Summer 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, danm said:

Thanks! Wasn't doubting we'd hit 35c, just couldn't see it anywhere. 

34.5c from the sounds of things, so was a rounded up.

That was 30 mins ago now so we may now be well into the legitimate 35c range.

Top 5 well within range and whilst the cloud is coming, it's not coming quick enough to stop a 37c now it seems.

Well done to the met office for sticking with it even when the models this morning took an edge of the maxes incorrectly it appears.

[kold weather]

Just now, MattStoke said:

35.8’C at Kew Gardens.

Jeez got to think Heathrow us there as well.

Remember 36.8c gets a top 5 all time temperature.

It's going to fall and be the 3rd top 5 day ever...

Mad...

[Mapantz]

Very disappointing today. Thick cloud now, and possibly rain very soon.

[MattStoke]

36’C at Wisley.

[Captain Shortwave]

Looks like 33-35c is pretty widespread from London up through East Anglia into Norfolk (locally higher). Like last Friday the humidity may very well drop below 20% ahead of the showers if they arrive in this region.

The visibility is superb as well, a proper continental feel.

Edited August 7, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Very disappointing today. Thick cloud now, and possibly rain very soon.

Temps fallen 4c in the last hour. Looking at Radar we going to be back down to 20-22C by 4 or 5pm, major model fail if that occurs......

[Coopsy]

13 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

35.8’C at Kew Gardens.

And with the cloud predicted to move in later in the day it might just be the perfect timing to get a new top 5 temp record and then close to a hottest nighttime temp - if the cloud stays around overnight and is precipless 

[Relativistic]

1 minute ago, Coopsy said:

And with the cloud predicted to move in later in the day it might just be the perfect timing to get a new top 5 temp record and then close to a hottest nighttime temp - if the cloud stays around overnight and is precipless 

Yep, could be a perfect storm for record-high minima.

Edited August 7, 2020 by Relativistic

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

And with the cloud predicted to move in later in the day it might just be the perfect timing to get a new top 5 temp record and then close to a hottest nighttime temp - if the cloud stays around overnight and is precipless 

Its only a max of 60-75mins until the cloud starts reaching south west London.....I don't think its going to happen.....

Edited August 7, 2020 by Guest

[Badgers01]

8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

36’C at Wisley.

just 2 miles up the road from Wisley the diurnal range today is truly continental it was a fresh 14c at dawn this morning...

[Coopsy]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Its only a max of 60-75mins until the cloud starts reaching south west London.....I don't think its going to happen.....

A lot can happen in 75 mins. 3:30-4pm it might nudge to top 5 territory, might not. But it’s the hottest nighttime temp that gets me interested. A 30 year record ‘might’ be pushed under the present conditions. This is what makes weather watching so fascinating for me (as much as I hate the heat) 

Edited August 7, 2020 by Coopsy

[qwertyK]

Hmmm Google thinks Harlow is 37c but met only saying 33

 

Harlow, England Weather Forecast and Conditions - The Weather Channel | Weather.com

WEATHER.COM

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Today’s and tonight’s Harlow, England weather forecast, weather conditions and Doppler radar from The Weather Channel and...

 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Its only a max of 60-75mins until the cloud starts reaching south west London.....I don't think its going to happen.....

The front edge is just reaching me now and it's pretty patchy light stuff to be honest. Struggling to make any real inroads against the stronger subsidence within the region.

I'd say Heathrow and London has another 90 mins before cloud cover takes its toll. To any meaningful degree. By then we are likely to be at 37-38c.

With Kew garden at 35.8c...im near enough 100% certain this enter the top 5 with nearly 2hrs additional warming from that point.

[Guest]

Just now, Coopsy said:

A lot can happen in 75 mins. 3:30-4pm it might nudge to top 5 territory, might not. But it’s the hottest nighttime temp that gets me interested. A 30 year record ‘might’ be pushed under the present conditions. This is what makes weather watching so fascinating for me (as much as I hate the heat) 

Maybe however the models have utterly failed on the precip in south west, I suspect it could aid in cooling things down across the south east tonight. I'm expecting the 12Z's to look very different for tonight and tomorrow compared to their current output. 

[Coopsy]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Maybe however the models have utterly failed on the precip in south west, I suspect it could aid in cooling things down across the south east tonight. I'm expecting the 12Z's to look very different for tonight and tomorrow compared to their current output. 

I agree with you regards the precip as that was my caveat. It might well happen and that’ll scupper any chances. But if it doesn’t.....

Edited August 7, 2020 by Coopsy

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Maybe however the models have utterly failed on the precip in south west, I suspect it could aid in cooling things down across the south east tonight. I'm expecting the 12Z's to look very different for tonight and tomorrow compared to their current output. 

You’ll do well next couple of days though as winds swing to the NE. Onshore flow will give the south coast plenty of heat.

[danm]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

The front edge is just reaching me now and it's pretty patchy light stuff to be honest. Struggling to make any real inroads against the stronger subsidence within the region.

I'd say Heathrow and London has another 90 mins before cloud cover takes its toll. To any meaningful degree. By then we are likely to be at 37-38c.

With Kew garden at 35.8c...im near enough 100% certain this enter the top 5 with nearly 2hrs additional warming from that point.

Yes it also looks like the eastern side of that cloud is being nibbled away and breaking up a little as it pushes east. 

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Maybe however the models have utterly failed on the precip in south west, I suspect it could aid in cooling things down across the south east tonight. I'm expecting the 12Z's to look very different for tonight and tomorrow compared to their current output. 

Quite possible, these things are often nowcast.

I wouldn't be surprised if things are more convectively active tomorrow even in the SE and there are hints from some models that maybe the case. Regardless Monday onwards looks convective in a big way!

What's more interesting though is how the models are still going for 34-36c *with* cloud cover tomorrow. That's a testament to how extremely hot the air is above us right. Whilst I think that's too high if cloud cover is around, who knows.

Many were doubting we'd get to 35c today based on a cool start but myself and Steve said to remember the hit air is still advecting in unlike most heatwave situations with a cold front coming in.

Edited August 7, 2020 by kold weather

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

You’ll do well next couple of days though as winds swing to the NE. Onshore flow will give the south coast plenty of heat.

Maybe but its cloud dependant and AROME, ARPEGE & UKV all have a lot tomorrow. Given today was under estimated its not a promising sign.  

[Mapantz]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

What's more interesting though is how the models are still going for 34-36c *with* cloud cover

That shows that they are bad at handling that.  All of the high resolution models show cloud and 30°C at 4pm for here, but it's already 4°C lower than that and still falling

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

That shows that they are bad at handling that.  All of the high resolution models show cloud and 30°C at 4pm for here, but it's already 4°C lower than that and still falling

yes that is a good point and I suspect those are overdone temperatures if it is really going to be that cloudy.

Only subtle thing to remember mind you you is that we are now going to be under a different air mass than you are over in Dorset as you are now the wrong side of the frontal boundary when it comes to the heat so you would expect temperatures to be falling away because of that to an extent.

[Damienfire?]

It’s actually not that hot today where I am. It’s only 26C. It was forecasted to be 31C at one point

[thunderpants]

Temps struggling here compared to last friday currently at 33.1c compared to a high 35.7c last week, humidity low though at 30%.

[Mapantz]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Only subtle thing to remember mind you you is that we are now going to be under a different air mass than you are over in Dorset

That's not quite true. It's an upper trough, so it's not dividing the air mass, we're all under the same air mass.

[Guest]

The air really isn't all that warm now, only 25.9C here and only the residual warmth from tarmac in my drive keeping my feet warm....