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2020 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Poll: March


Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extent Poll: March 2020  

22 members have voted

  1. 1. What will the 2020 NSIDC daily sea ice extent minimum be this year? Options are in millions of km2

    • >7.0
      0
    • 6.75 to 7.0 (80s average)
      0
    • 6.5 to 6.75
      0
    • 6.25 to 6.5 (90s average)
      0
    • 6.0 to 6.25
      0
    • 5.75 to 6.0
    • 5.5 to 5.75
      0
    • 5.25 to 5.5 (00s average)
      0
    • 5.0 to 5.25
    • 4.75 to 5.0
    • 4.5 to 4.75
    • 4.25 to 4.5 (10s average)
    • 4.0 to 4.25 (2007)
    • 3.75 to 4.0
    • 3.5 to 3.75
    • 3.25 to 3.5 (2012)
      0
    • 3.0 to 3.25
    • 2.75 to 3.0
      0
    • 2.5 to 2.75
    • 2.25 to 2.5
      0
    • 2.0 to 2.25
      0
    • 1.75 to 2.0
      0
    • 1.5 to 1.75
      0
    • 1.25 to 1.5
      0
    • 1.0 to 1.25
      0
    • <1.0

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It appears certain that we've passed the maximum this year, so time for a sea ice minimum poll. I'll try to post a new poll each month to track how opinions about this years minimum change.

The data will be based on the NSIDC extent measures. They provide excel spreadsheets here that contain all of their daily data. Below are the values for the last 10 minima, in millions of km2

image.png.f5571f0538f96495c4159298a40781f2.png

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31 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

It appears certain that we've passed the maximum this year, so time for a sea ice minimum poll. I'll try to post a new poll each month to track how opinions about this years minimum change.

The data will be based on the NSIDC extent measures. They provide excel spreadsheets here that contain all of their daily data. Below are the values for the last 10 minima, in millions of km2

image.png.f5571f0538f96495c4159298a40781f2.png

Voted 4.0 to 4.25 million, as usual it depends on the weather and how much ice can survive in the East Siberian Sea in particular. Last year this ice melted very quickly in July after a hot June in that region and the ice there at the moment does not look great at the moment in respect of the lack of fast ice and that it's already been breaking up even at this stage. 

I don't think we will see an ice free north pole this year but we could see the open water stretch extending quite far up around the Laptev sea area like it did in 2014. All ifs and buts though at this stage. 

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I think the drop out of pollution from asia augmented by the drop off in air travel might lead us to a surprise low this year as land snow cover crashes as augmented temps impact the coastal regions around the basin?

I worry that both the mid latitudes and the Arctic Basin will see some extreme impacts driven by a number of competing factors (low solar/warm winter/high export from Fram etc) all augmented by the 'rebound' that cutting out the levels of 'Dimming' we normally see across our hemisphere?

As for 'soot'? Soot will continue to accumulate on ice surfaces even as the ice melts so lowering Albedo day after day so 'milking' the incoming solar ever more leading to a more rapid melt out?

Should the permafrost region  see early warmth then the drying of the top layer leaves it open to wildfire which , in some cases, heads into the dead vegetation itself keeping the fire going underground.

I know we have other things taking up our attention at the moment but we should not forget the 'slow Motion' catastrophe that is climate change/shift..... one tipping point too many crossed and we enter a climate cascade that could bring some elements of change up to the speed of Covid-19's impacts!!

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12 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I think the drop out of pollution from asia augmented by the drop off in air travel might lead us to a surprise low this year as land snow cover crashes as augmented temps impact the coastal regions around the basin?

I know we have other things taking up our attention at the moment but we should not forget the 'slow Motion' catastrophe that is climate change/shift..... one tipping point too many crossed and we enter a climate cascade that could bring some elements of change up to the speed of Covid-19's impacts!!

So, in a nutshell we are all doomed one way or another!  Happy days! ?

Edited by Don
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1 hour ago, Don said:

So, in a nutshell we are all doomed one way or another!  Happy days! ?

Sorry to break it to you Don but no one gets out of any of this alive?

It's a one way trip so you'd better make the most of it!

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1 hour ago, Don said:

So, in a nutshell we are all doomed one way or another!  Happy days! ?

i don't listen to the doom mongers..the arctic has been touted as being ice free in short order on numerous occasions in the last 20 years..but it seems to have been pretty consistent in ice levels in both winter and summer the last 15 years..so i'm saying minimum will be around the 2010s average again

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I've been optimistic and gone with 5.0 to 5.25m sq km. If we cant manage that in a year when the winter had a +AO from start to finish and all the cold bottled up there then we really are in a dire situation!

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15 minutes ago, reef said:

I've been optimistic and gone with 5.0 to 5.25m sq km. If we cant manage that in a year when the winter had a +AO from start to finish and all the cold bottled up there then we really are in a dire situation!

Interestingly I think one of the recent low years (2012?) Started from quite a high base at the end of winter and obviously went very low. Doesn't mean much if summer for example goes very -ve AO/NAO and huge heat gets pumped up.

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In contrast I've been quite pessimistic, going for 3.5-3.75, just ahead of 2012.  My main reasoning relates to the low snow cover over Eurasia following a very mild winter and the high levels of sea ice export, which contributed to the relatively high winter sea ice extent but may make the ice more vulnerable to melting later in the season.  I also note that the two lowest September minimum extent years in the 1990s (1990, 1995) both followed strongly +ve NAO winters, as did 2007 (though not 2012).  Of course a lot depends on the synoptics that we get during the upcoming summer, but I have a nagging feeling that 2020 might run 2012 close.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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6 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Sorry to break it to you Don but no one gets out of any of this alive?

It's a one way trip so you'd better make the most of it!

Hmm, not quite sure how to take that comment?!  Also, I don’t think that’s a very nice to thing to say, especially under the current circumstances when most of us are already feeling anxious and down!

Edited by Don
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11 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

In contrast I've been quite pessimistic, going for 3.5-3.75, just ahead of 2012.  My main reasoning relates to the low snow cover over Eurasia following a very mild winter and the high levels of sea ice export, which contributed to the relatively high winter sea ice extent but may make the ice more vulnerable to melting later in the season.  I also note that the two lowest September minimum extent years in the 1990s (1990, 1995) both followed strongly +ve NAO winters, as did 2007 (though not 2012).  Of course a lot depends on the synoptics that we get during the upcoming summer, but I have a nagging feeling that 2020 might run 2012 close.

My thinking was the same as yours, Ian; though I went for 4.00-4.25...An early Continental warm-up, followed by strong WAA, could put immense pressure on the Eurasian side...??

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15 hours ago, kold weather said:

Interestingly I think one of the recent low years (2012?) Started from quite a high base at the end of winter and obviously went very low.

I think you’re correct there with it starting to crash in May?

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18 hours ago, reef said:

I've been optimistic and gone with 5.0 to 5.25m sq km. If we cant manage that in a year when the winter had a +AO from start to finish and all the cold bottled up there then we really are in a dire situation!

However the catch of positive AO is high export so all that ice which does thicken and gets very cold leaves through fram Stright, February and March has been very strong in that aspect. Also there is a trend a positive AO tends to lead to lower ice extent in summer for this reason. 

The best conditions for Arctic ice in winter is high pressure but only a basin high so not huge warm ridges from the Pacific or the Atlantic which brings alot of warmth in from lower latitudes. Also high pressure tends to lead to thicker and more fast ice on the Siberian side of the basin, there is not much of that this year because of the constant winds blowing in from the landmasses and some that has formed has already been broken off. Unless the winds switch direction during April and May we may see an early melt out here like we did in 2017.

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I have found some information that COVID-19 will have a big silver lining for the Arctic sea ice.  Due to hitherto unknown feedbacks relating to the recent low pollution levels the Arctic sea ice will make a quick recovery and will prove unusually slow to melt this summer, resulting in a minimum close to 6.0, about the same as we got in 1995.

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55 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

I have found some information that COVID-19 will have a big silver lining for the Arctic sea ice.  Due to hitherto unknown feedbacks relating to the recent low pollution levels the Arctic sea ice will make a quick recovery and will prove unusually slow to melt this summer, resulting in a minimum close to 6.0, about the same as we got in 1995.

Where did you find this?
On the one hand there may be a reduction in black carbon, increasing the albedo of the snow and ice, making it more resistant to melt. On the the other hand there could be additional warming from the lack of anthropogenic aerosols.

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Lack of pollution from the industrial shutdown and drop off in air travel will lead to clearer skies so warmer surface temps meaning drier top layer of permafrost and so far more flammable?

One strike of the 'ever more common' high latitude CG's and away we go!

As we saw over winter in mid lats when the arctic air is pegged in the basin (and so not 'polar Plunging' and producing snowy 'spectacles' for deniers to comment on/take into the House of Rep's?) we are appreciably hotter with many daily max temp records falling (over all three of the 'Winter' months?).

I see no reason for this trajectory to suddenly be halted esp. with the High Pressure propensity we appear to be seeing in our location?

So far as the ice in the basin is concerned is it not predominantly FY ice and so as 'salty' as ice can be (i.e. and easier melt than 'aged' ice?)?

Is the ice not thin and fragmented already? (meaning the amount of surface area to 'mass' favours faster melt out?)

Are we not seeing ice transported at enhanced speeds due to its 'distribution of smaller floes'?

IMHO Covid-19 will do nothing but augment our AGW woes this summer by primarily reducing Global dimming dramatically over the period of the Global industrial lockdown/air traffic grounding

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Sadly, it was an April Fool's prank... my earlier post presenting my arguments for 3.5-3.75 still stands, even with the recent reductions in air pollution.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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10 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Sadly, it was an April Fool's prank... my earlier post presenting my arguments for 3.5-3.75 still stands, even with the recent reductions in air pollution.

I feel like a fool now, so it was a success!

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