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Summer 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

again remember people we are advecting hot air right through the day today this is not a typical heatwave when it hot air advecation ends around midday due to encroach and cold fronts as we normally see.

so typical values expected from the temperature from this time of day are going to be too low compared to normal because of this hot advection that's happening.

Top 5 requires 36.8c. basin background conditions as long as convection stays clear this should be doable but it might be close.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

I'll just wait to see what the 11:00 BST values say then we get our first direct comparison to last week then to see what the highest value is. Needs to be 33C at 11:00 if we stand any chance of getting into the top 5 by 15:00 or 16:00

Obviously not verified yet but I checked the tempreature at heathrow about ten minutes ago and it was 28C. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

I'll just wait to see what the 11:00 BST values say then we get our first direct comparison to last week then to see what the highest value is. Needs to be 33C at 11:00 if we stand any chance of getting into the top 5 by 15:00 or 16:00

It doesn’t. No two days or setups are the same.

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
12 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:

Yup and same is true for Ireland. It's sad May/June is often the peak of our summer with average monthly sunshine dropping from 196 hrs in May to 156 hours by August. Need a complete reverse of the normal flow to get a half decent summer. I'm in one of the "sunnier" places of the country too so don't know how on earth the north and northwest manage with even less sunshine.

I remember a work trip I took to Dublin in August last year. It was 33c at London City Airport when I left and 18c when I landed in Dublin. 

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

The MO “4cast” they issue on Twitter had 28°C in the London area at 11:00.. slowly rising through the day before jumping around 3 degrees at 4/5PM to 37°C

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Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex

Wait up - 

default_card_315.jpg
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

London 7 day weather forecast including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind, visibility, humidity and UV

According to this overnight minimum is 25C in London - not only would that break the overnight record if true but this is 4C warmer than the overnight temp at heathrow. is this some kind of glitch?

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
3 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

Wait up - 

default_card_315.jpg
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

London 7 day weather forecast including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind, visibility, humidity and UV

According to this overnight minimum is 25C in London - not only would that break the overnight record if true but this is 4C warmer than the overnight temp at heathrow. is this some kind of glitch?

 

 

That sounds about right, central London has much milder nights than Heathrow due to the UHI.

There is often a noticeable difference in temperature in the evenings between central London, and getting off the tube in say Hounslow.

Edited by B87
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
2 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

The MO “4cast” they issue on Twitter had 28°C in the London area at 11:00.. slowly rising through the day before jumping around 3 degrees at 4/5PM to 37°C

And it’s currently >29’C at 11am. What occurred last week is irrelevant to today.

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Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
1 minute ago, B87 said:

That sounds about right, central London has much milder nights than Heathrow due to the UHI.

4C increase though? BBC and google showing 22-23C in central london. 

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Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

BE22CB31-2492-4D1B-A947-5FA7A0874431.thumb.png.e1c5cb0dcf02d00c155c22bb7b853132.png
 

If the models are correct the old record (23.9C August 3 1990 - Brighton) will be dust. 

It will be a horrible night (though I'm well outside of any UHI so it will be 20 max here) but I'm honestly surprises its lasted as long as 30 years. Literally just over 30 years since hten.

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Heathrow not even at 30C yet. Will be lucky to hit 33C today, never mind go for records.

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
3 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Heathrow not even at 30C yet. Will be lucky to hit 33C today, never mind go for records.

I think 35c is achievable. 37c/38c like last Friday may be a stretch today.

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Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
Just now, danm said:

I think 35c is achievable. 37c/38c like last Friday may be a stretch today.

I reckon we will potentially get about 36.5C today tops, but more likely 35.6

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
6 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Heathrow not even at 30C yet. Will be lucky to hit 33C today, never mind go for records.

A fair chance we will be closer to 40 than 33 ?️

No, I'm not saying 40 of course, but 36-37 is really very doable as we are continuing to warm up (ECM and Arprge increase thickness right through to 18z!) And so a late peak seems probable IF cloud cover isn't an issue.

Also, wind subtly shifts in the afternoon and we pull in aid even more directly from France.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
14 minutes ago, kold weather said:

A fair chance we will be closer to 40 than 33 ?️

No, I'm not saying 40 of course, but 36-37 is really very doable as we are continuing to warm up (ECM and Arprge increase thickness right through to 18z!) And so a late peak seems probable IF cloud cover isn't an issue.

Also, wind subtly shifts in the afternoon and we pull in aid even more directly from France.

I think the late-afternoon surge that the Met Office and others are expecting is, as you say, due to a forecast change in wind direction; that's what lifted the temperature to 34.4C at Gravesend so late on on the 13th September 2016. That said, you would expect Kent to "benefit" the most from such synoptics. Will be interesting to see how things play out at Heathrow.

Edited by Relativistic
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Will the London area get to 4/5pm before that massive lump of cloud gets in and spoils things??

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1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Will the London area get to 4/5pm before that massive lump of cloud gets in and spoils things??

Not sure, I'd put an ETA on it of about 3pm, cloud just starting to appear on my southern horizon and I'm in a valley so not long until the sun goes from here. 

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10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Not sure, I'd put an ETA on it of about 3pm, cloud just starting to appear on my southern horizon and I'm in a valley so not long until the sun goes from here. 

A lot of the cloud deck SW of IOW is breaking up as it hits the dry air

look at the last hour on sat 24

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

A lot of the cloud deck SW of IOW is breaking up as it hits the dry air

look at the last hour on sat 24

I respectively disagree, yes the forward facing cloud is getting nibbled away at slightly but the overall size of the clump isn't really changing, it'll be a close call don't really dont see there being much sustained heating in west London beyond 3ish - I guess we'll have to wait a few hours.

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Anyone else think forecasters have handled this spell terribly. They seem to have massively underestimated these decaying fronts. All week they have been saying Friday will be incredible for England away from northwest coasts yet we now have a front in the middle of the country. Is it too much to ask them to pick up on these things the day before it happens?

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I respectively disagree, yes the forward facing cloud is getting nibbled away at slightly but the overall size of the clump isn't really changing, it'll be a close call don't really dont see there being much sustained heating in west London beyond 3ish - I guess we'll have to wait a few hours.

What should happen is the front edge will get eroded as it comes on land. It won't disappear however as it's from the frontal boundary, but it may not be all that significant. 

Still, it probably will put a lid on things eventually and we see the odd storm spark off from it overnight.

Snowy - not really, the models Never went for that sort of heat countrywide,, it was always going to be mainly a SE event due to that frontal boundary.

Heathrow at 31.4c at 12pm, so rough 2c puts us to 35c by 2pm.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Can't believe for the second Friday on the bounce we are going have the hot weather day ruined by weak convective imports bring light drizzly showers and rain by lunchtime... 

At least you are in the area affected by proper heat in the days to come. 

I see Hurn has reached 30C. The heat boundary often seems to be in Dorset these days, even when not explained by sea breeze or anything, just the edge of the hot airmass often happens to set up there. 
Even the Isle of Portland that sticks miles out into the sea was just as warm at 25.5C earlier as anywhere in Devon.

Tomorrow it's into the 30's easily in Dorset but 27C here on Met Office forecasts. ECM does kind of get the real heat further west Sunday/Monday but that remains to be seen, some models are very consistent with it being east of a roughly Dorset to The Wash line every day. GFS just gradually cools off after tomorrow here, no storms either.

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