Summer 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[kold weather]

21 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Usually in long heatwaves like 2018, 1995, 1976 etc it's because of persistent high pressure over the UK. But apart from the CET these types of synoptics don't usually bring record breaking heat - but the heat that it does bring is longer lasting of course. For record breaking heat it's almost always plumes from Iberia/Africa which bring us that like today. But these synoptics don't last long. Already the cooler air is with us. The heat has been shunted away now.

I think what was different today was the timing was a little better than most recent heatwaves. Even the record last year was a little surpressed as light showers/cloud started coming in as early as 1-2pm in the SE where the highest potenial was (hence why Cambridge region got higher in the end).

Today, we got little cloud until after peak heating so unlike 2019 and 2015 heat plumes I think we got right upto the theoretical max we could today with the set-up aloft. With both 19 and 15 I feel there was probably another 0.5-1C to be squeezed out of the set-up.

[Earthshine]

14 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think what was different today was the timing was a little better than most recent heatwaves. Even the record last year was a little surpressed as light showers/cloud started coming in as early as 1-2pm in the SE where the highest potenial was (hence why Cambridge region got higher in the end).

Today, we got little cloud until after peak heating so unlike 2019 and 2015 heat plumes I think we got right upto the theoretical max we could today with the set-up aloft. With both 19 and 15 I feel there was probably another 0.5-1C to be squeezed out of the set-up.

I imagine it's only a matter of time now until we hit 40°C.  The past 20 years have seemed to edge closer and closer.  I'll bet it'll happen by 2030 (and I wouldn't even rule it out happening sooner rather than layer).

[damianslaw]

13 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think what was different today was the timing was a little better than most recent heatwaves. Even the record last year was a little surpressed as light showers/cloud started coming in as early as 1-2pm in the SE where the highest potenial was (hence why Cambridge region got higher in the end).

Today, we got little cloud until after peak heating so unlike 2019 and 2015 heat plumes I think we got right upto the theoretical max we could today with the set-up aloft. With both 19 and 15 I feel there was probably another 0.5-1C to be squeezed out of the set-up.

In another thread I asked what maxes were in N France, Paris area yesterday, low 30s, today on a par with southern England. I would expect mid-high 30s yesterday and this heat pool then coming our way today. Back in 2003 maxed in France widely mid 40s. Just surprised at the ease in which we recorded such high maxes, also last night though warm not exceptionally so, we were not starting from a high base state. 

Something to do with perfectly aligned conditions I imagine, and the absolute peak time of year for maximum heat from a southerly flow.

An odd day 

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

In another thread I asked what maxes were in N France, Paris area yesterday, low 30s, today on a par with southern England. I would expect mid-high 30s yesterday and this heat pool then coming our way today. Back in 2003 maxed in France widely mid 40s. Just surprised at the ease in which we recorded such high maxes, also last night though warm not exceptionally so, we were not starting from a high base state. 

Something to do with perfectly aligned conditions I imagine, and the absolute peak time of year for maximum heat from a southerly flow.

An odd day 

One of the directors at our place has a weather station in Chesham in a notorious frost hollow. It got down to 9.1C and then reached 35.1C during the afternoon. An incredible diurnal range, especially in the summer months.

[damianslaw]

Just now, Nick L said:

One of the directors at our place has a weather station in Chesham in a notorious frost hollow. It got down to 9.1C and then reached 35.1C during the afternoon. An incredible diurnal range, especially in the summer months.

Wow a continental climate. I'm quite perplexed how we managed such warm uppers yesterday off what looks not an exceptional pool of hot air over France. Heat Island effect I wonder, less pollution perhaps - stronger sun. 

[audiotech]

Benson getting to 36.6C is impressive. Looks like it was the hottest place outside the M25. The record setting day in July 2019 Benson got to 37.0C so very close to matching that, which I presume is the location site record.

[Don]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Wow a continental climate. I'm quite perplexed how we managed such warm uppers yesterday off what looks not an exceptional pool of hot air over France. Heat Island effect I wonder, less pollution perhaps - stronger sun. 

Could it be reduced pollution helped enable the exceptional temps today?

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Today was horrid. Walked out for work at about 3pm and it had clouded over and was as humid as I can ever recall. 

Thankfully we will soon be out of peak summer, the sun losing intensity all the time now. In a few weeks time it will feel quite tame compared to how it would at the end of June.

Edited August 1, 2020 by CreweCold

[Don]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Today was horrid. Walked out for work at about 3pm and it had clouded over and was as humid as I can ever recall. 

Thankfully we will soon be out of peak summer, the sun losing intensity all the time now. In a few weeks time it will feel quite tame compared to how it would at the end of June.

Today certainly did not feel like a nice summers day that one would normally associate with heat.  When I went for my evening walk, there was a strange unpleasant atmosphere in the air.  Not feeling particularly great!

[Cheshire Freeze]

49 minutes ago, Don said:

Today certainly did not feel like a nice summers day that one would normally associate with heat.  When I went for my evening walk, there was a strange unpleasant atmosphere in the air.  Not feeling particularly great!

Yep, not very pleasant at all. I walked to work and it made me feel sick.

Thankfully, days like this are numbered and the nights are lengthening at pace now too.

Edited August 1, 2020 by CreweCold

[Weather-history]

Cloudy skies to start of August here. There was more sunshine here during May than June and July combined.  

[stainesbloke]

Looks like some more warmth to come next week, across much of the UK and the continent (though not silly heat like yesterday). Are we finally going to get a much deserved warm August? Hopefully so, after the dross served up so far, this ‘summer’. 

[mb018538]

8 hours ago, kold weather said:

I think what was different today was the timing was a little better than most recent heatwaves. Even the record last year was a little surpressed as light showers/cloud started coming in as early as 1-2pm in the SE where the highest potenial was (hence why Cambridge region got higher in the end).

Today, we got little cloud until after peak heating so unlike 2019 and 2015 heat plumes I think we got right upto the theoretical max we could today with the set-up aloft. With both 19 and 15 I feel there was probably another 0.5-1C to be squeezed out of the set-up.

Last year would have seen 39.something without the cloud in the London area, I’m 100% sure of that! If it made 38.7c here, and London is nearly always a touch higher, then 39c would have been inevitable. That we nearly made 38c out of nowhere yesterday was perhaps a sign of things to come in the future. 40c is inevitable one day. We will see a plume of 22-25c 850s over the UK for a day and it will happen. Almost certainly in my lifetime.

[Evening thunder]

This study from the Met Office has a graph which suggests we've reached about a 1 in 100 chance of 40C in the current climate (so may well happen in our lifetimes even if global warming paused), which of course increases going forward.



https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2020/chances-of-40c-days-in-the-uk-increasing-due-to-human-influence

 

[markyo]

ttps://hwww.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53618473

A very worrying trend is growing,temp records falling globally, Summer could in some of our lifetimes be a season that would be very hard to cope with

[karyo]

It felt very unpleasant here yesterday. I live in the city centre so all the concrete heated up and the traffic pollution made things worse. On top of that, as it often happens when we get hot weather, there were gatherings of people in the streets getting drunk loud and antisocial. This continued well into the night. Needless to say there was no social distancing on the streets.

Antisocial behaviour definitely goes up with the rising temperature.

[Evening thunder]

An IMBY post here.

Yesterday was a very warm and humid day, Tmax 27.2C in my garden (may be 0.5-1C over). Exeter Airport saw 28.2C.

For interest's sake, it would be nice if one of these 'record breaking' plumes would affect the SW more.

Sometimes we look sort of included on 850hpa temps.. but on 950hpa temps, we're not.. yesterday 15:00 (4pm BST):

Down into the teens though we had 26C at 950mb in South Devon in the early hours.

Last July was even more stark, 15:00 and 21:00

Look at that for luck.. Also the fact that at 9pm 950hpa temps >30C had travelled a few hundred miles over the N Sea, shows the English Channel wouldn't have that much effect, it's just the plumes have mainly been east of here.

It was the same story again in 2015.

Of course being a few miles from the south coast, I may not get that much hotter.. but the 'modified layer' would be shallow so maybe it would heat up quicker. Certainly further inland would be hotter, it's been a while since we've seen something like 1990's 35C in North Devon.

Interestingly Exeter Airport's temperature records (since 1973) go:

1976: 33.5C
1990: 32.4C
1983: 32.2C
2003: 31C (only a rounded figure available)
2013: 30.8C
2018: 30.6C

A few years ago I put a trendline over the highest maxima for all years, and there was actually was a downward trend. 
Seems in contrast to the SE, parts of the SW are actually overdue notable heat? A trend to plumes favouring the SE doesn't favour here.

Edited August 1, 2020 by Evening thunder

[Gordon Webb]

in my opinion having weather like this at this time of year is redundant , the nights are beginning to draw in now and sundown in London by next weekend is 8.35pm , even earlier further SE so those who want to spend their evenings in the sun will be out of luck , this type of weather would have been more useful in second Half June , First Half July where people could enjoy it , most on here probably will still think it's great and will enjoy but I won't be one of them

I'm pretty sure my opinion on this is in the minority ie ME so I'll say no more on it

[Polar Bears in Doncaster]

Incredible weather yesterday (Friday) - the sudden heat spike and back down today. The jet stream must be compressing the extreme hot weather on the continent and every now and then it releases it on to the UK.

[Froze were the Days]

2 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Looks like some more warmth to come next week, across much of the UK and the continent (though not silly heat like yesterday). Are we finally going to get a much deserved warm August? Hopefully so, after the dross served up so far, this ‘summer’. 

Not sure about that (maybe talking about your native Czechoslovakia)?...by next weekend could be looking at similar temps in the south and possibly for longer than a day, not sure that this summer has been that bad. Again certainly if you live in the south east, my lawn is parched and haven't cut it for a good number of weeks, yes cloudier and somewhat cooler but not sure it equates to 'dross' what does that make 2012 and 2007?...if so it shows just how much our summers have changed. 

Edited August 1, 2020 by Froze were the Days

[SqueakheartLW]

13 hours ago, Don said:

July 2020 has been a back to front July 2015.  A good chance it will have the same CET of 15.9C, too!

After such a cool and dismal July temperature wise this month doesn't deserve to get a CET of 16.0C or higher but both the 30th and especially the 31st could be enough to squeeze out a 16 CET month and could deny us a cooler than average month for the first time this year based on the readings on the CET website. This is where the CET stands provisional to 30th July 2020

Month          CET          Anomaly          Notes

January       6.4            +2.6

February     6.3             +2.5

March          6.7            +1.0

April            10.4           +2.5

May             12.5           +1.3

June            15.3           +1.2

July             15.8           -0.2                 provisional, to the 30th

At one point that July CET was below June 2020's and it was looking for a while like we was going to get a cooler July than June but that is certainly off now and with the heat to end the month then a 16 CET is now looking very likely

Just hope that the trend of 2015 doesn't continue as we all know what happened to the CET come December 2015

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, markyo said:

ttps://hwww.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53618473

A very worrying trend is growing,temp records falling globally, Summer could in some of our lifetimes be a season that would be very hard to cope with

I wish we had more summers like 2018 rather than generally poor ones with occasional ridiculous heat spikes lol. The heat was much more prolonged and mostly much drier. A few interruptions for storms/rain ... perfect.

[BruenSryan]

36 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

After such a cool and dismal July temperature wise this month doesn't deserve to get a CET of 16.0C or higher but both the 30th and especially the 31st could be enough to squeeze out a 16 CET month and could deny us a cooler than average month for the first time this year based on the readings on the CET website. This is where the CET stands provisional to 30th July 2020

Month          CET          Anomaly          Notes

January       6.4            +2.6

February     6.3             +2.5

March          6.7            +1.0

April            10.4           +2.5

May             12.5           +1.3

June            15.3           +1.2

July             15.8           -0.2                 provisional, to the 30th

At one point that July CET was below June 2020's and it was looking for a while like we was going to get a cooler July than June but that is certainly off now and with the heat to end the month then a 16 CET is now looking very likely

Just hope that the trend of 2015 doesn't continue as we all know what happened to the CET come December 2015

July CET was confirmed at 15.7C. 

[Captain Shortwave]

31 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I wish we had more summers like 2018 rather than generally poor ones with occasional ridiculous heat spikes lol. The heat was much more prolonged and mostly much drier. A few interruptions for storms/rain ... perfect.

I can agree with that, I would add July 2006 and 2013 to absolutely stunning months. However living in Peterborough now July 2018 stands out as the high bar living relatively inland compared to the Gt Yarmouth prior to that.

It is hard to dismiss the fact we have seen temperatures over 35c reaches three years on the bounce and 100f hit two years in a row. Has the U.K. (Especially Eastern areas) simply rolled a favourable set of dice recently to deliver these highs where previously we simply saw the heat graze the south east, or whether there is something more significant happening. 

[Stabilo19]

The downside of 37°C days are 30°C bedroom nights. About as bad as it gets.. 

Not really looking forward to next weekend, more unusable heat for this region.