Summer 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[kold weather]

45 minutes ago, Don said:

You could be describing me there when it comes to weather preferences!  Fine summer weather is great, but I'm dreading the heat of the coming days (mostly uncomfortable nights).  I'm also concerned about the frequency of near or record breaking temperatures we keep achieving with relative ease, although it's inevitable with climate change and something we've been told to expect for some time.

I also love cold weather and snow.

However I am very much a chaser of extremes and I think its fair to say this is another example coming up of a real extreme set-up coming up.

MS - I remember being in N.Wales in 2018 near Snowdon and one of the days was really cloudy, drizzly and maxes of about 16c...meanwhile the SE was getting towards 33-34c!

Edited August 5, 2020 by kold weather

[qwertyK]

Obviously got a long way to go yet, but could this August overtake 1995's for being the warmest on record? 

 

[B87]

10 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

Obviously got a long way to go yet, but could this August overtake 1995's for being the warmest on record? 

 

I hope so, August has underperformed relative to July when it comes to record maxes. There have been 4 Julys in London that were hotter than the hottest August (2 of which were over 1c warmer).

[qwertyK]

5 minutes ago, B87 said:

I hope so, August has underperformed relative to July when it comes to record maxes. There have been 4 Julys in London that were hotter than the hottest August (2 of which were over 1c warmer).

I always thought August would be the hottest month this summer, though given the appalling July it wouldn't exactly take a lot to beat it. Though whether it will be as dry as 95 idk as it looks like some kind of tropical weather is coming in next week - 27-29C, just shy of 20C in the night with rain and thunderstorms. 

[B87]

5 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

I always thought August would be the hottest month this summer, though given the appalling July it wouldn't exactly take a lot to beat it. Though whether it will be as dry as 95 idk as it looks like some kind of tropical weather is coming in next week - 27-29C, just shy of 20C in the night with rain and thunderstorms. 

It will be the best month of summer, though that is a low bar.

July 2018, 2006 were 1.3c and 1.2c warmer than August 1995 by average maxes. August should be able to record a 28c month.

[kold weather]

I suspect the 7 days from Friday to Friday may well challenge 2003 in the south as one of the hottest ever weeks. That week was incredible, Heathrow had maxes above 30c for 7 days on the trot and the cooldown day or two in the middle was down to 31-32c!

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, winterfreak said:

Personally, as per my username, Winter is my thing. Love fine weather but the heat progged for the next few days is my idea of awful weather. Frustrating how seemingly simple it is to get hot humid weather here but how utterly knife edge it is to get cold if any real description. Anyway, enjoy the heat if you can

Fair enough but there have only been approximately 5 very warm/hot days so far this summer, and that’s in SE England. Out of 66 days of summer, so far. Other parts of the UK have had less! Which is why I just don’t get all the moaning about hot weather on here.

Edited August 5, 2020 by stainesbloke

[markyo]

Just now, stainesbloke said:

Fair enough but there have only been approximately 5 very warm/hot days so far this summer, and that’s in SE England. Out of 66 days of summer, so far. Other parts of the UK have had less!

In the UK for 2 Winters now in total we haven't had any very cold days, that i suspect is why some folk and i include myself have not much love of these hot conditions! There is a far greater bias to record breaking temps in the UK now for heat and not cold.

[stainesbloke]

1 minute ago, markyo said:

In the UK for 2 Winters now in total we haven't had any very cold days, that i suspect is why some folk and i include myself have not much love of these hot conditions! There is a far greater bias to record breaking temps in the UK now for heat and not cold.

That’s true, winters haven’t seen much cold. Not just the UK, no lying snow here in Prague at all, last winter. Still, winter in the UK isn’t normally very cold. Could be very different, this winter My point still stands, 5 days of very warm in summer weather isn’t a lot

[danm]

2 hours ago, kold weather said:

Crazy how different things are over in the SE of England. Beautiful day and fairly warm with sunshine.

We've had very little rain for a while and the grass is going very dry and yellow again. This next 5-7 days of heat coming up is going to make that even more noticeable 

Yep so true. Has been a glorious sunny day here in London, we sent a picture to the in laws who are in Gloucester and they said it’s been dull and cloudy all day. 

[danm]

 

[SummerShower]

1 hour ago, qwertyK said:

I always thought August would be the hottest month this summer, though given the appalling July it wouldn't exactly take a lot to beat it. Though whether it will be as dry as 95 idk as it looks like some kind of tropical weather is coming in next week - 27-29C, just shy of 20C in the night with rain and thunderstorms. 

More like august 1997 than 1995 maybe on the cards during the next week?

[Puddy Galore]

53 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Fair enough but there have only been approximately 5 very warm/hot days so far this summer, and that’s in SE England. Out of 66 days of summer, so far. Other parts of the UK have had less! Which is why I just don’t get all the moaning about hot weather on here.

 

39 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

That’s true, winters haven’t seen much cold. Not just the UK, no lying snow here in Prague at all, last winter. Still, winter in the UK isn’t normally very cold. Could be very different, this winter My point still stands, 5 days of very warm in summer weather isn’t a lot

I think to be fair, and I really do include myself in this, most people on here are really not begrudging summer sun lovers any periods of nice dry warm sunny weather; after all it is summer so we should expect warm dry sunny weather and as long as it is comfortable it’s no real deal   Certainly from my angle though it is the extremely hot temperatures the country seems to be getting lately I really dislike.  The extreme temperatures being forecast for next week are going to cause me more than physical headache, they are going to cause me quite a lot of worry and trouble.    

Edited August 5, 2020 by Snowycat

[James1979]

3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Another god awful day. Garden is like a swamp and essentially means Summer is over for getting out the tables and chairs onto it.

Miserable. 

Oh to have a drop of that, so sick and tired of relentless dry weather here. Mad that it's so polarised these days. Whatever happened to a bit of everything weather? Yet more ott heat and dry to come. Zzzz. 

[stainesbloke]

20 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

 

I think to be fair, and I really do include myself in this, most people on here are really not begrudging summer sun lovers any periods of nice dry warm sunny weather; after all it is summer so we should expect warm dry sunny weather and as long as it is comfortable it’s no real deal   Certainly from my angle though it is the extremely hot temperatures the country seems to be getting lately I really dislike.  The extreme temperatures being forecast for next week are going to cause me more than physical headache, they are going to cause me quite a lot of worry and trouble.    

Yes, I do get your point, the extreme heat isn’t much fun and is very uncomfortable for most. But it’s one day of extreme heat (Friday) and the other days are very warm, only possibly hot. Which the vast majority of the summer certainly hasn’t been. 

[Arctic Hare]

3 hours ago, kold weather said:

Crazy how different things are over in the SE of England. Beautiful day and fairly warm with sunshine.

We've had very little rain for a while and the grass is going very dry and yellow again. This next 5-7 days of heat coming up is going to make that even more noticeable 

As usual, here in the Midlands we're sort of in the middle. Nothing like SE England, but nothing like the NW either. Moderately warm today (23 °C), nothing special, a bit of sunshine earlier but also an annoying gusty wind, then a gloomy, dull afternoon. I'm not bothered about the likely lack of 30+ temperatures this weekend, though. Especially if it's going to be humid and stormy, mid-20s (occasionally high 20s) is more than enough for me. Would like more sunshine than seems likely, though.

Edited August 5, 2020 by Arctic Hare

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, qwertyK said:

Obviously got a long way to go yet, but could this August overtake 1995's for being the warmest on record? 

 

I doubt it. 
 

I was just outside in the garden, as we are house sitting, and the wind has just picked up. It’s really breezy and feels quite cool. Is there a storm somewhere?

West London and after a day of highs around 26-27c, seems like a disappointment of an evening. 

[Wimbledon88]

5 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I doubt it. 
 

I was just outside in the garden, as we are house sitting, and the wind has just picked up. It’s really breezy and feels quite cool. Is there a storm somewhere?

West London and after a day of highs around 26-27c, seems like a disappointment of an evening. 

True. That's the thing about this summer. Even after very warm /hot days in London the nights have been remarkably cool which is no bad thing imo. 

[Evening thunder]

Seen a fair bit of discussion about max temps today, more in the MOD thread but I think my post is more appropriate to here.

I Must admit, I'd be surprised if we see 37C+ on Friday. 850hpa temps are 17C on GFS & ECM and Last Friday they were 20-21C.
Also, ECM has 950hpa temps of ~26C (windy.com).. last July for example they were 31C.

All recent record/near record temps I have remembered  have had a difference of near 17 or 18C from 850hpa to the surface. Even with a long build-up like 2003.

August 3rd 1990, had a 19C difference with 37.1C reached from 18C 850's.

So I suppose if we see a 19C difference, and 850hpa temps are 18C.. we may get 37C.. though I think 35C's a reasonable bet, maybe 36C.

I've noticed Met Office forecasts for places with weather stations seem to be adjusted a bit higher compared to surroundings.. but Heathrow has a surprisingly high uplift of about 5C in forecast maxima considering surrounding towns such as Staines, Hounslow etc which are forecast 32/33C.

 

[kold weather]

@Evening thunder Something to remember is the 850hpa temperatures are not fixed in stone either, the ARPEGE is a little hotter and has 850hpa temps between 19-20c in the W.London hotspot for example.

Given how well ARPEGE handled the previous heatwave, I've no reason to doubt it. The GFS/ECM could very well be too low and in analysis this heatwave may end up looking very similar to last week.

With that being said I do think the air will be just a touch reduced compared to last week.

My own personal guess is 37.1c at the usual Heathrow hotspot, but if the cloud is a little more advanced, then 34-35c would probably be the lmiit.

Timing will be everything, as per normal.

 

[cheese]

6 hours ago, qwertyK said:

Obviously got a long way to go yet, but could this August overtake 1995's for being the warmest on record? 

 

Unlikely, unless the heat is projected to move north and stay there. Here in Leeds we’re forecast one day of 30C, then back down to low 20s. August 1995 was of course a nationwide affair, not a regional one.

I’d expect this August to be like last year, warm but nothing particularly noteworthy as far as the CET is concerned. 1995 is a looooong way off.

Edited August 5, 2020 by cheese

[Guest]

Awesome start to a heatwave absolute clag-fest this morning, 18/18C with intermittent drizzle (its actually really now), going to take several hours at least before this clears and drizzly all day, then tomorrow cloud also quickly advances from the west. Parts of Cornwall and Devon could end up seeing no sun whatever both today and tomorrow and temps stuck about 18 or 19C. 

[mb018538]

9 hours ago, Evening thunder said:

Seen a fair bit of discussion about max temps today, more in the MOD thread but I think my post is more appropriate to here.

I Must admit, I'd be surprised if we see 37C+ on Friday. 850hpa temps are 17C on GFS & ECM and Last Friday they were 20-21C.
Also, ECM has 950hpa temps of ~26C (windy.com).. last July for example they were 31C.

All recent record/near record temps I have remembered  have had a difference of near 17 or 18C from 850hpa to the surface. Even with a long build-up like 2003.

August 3rd 1990, had a 19C difference with 37.1C reached from 18C 850's.

So I suppose if we see a 19C difference, and 850hpa temps are 18C.. we may get 37C.. though I think 35C's a reasonable bet, maybe 36C.

I've noticed Met Office forecasts for places with weather stations seem to be adjusted a bit higher compared to surroundings.. but Heathrow has a surprisingly high uplift of about 5C in forecast maxima considering surrounding towns such as Staines, Hounslow etc which are forecast 32/33C.

 

Don’t forget the climate has warmed significantly since 1990 as well. It’s just easier to get higher temperatures. Plus France and Spain have bone dry soil at the moment which is heating the air further. 

Marco stated on twitter yesterday that some met office forecast locations now have human input (mainly ones with stations and lots of past data) which could explain this difference.

[Summer Sun]

It looks like the bulk of the prolonged heat will be reserved for the SE

1 day wonder up here in the NE just like last week

[Evening thunder]

10 hours ago, kold weather said:

@Evening thunder Something to remember is the 850hpa temperatures are not fixed in stone either, the ARPEGE is a little hotter and has 850hpa temps between 19-20c in the W.London hotspot for example.

Given how well ARPEGE handled the previous heatwave, I've no reason to doubt it. The GFS/ECM could very well be too low and in analysis this heatwave may end up looking very similar to last week.

With that being said I do think the air will be just a touch reduced compared to last week.

My own personal guess is 37.1c at the usual Heathrow hotspot, but if the cloud is a little more advanced, then 34-35c would probably be the lmiit.

Timing will be everything, as per normal.

 

That's true, if the airmass is slightly hotter, of course the maximum may be slightly higher.

Another thing I forgot to mention, I feel like last Friday's large under-estimate may have in part been due to the models predicting more cloud arriving sooner or slightly faster movement of the plume? (UKV from the day before had modelled elevated showers/storms in southern areas in the afternoon, and on the day the GFS 12z had upped temps to 34C) I also noticed a couple years ago the GFS seemed to under-estimate more in breezy conditions than light winds. Not sure how much that is currently the case but I think there was a reasonable breeze on Friday.

35 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Don’t forget the climate has warmed significantly since 1990 as well. It’s just easier to get higher temperatures. Plus France and Spain have bone dry soil at the moment which is heating the air further. 

Marco stated on twitter yesterday that some met office forecast locations now have human input (mainly ones with stations and lots of past data) which could explain this difference.

Yes but surely that would mean higher 850's as well? We do seem to be seeing more incidences of the 20C isotherm making these shores.

I'm just saying that although 850hpa doesn't always translate easily to the surface, a think a realistic maximum difference to expect in a heatwave is ~18C and I don't think it will be different this time just because.

Happy to eat humble pie though. I'm possibly being a bit pedantic over 1-2C.. I wonder if Saturday could see the highest temp now.. and that makes sense about human input.

Edited August 6, 2020 by Evening thunder