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CheesepuffScott

Summer 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

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Posted (edited)

It is April, we are still in spring and weather is starting to show signs of warming up over the next couple of weeks, but in lieu of current affairs across the globe, many will be thinking of the summer ahead. I know some people have already, me included, dropped their predictions in the 'Predictions for 2020' thread but now... What does everybody think (or hope) the summer holds for us, in terms of being warm, average, or cool.. sunnier or cloudier than average... wetter or drier... 

My mindset lies on: Hi / Lo / Sun / Rain (for London)

June: 21.0C / 11.8C / 166hrs / 17mm... A rather boring month with a lot of cloud, nothing notably warm and just one day of 30°C... very dry too, similar to June 2013

July: 23.2C / 14.6C / 208hrs / 61mm... Plenty of pleasant days in the low - mid 20s, 2 or 3 day plume event mid month.. think we will see a tropical influence afterwards with a very active Atlantic hurricane season with lots of moisture and rainfall giving most of the month's rainfall over the course of a couple of days.. gradually settling down for last days of the month... similar to July 2015 statistics wise

August: 24.6C / 15.5C / 249hrs / 33mm... Best month of summer. Recurring south / south easterlies throughout the month with lots of thundery potential... very sunny and most of the rain exclusively from thunderstorms..

 

Edited by reef

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My hopes are for a summer that is a bit warmer than average, quite humid and thunder-prone. Couldn't care less about whether it reached 30 or not or anything like that, just want consistent mild/warm temperatures and a lot of convective activity.

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Posted (edited)

Thread reopened. Please continue. ?

 

Edited by reef
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Posted (edited)

My current amended prediction (differing from my post in the 2020 predictions thread). Stats for London.

June 2020

Temperature: 22.5c/12.9c

Rainfall: 40mm on 5 days

Sunshine: 190 hours

Warmest day: 31c

 

July 2020

Temperature: 22.1c/13.0c

Rainfall: 80mm on 12 days

Sunshine: 160 hours

Warmest day: 29c

 

August 2020

Temperature: 21.5c/13.1c

Rainfall: 120mm on 18 days

Sunshine: 120 hours

Warmest day: 26c

 

September 2020

Temperature: 21.5c/12.0c

Rainfall: 10mm on 3 days

Sunshine: 160 hours

Warmest day: 28c

 

An absolutely awful summer on the cards, extremely cloudy in all 3 months, very wet and cool. June with the best of the weather, but even then it won't be anything special. September will be better than August, which will keep up its dreadful 15 year run of failing to reach 205 hours of sun.

Edited by B87

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I think a poor summer is on the cards.

This will also set up the chance of a much colder winter for 20/21, but that’s another story.

June will be mixed, with warm and hot spells in between a few cooler days with humid and thundery periods. 
 

July will be a stinker and the poorest summer month. Long periods of cloudy cool and humid weather days. More thunderstorms breaking out on regular occasions over the London and south of England. 
 

August will be the best month of the summer, being slightly sunnier and the sunniest since 2016, with the hottest day of the year being recorded. It won’t hit higher than 30-32c for a more than a couple of days. 
 

Overall, I’m predicting a poor summer, with cooler temps, but also a higher frequency in thunderstorms, some of them will be severe. 
 

 

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18 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Another person generalising the conditions... in your back yard, it may have been.

Here:

July had above average sunshine hours, way above average temps and below average rainfall.

August saw pretty much average sunshine hours, above average temps and average rainfall. 

The max temps didn't get below 20°C from June 22nd until August 13th. And, only two days in August didn't make it above 20°C
Apart from the first couple of weeks in June, the rest of the Summer, here, was a cracker.

Anyway, this is the Spring thread. We should be posting this in the Summer thread.

You didn’t pay attention did you. 
 

I mentioned the fact there were quite a lot of cloudy and dull periods, which made it feel more like autumn at times.

Just because it appeared warmer, still doesn’t mean the actual weather was that good. People seem to define good summers with warmer temps, which isn’t always the case if you are having to tolerate day after day of cloudy miserable weather, even if it is 21c and plus. It’s hardly summery. 
 

London has a disappointing summer last year. 

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7 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

You didn’t pay attention did you. 
 

I mentioned the fact there were quite a lot of cloudy and dull periods, which made it feel more like autumn at times.

Just because it appeared warmer, still doesn’t mean the actual weather was that good. People seem to define good summers with warmer temps, which isn’t always the case if you are having to tolerate day after day of cloudy miserable weather, even if it is 21c and plus. It’s hardly summery. 
 

London has a disappointing summer last year. 

I paid perfect attention. You're in London, I am not.
Too many posts trying to conclude that a season was poor because it was in their back yard.

It WAS warmer, and the weather WAS good.

As I said in my previous post, July saw above average sunshine hours and August saw average sunshine hours and temps were above average in both months.

I suspect you just go by memory rather than actually logging daily weather values? ?

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Regionally, it was the 12th wettest summer on record, the summer of 2019 and these records go back to 1873. Rainfall wise, it was a complete contrast to the previous summer. Remember the Whaley Bridge dam threatened to break and the town had to be evacuated? There were some really prolonged periods of rain. 

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We were one of the few lucky areas last summer to be drier than average, though only just:

image.thumb.png.39ebc9c15a2ab8c4ac3367416eb8513a.png

For us it was a warmer, sunnier and drier than average summer; the second in a row. As the chart shows though, away from my area, East Anglia and a few select areas it was pretty wet indeed.

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I would simply be happy to see some sort of actual thunderstorm this year.

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Summer index for London since 2007. 

2007: 244

2008: 253

2009: 277

2010: 279

2011: 247

2012: 233

2013: 311

2014: 293

2015: 276

2016: 271

2017: 287

2018: 344

2019: 293

 

That would suggest that 2019 was quite good in recent years. 2012 was worse than 2007, though August 2012 was the best summer month from either of those years.

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for my location..it cant be as bad as last year surely..that was the coldest and wettest since 1996 and one of the worst in the last 50 years..if la nina kicks in i suspect that June will be relatively unsettled but things will become warmer and much drier as we head into July..August in la nina summers tend to very dry and sunny as do Septembers

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Dear summer 2020, please know that I am only using you to get to my true love which is autumn

Sorry... Ok, and hello everyone, and here are my predictions for summer 2020. :oldsmile:
Well I say predictions... More like pure guess work and what I would like to happen! :oldlaugh:

So lets start with what I would like to happen... I would like to see a very plumey and thundery summer this year. If that means putting up with lots of hot, sticky and humid weather, the sort where you struggle to sleep, to have thunderstorms every other day, then so be it. ☀️?️?️⛈️:oldgrin:

What I actually think will happen... I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a summer similar to last year (with or without a record breaking hot spell), although having said that, this current sunny spell in April is giving me nightmares about the washout summer of 2007, and on that point alone we can't rule out a complete washout of a season.

What will actually happen? ... Only time will tell. :unknw:
 

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7 hours ago, B87 said:

Summer index for London since 2007. 

2007: 244

2008: 253

2009: 277

2010: 279

2011: 247

2012: 233

2013: 311

2014: 293

2015: 276

2016: 271

2017: 287

2018: 344

2019: 293

 

That would suggest that 2019 was quite good in recent years. 2012 was worse than 2007, though August 2012 was the best summer month from either of those years.

August was also the saviour in 2007. Much much drier and a lot more sunshine (not hard), just disappointingly cool.

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A few forecasts I’ve seen have mentioned La Niña may lead to a poor summer, especially the back half.

I’m obviously hoping for a good summer with plenty of sunshine and warmth as I enjoy that. As long as it’s not a total washout I’ll be happy enough, summers like 2018 are the exception rather than the norm, and you have to be prepared for a few crud ones in the UK. It’s just par for the course.

Im not expecting a great summer myself. Let’s see.

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Posted (edited)

wouldn't  be  it typical if  the weather is great the whole time were in lock down only for it bad  Again when we come if its lifted for summer . oh incidentally i think this summer will be very mixed to poor.

Edited by Joseph Hudson

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A 1981 style summer with a cooler June and July, warmer sunnier August, with thunderstorms mixed in.

Leading us to a very cold December.

There you go, a repeat of 1981 lol. 

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Posted (edited)

What do I hope to happen this summer?

A very thundery year. That's it.

I very much look forward to the overnight storms though, I was drooling at the 26-27 May 2018 storm thread last night ?

Edited by Zak M
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13 minutes ago, Zak M said:

What do I hope to happen this summer?

A very thundery year. That's it.

I very much look forward to the overnight storms though, I was drooling at the 26-27 May 2018 storm thread last night ?

Yes that was a humdinger of a storm, and if memory serves me well, it was the start of a week of thunderstorms on and off. 
 

It was hot, around 27-28c for the past couple of days, but the dry heat which usually happens in May, gave way to hot and humid conditions on the Saturday. That night around 10pm, violent storms broke out over London, and we had frequent flashes for about 1 hour, and very loud thunder with torrential rain and a strong gust. 
 

It was pretty violent and one of the most memorable for quite some time. 
 

The Sunday was warm and humid, then bank holiday Monday produced some more distant thunderstorms in the late afternoon, and Tuesday was a very wet day with thunderstorms during the afternoon.

All in all, it was quite a thundery period od weather for the London area.

Granted the rest of summer 2018 was quiet, apart from another local storm in July on a Friday late afternoon.

2019 was pants for storms. 

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Yes just like when they announce a hosepipe ban and the heavens open.. this dry spell has coincided precisely with the lockdown period.. mmm...

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8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes just like when they announce a hosepipe ban and the heavens open.. this dry spell has coincided precisely with the lockdown period.. mmm...

The poor summer will arrive as soon as we all go back to work in June. 
 

Mark my words it’s happening.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, MP-R said:

August was also the saviour in 2007. Much much drier and a lot more sunshine (not hard), just disappointingly cool.

August 2007 was very cool (21.5c) and had slightly below average sunshine.

August 2012 had average temps (23.5c) and slightly below average sunshine. It was also followed up by a warm and sunny September, which didn't happen in 2007.

Edited by B87

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7 minutes ago, B87 said:

August 2007 was very cool (21.5c) and had slightly below average sunshine.

August 2012 had average temps (23.5c) and slightly below average sunshine. It was also followed up by a warm and sunny September, which didn't happen in 2007.

... but most importantly, saw an end to the three month washout that had come before, and was considerably sunnier than July.

September 2007 was a tad warmer than 2012 here. In fact, after the first 10 days, 2012 was well below average here, particularly towards the latter third. Also very very wet from midmonth onwards. It was really only the first full week of the month that resembled anything summery.

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September 2012 here only recorded 15mm of rain, and 180 hours of sun.

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Wow that's pretty impressive given the synoptics. 158.3mm and 132 hours of sun for here. 90.5mm of that came on the 24th alone during Child of Nadine, and remains the wettest day I've ever recorded.

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