we'll get close to 30C today but struggle to get to 23-24C on Sunday. I can't see how a NE breeze that's got to travel 100 miles inland is going to make that much of a difference.

In this case its down to the speed of the high building over the UK tomorrow after the plume has been shifted away. Normally the plume gets pushed east and then you get pressure building afterwards which gets rid of the uppers whereas this time it all happens quickly enough that the 15C+ upper air is still trapped over the south before the flow turns from the SE again early next week. In essence the north gets more or less what you'd expect from a mid-summer ridge building in behind a cold front but the south never really gets anything pushed away. 

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12 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

No need for that.

If you want to know what Summer is like over here, then just stand under your shower for two months.

Yeah that's a bit much for summer - I couldn't deal with that. Generally I love the summers down here but it's the extremes like this week that's too much. The thought of going somewhere cool right now would be great - but if that's your norm that's not fun.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

Imagine if the temperature record does go (unlikely but still a chance). Took sixteen years for the 2003 to be broken, just literally barely a year for the second 

I'd be surprised if we were to get a record today. Even putting the cloud aside we are now a little behind the pace of Aug 03 and last week for example. The slight thing on todays side is that the heat is actually still coming up from France throughout the day, usually in these set-ups the winds start to shift around 3-4pm as the front comes through. That isn't really happening in the traditional way today as SB said above.

However, very possible that if the mid level cloud steers clear that we could end up in the top 5 hottest days ever (36.8c will do, IMO that is there for the taking) and that would mean 3 out of the top 5 ever hottest days have come in a 13 month period...crazy!

 

Edited by kold weather

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10 hours ago, Don said:

I’m seriously thinking about moving to Scotland.  I work remotely, so it is feasible.  I’m simply not prepared to put up with this kind of heat for the rest of my life if it’s going to become frequent (which is likely!).

What type of job do you do?

I would love to work remotely, and ditch this current security role I have, which means i'm stuck working in the City District(where the heat is). I don't mind London, but the city district of London is a lot warmer, compared to even where I live in Ealing(west london).

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7 hours ago, Damienfire🔥 said:

This has got to be the weirdest summer ever. Short lived potentially record breaking heat surrounded by cool, dull weeks.  

Yes, despite this recent hot period, the summer as a whole for 2020 has been poor for most parts of the country. Plus, many people further away from the London and SE region, have so far had a terrible summer.

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8 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

What type of job do you do?

I would love to work remotely, and ditch this current security role I have, which means i'm stuck working in the City District(where the heat is). I don't mind London, but the city district of London is a lot warmer, compared to even where I live in Ealing(west london).

The heat can be an issue down here in the summer but I wouldn't want to be as far north as Scotland where they never get into the 20s

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14 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I'd be surprised if we were to get a record today. Even putting the cloud aside we are now a little behind the pace of Aug 03 and last week for example. The slight thing on todays side is that the heat is actually still coming up from France throughout the day, usually in these set-ups the winds start to shift around 3-4pm as the front comes through. That isn't really happening in the traditional way today as SB said above.

However, very possible that if the mid level cloud steers clear that we could end up in the top 5 hottest days ever (36.8c will do, IMO that is there for the taking) and that would mean 3 out of the top 5 ever hottest days have come in a 13 month period...crazy!

 

Yep we are off to a slower start this morning. I looked back at some messages I sent last Friday and we were already at 33c by 11am in London. Heathrow showing 26c at 9.50am today.

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Just now, danm said:

Yep we are off to a slower start this morning. I looked back at some messages I sent last Friday and we were already at 33c by 11am in London. Heathrow showing 26c at 9.50am today.

Still higher than the models have for this time.

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Posted (edited)
On 31/07/2020 at 22:22, damianslaw said:

Yes very similar temp wise. 

Top 5 temperatures to look out for for maybe beating today

5th - 36.8C

4th - 37.1C        Cheltenham 03/08/1990

3rd - 37.8C        Set just last week on 31/07/2020 at Heathrow

2nd - 38.5C       Set at Gravesend on 10/08/2003

1st - 38.7C        Set at Cambridge on 25/07/2019

Maybe someone would like to tell me when and where the 36.8C was set

To match last week we need somewhere to be around 33C at 11am - Went on to get 37.8C with this last week

Adjusting for all other figures we get a top 5 all time max if we are at approx 32C at 11am

We could beat 38.7C if we are around 34C at 11am

For the big 40C we would very likely need somewhere to be at around 35.5C at 11am

Edited by SqueakheartLW

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27 minutes ago, Don said:

Trouble is initial forecasts for heat seem to upgrade more and more as the period gets nearer!  Wish it was the same for cold spells during winter!

Even the Beeb webpage had my location at 31c a few days back for today and I'm on the coast and as you say predicted temps do go up within a day or so closer..so on that basis always looks like an event to push the boundaries, time will tell.

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1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Maybe someone would like to tell me when and where the 36.8C was set

Northolt.

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Temperature 3c lower today than at this time last friday. (Se London)

29c vs 26c today.

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10 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

The heat can be an issue down here in the summer but I wouldn't want to be as far north as Scotland where they never get into the 20s

That's the problem isn't it.

Even a poor summer in the south or central region of England, will still get a couple of weeks where temps reach 27c-32c. But, in Scotland, the summers are virtually non existent.

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7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Still higher than the models have for this time.

And it needs to be remembered that unlike normal heatwaves the upper heat is increasing during the afternoon, whereas with normal extreme temps it comes as the cold front comes in and decreases uppers during the afternoon.

In theory we can squeeze more out of the afternoon then in normal one day heat events due to how this is evolving. Whether enough to make up the difference I have big doubts but it will get higher than you'd typically expect given current temperatures as long as cloud stats clear.

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Are we definitely getting storms from this current hot period? I really hope London, and the wider region, will get a decent thunderstorm.

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2 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Are we definitely getting storms from this current hot period? I really hope London, and the wider region, will get a decent thunderstorm.

The beeb is forecasting them for me in South essex on Wednesday and Thursday , just one day of thunder and lightning on Wednesday for London.  

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I feel the summer has been fair here, spring was like summer with exceptionally  warm Sunny weather, June and July been very breezy, temps below normal but still been pleasant, a plume end of June 2 or 3 days what I can remember, plume last day of July which was 1 day event, now this heatwave is longer 4 + days or more, I feel august even September maybe good months this year. One thing here is we have hardly had any rain since March so had a really decent run all in all.

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Gotta love the Mirror https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-forecast-brits-set-22483227

Nowhere has the Met forecasted 39C for today. Looks like they are usign an old picture from last year when 39C was forecast for London. Honestly

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

That's the problem isn't it.

Even a poor summer in the south or central region of England, will still get a couple of weeks where temps reach 27c-32c. But, in Scotland, the summers are virtually non existent.

Yup and same is true for Ireland. It's sad May/June is often the peak of our summer with average monthly sunshine dropping from 196 hrs in May to 156 hours by August. Need a complete reverse of the normal flow to get a half decent summer. I'm in one of the "sunnier" places of the country too so don't know how on earth the north and northwest manage with even less sunshine.

Edited by BruenSryan

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, clark3r said:

I feel the summer has been fair here, spring was like summer with exceptionally  warm Sunny weather, June and July been very breezy, temps below normal but still been pleasant, a plume end of June 2 or 3 days what I can remember, plume last day of July which was 1 day event, now this heatwave is longer 4 + days or more, I feel august even September maybe good months this year. One thing here is we have hardly had any rain since March so had a really decent run all in all.

I think we’ve had great weather since late March. Personally this has been one of my fav summers. I don’t think I’ve worn anything other than shorts in 4 months. I walk most days and only put on waterproofs about 4 times. Even the cooler episodes haven’t been that bad.

We are very fortunate on the whole with the summer weather in the SE (except for the extreme heat) Even in winter I do well off a NE or E. I chat to my brother in Scotland and it’s a very different story 

Edited by Coopsy
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Can't believe for the second Friday on the bounce we are going have the hot weather day ruined by weak convective imports bring light drizzly showers and rain by lunchtime... 

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Here's our full top 20 10:00 BST temperature list.

10:00 BST Wattisham                                       28°c
10:00 BST Jersey Airport                                  28°c
10:00 BST Norwich Weather Centre                28°c
10:00 BST Biggin Hill                                        28°c
10:00 BST Jersey                                             27.2°c
10:00 BST Cambridge                                      27°c
10:00 BST London / Heathrow Airport              27°c
10:00 BST Guernsey Airport                             27°c
10:00 BST Stansted Airport                              27°c
10:00 BST Southampton / Weather Centre      27°c
10:00 BST Bournemouth Airport                      27°c
10:00 BST Manston                                          27°c
10:00 BST London / Gatwick Airport                27°c
10:00 BST Luton Airport                                   27°c
10:00 BST Middle Wallop                                 27°c
10:00 BST Heathrow                                        26.7°c
10:00 BST Kenley                                            26.7°c
10:00 BST Thorney Island                               26.2°c
10:00 BST Herstmonceux West End               26.1°c
10:00 BST Wattisham                                      26.1°c

It's going to take some to beat last week with these values. Unless something strange happens then a minimum 5°c warm up in the next hour looks unlikely so the top 5 maximums could be safe for today at least

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2 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Here's our full top 20 10:00 BST temperature list.

10:00 BST Wattisham                                       28°c
10:00 BST Jersey Airport                                  28°c
10:00 BST Norwich Weather Centre                28°c
10:00 BST Biggin Hill                                        28°c
10:00 BST Jersey                                             27.2°c
10:00 BST Cambridge                                      27°c
10:00 BST London / Heathrow Airport              27°c
10:00 BST Guernsey Airport                             27°c
10:00 BST Stansted Airport                              27°c
10:00 BST Southampton / Weather Centre      27°c
10:00 BST Bournemouth Airport                      27°c
10:00 BST Manston                                          27°c
10:00 BST London / Gatwick Airport                27°c
10:00 BST Luton Airport                                   27°c
10:00 BST Middle Wallop                                 27°c
10:00 BST Heathrow                                        26.7°c
10:00 BST Kenley                                            26.7°c
10:00 BST Thorney Island                               26.2°c
10:00 BST Herstmonceux West End               26.1°c
10:00 BST Wattisham                                      26.1°c

It's going to take some to beat last week with these values. Unless something strange happens then a minimum 5°c warm up in the next hour looks unlikely so the top 5 maximums could be safe for today at least

Seems like this is a more traditional heatwave as in like 2018 (although nowhere near as long), with an extended period of 30+ temps but nothing record breaking, not a one day surge like last week or 2019

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, qwertyK said:

The heat can be an issue down here in the summer but I wouldn't want to be as far north as Scotland where they never get into the 20s

😂😂😂 What a load of nonsense.

Most Summers deliver the 20’s in many parts of Scotland in each month - this Summer has been poor in the West. (Apart from the record June temperature in Prestwick)

Parts of NE/E/SE Scotland have had no trouble recording 20C+ temperatures through July and at the moment - you can’t get much further North than Kinloss for example...20C at least for the next six days. 

12B85DBB-9ADD-4BEB-8B7C-8AB5CCB54C6D.thumb.png.11f40c54f664bcbd7c1d31c95a1499e8.png
 

@Don come to Scotland mate - you are a snow lover after all. 😄

Edited by Mr Frost
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Just now, qwertyK said:

Seems like this is a more traditional heatwave as in like 2018 (although nowhere near as long), with an extended period of 30+ temps but nothing record breaking, not a one day surge like last week or 2019

I'll just wait to see what the 11:00 BST values say then we get our first direct comparison to last week then to see what the highest value is. Needs to be 33C at 11:00 if we stand any chance of getting into the top 5 by 15:00 or 16:00

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