Summer 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[reef]

36 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Parts of East Yorkshire warmer than here today! 

Just peaked at 30.8C so joint 4th warmest day ever and joint warmest August day since 1990.

[mb018538]

8 minutes ago, ThundersnowDays said:

I wonder if with all the cloud the highest minimum record will go tonight?

Latest 12z Arpege has 23/24c as a minimum in the se tonight. Could be very close to the record.

[markyo]

Just walked out off site in London, for brief few minutes 35c felt cool! Last 3hrs in room of over 45c and dripping humidity... the cool didn't last long. What a awful day for working, utterly vile.

[kold weather]

13 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The trough is simply bringing cloud/showery outbreaks that will supress the temperature. If there's cooler air moving in behind the trough, then why is it warmer behind it than it is here? You even said this in a post further back. The trough is showing differences in wind direction, but it is not showing a difference in airmass

Just look at the UKV high res, the airmass stays pretty much the same in Southern counties from now, right through tomorrow. 

Well surely a wind shift is meaning the air at least at 925mbs is no longer being sourced from the same location. Maybe not a change in airmass (though it WAS analysed as such by the met office earlier this morning but decayed into a trough) anymore...but a change in wind direction will almost act the same at the surface anyway and will shift temperatures at the surface as well due to this.

Agreed that the boundary doesn't shift all that much from now onwards, indeed it actually decays again quite noticeably early tomorrow again.  Indeed it somewhat is shunted out of the way and we see the flow at lower levels draw back again from France across the south.

Ps, cool chat though, it's good to get rid of a few cobwebs!

Edited August 7, 2020 by kold weather

[Evening thunder]

I like to use 950/925hpa temps now to better understand potential maxima

GFS 925hpa


Euro4 950hpa


Shows why potential temps are again much lower in Devon than Dorset eastwards, even when 850hpa doesn't show that so much 


Aaand of course that remains the case tomorrow.. and the next day... like all recent notable hot spells....

[kold weather]

12 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

I like to use 950/925hpa temps now to better understand potential maxima

GFS 925hpa


Euro4 950hpa


Shows why potential temps are again much lower in Devon than Dorset eastwards, even when 850hpa doesn't show that so much 


Aaand of course that remains the case tomorrow.. and the next day... like all recent notable hot spells....

Those do indeed show the boundary between the hot stuff and the slightly less hot stuff is at the lower levels,  these difference of 2-3c isn't huge but does make a difference when paired with a slightly cooler air source and the obvious rain/cloud that is present. As you say the boundary is more obvious below 850hpa. Tbh a different airmass as I said was wrong, it's more of a cooler undercut to be fair caused by the wind shift in that trough.

The best difference tomorrow though is that whilst the airmass is similar, the draw of air is from a much better source for heat into places like Dorset, aka from the east. That means whilst the 925mbs may not be all that different, the surface temperature will be warming as it's a land flow rather than an onshore flow. I think you will be ok down there and the weather will probably somewhat similar to the test of the south coast. Hot but with periods of clouds would be my guess.

Edited August 7, 2020 by kold weather

[johnholmes]

25 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well surely a wind shift is meaning the air at least at 925mbs is no longer being sourced from the same location. Maybe not a change in airmass (though it WAS analysed as such by the met office earlier this morning but decayed into a trough) anymore...but a change in wind direction will almost act the same at the surface anyway and will shift temperatures at the surface as well due to this.

Agreed that the boundary doesn't shift all that much from now onwards, indeed it actually decays again quite noticeably early tomorrow again.  Indeed it somewhat is shunted out of the way and we see the flow at lower levels draw back again from France across the south.

Ps, cool chat though, it's good to get rid of a few cobwebs!

A difference between a front and a trough is that on a front the dewpoint will fall, not necessarily so on a trough, indeed quite often it does not

[Evening thunder]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Those do indeed show the boundary between the hot stuff and the slightly less hot stuff is at the lower levels,  these difference of 2-3c isn't huge but does make a difference when paired with a slightly cooler air source and the obvious rain/cloud that is present. As you say the boundary is more obvious below 850hpa. Tbh a different airmass as I said was wrong, it's more of a cooler undercut to be fair caused by the wind shift in that trough.

The best difference tomorrow though is that whilst the airmass is similar, the draw of air is from a much better source for heat into places like Dorset, aka from the east. That means whilst the 925mbs may not be all that different, the surface temperature will be warming as it's a land flow rather than an onshore flow. I think you will be ok down there and the weather will probably somewhat similar to the test of the south coast. Hot but with periods of clouds would be my guess.

Yeah it will defo be very warm-hot here (Met Office forecast 27-28C), though I feel it will be hotter further east as the 950/925hpa temps look 3-5C higher. The Met Office has it into the low 30's in Dorset. 

If things were 50 miles further west we could be challenging records here due to the offshore flow (I think that could be possible for near-south coast locations Dorset eastwards).
Might seem silly me complaining about a few degrees, it's just kind of annoying how the boundary at low levels has been slightly east of here in all the record/near record events of recent years.

Today was a bit unusual in my location in that despite reaching 27C, we had exceedingly light winds all day and no sign of a sea breeze. Usually it's either a sea breeze or an offshore flow strong enough to prevent one.

[mb018538]

 

Which one is it for Norwich? 32c, or 26/27c? Personally I think that top one from Aidan is miles off. NE wind, no chance you’ll see 32c that close to the coast. Bad forecast?

[Djdazzle]

I’d say Sunday may be as hot as Saturday - wind looks more E or SE than NE.

[Man With Beard]

Sorry to be rather imby but this hot spell is now going to turn very interesting for my area on the south coast. Quite often when Heathrow is hitting the temperature heights we're 5-8 degrees lower due to the sea. It's going to be strange being one of the hot spots (potentially) in a spell like this. If it all goes perfectly, it might be the hottest few days since 1976 here. I have cold beers and the garden patio ready!!

[East Lancs Rain]

On 04/08/2020 at 09:51, stainesbloke said:

It’s not pleasant but it saves lives, so it needs to be done, unfortunately. People need to think about it and stop being selfish. Seems to be an issue in the UK, for some reason whereas here, everyone just gets on with it without drama.

It is a well known trait of the British that we love to moan about anything and everything!

[hillbilly]

Although very warm and humid we have seen very little sun today,some to start the day and maybe half hour or so this afternoon,looks like we may get a little more at 7 pm,max 26 deg.Cloudfest!

[East Lancs Rain]

It has become increasingly warm over the last few days here but it's also been very cloudy. It's been that typical warm, cloudy, humid type weather, with strong winds and a fresh feel on Tuesday with some dampness at times but it has become increasingly less damp, less breezy and warmer since then. 

 

However it's been nowhere near as hot as it's been down in the south east, just wish I had a bit more sunshine. Today was forecast for "sunny intervals" but it's been very cloudy all day with just a little bit of late afternoon sunshine. But at least it's warm and dry and very pleasant usable weather - something that has been lacking here so far this summer.

[Sunny76]

7 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

It has become increasingly warm over the last few days here but it's also been very cloudy. It's been that typical warm, cloudy, humid type weather, with strong winds and a fresh feel on Tuesday with some dampness at times but it has become increasingly less damp, less breezy and warmer since then. 

 

However it's been nowhere near as hot as it's been down in the south east, just wish I had a bit more sunshine. Today was forecast for "sunny intervals" but it's been very cloudy all day with just a little bit of late afternoon sunshine. But at least it's warm and dry and very pleasant usable weather - something that has been lacking here so far this summer.

It’s now cloudy in London. We lost the sun by 4.30ish.

[slater]

54 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Which one is it for Norwich? 32c, or 26/27c? Personally I think that top one from Aidan is miles off. NE wind, no chance you’ll see 32c that close to the coast. Bad forecast?

Totally agree, absolutely no chance Norwich will reach 32c tomorrow lucky to scrape 27c with the breeze expected...However Norwich did manage 35c would anyone know if that’s a record?

[slater]

55 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Which one is it for Norwich? 32c, or 26/27c? Personally I think that top one from Aidan is miles off. NE wind, no chance you’ll see 32c that close to the coast. Bad forecast?

Totally agree, absolutely no chance Norwich will reach 32c tomorrow lucky to scrape 27c with the breeze expected...However Norwich did manage 35c would anyone know if that’s a record?

[East Lancs Rain]

13 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

Although very warm and humid we have seen very little sun today,some to start the day and maybe half hour or so this afternoon,looks like we may get a little more at 7 pm,max 26 deg.Cloudfest!

Yeah same here. I woke up early to go to the bathroom this morning and it was partly cloudy then, the sun was just rising but by the time I had got up properly it was cloudy. Then very cloudy until about 5 pm today when the sun came out for a longer period. Yesterday was very cloudy as well and warm with a high of around 22C. Today has reached 24C here according to the iPhone Weather App (no weather station at the moment!) 

 

But at least it has been warm and dry which is the main thing and it's been a damn sight better than what this summer has given us so far - except for a few warm and thundery days in mid June and the heatwave at the end of June. 

 

I'm also glad that we are not enduring the intense heat down in the south east - while it's been less humid down there it's been much much hotter with temps in the mid 30's. Mid 20's is much more comfortable even with fairly high humidity.

 

Currently 23C with 77% humidity.

[Josh Rubio]

Probably going to get shot down for saying this but the only good thing about this type of weather is the potential thundery breakdown at the end of it

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, slater said:

Totally agree, absolutely no chance Norwich will reach 32c tomorrow lucky to scrape 27c with the breeze expected...However Norwich did manage 35c would anyone know if that’s a record?

Here you go: hottest day for... a year!

Roads melt as Norfolk sees new record set for county’s hottest ever day

WWW.EDP24.CO.UK

---

Thursday’s heatwave saw the hottest day ever recorded in Norfolk, with the mercury soaring to 35.8C, forecasters confirmed and police closing the...

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

 

Which one is it for Norwich? 32c, or 26/27c? Personally I think that top one from Aidan is miles off. NE wind, no chance you’ll see 32c that close to the coast. Bad forecast?

Aye, that shows it too, bbc showed cloudy day tomorrow

[Coopsy]

Twice in a week I’ve hit 36oC. Now the clouds rolled in it’s really close. Looking cooler tomorrow for here anyway - I do love a NE wind when it’s too hot.

Hopefully the prize for putting up with this heat is widespread storms 

[DAVID SNOW]

Way off the 40c that some said was possible for today.

For the UK to get that number you would need every single parameter to align perfectly.

That's why 40c has never been 'recorded' in the UK, sure it can be said that cloud scuppered it or a change in wind direction but that's what you have with an island and not with a land locked continental country.

[Mapantz]

I just posted this in my regional thread, but I thought i'd mention it here..

It's currently warmer now than it was at 3pm here. 

[Stabilo19]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

 

Which one is it for Norwich? 32c, or 26/27c? Personally I think that top one from Aidan is miles off. NE wind, no chance you’ll see 32c that close to the coast. Bad forecast?

Hmm that Met Office video forecast shows a bit of cloud with showers over the SE.. and the UKV showing 26°C  for London.. Now that would be a pretty big forecast bust from 37°C to the mid 20s.