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Model Output Discussion - heading into April

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yuk at the latest icon 12z at 120 hours!!!cool westerly winds!!lets see if pressure builds in behind it!!

Sounds horrendous. All this dry weather and yet no real hot days so far this year.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yuk at the latest icon 12z at 120 hours!!!cool westerly winds!!lets see if pressure builds in behind it!!

By heck!,is it that time already,i am loosing track of hours too never mind what day it is due to lack of sleep from this abscess 

Get this pesky low in the north sea out of the way and we should be good but there is so much options on the table i don't know what is going to happen.

iconnh-0-159.thumb.png.2fe774862c0355ce27f93f5bfe4da2bc.png

and at 180,pressure builds in but i would of thought of a better outcome.

iconnh-0-180.thumb.png.3918e783b3c8461aa62ba2a3bfb7fb2e.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
missing wording
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, MKN said:

Sounds horrendous. All this dry weather and yet no real hot days so far this year.

We are not in summer yet MKN so plenty of time for that yet

the weather has been outstanding from April into may with just the odd blip with pleasant days and quiet warm temps by day for the time of year.

Edited by Allseasons-si
spell check
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

ICON run in full:

anim_loi4.gif

Unsettled blip, yes but high pressure building back in, location of the centre could be an issue, though, as more to SW, and this was showing on some of the morning runs too, would temper the temperatures a bit.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Well i prefer the gfs at 120 to the UKMO .

gfs-0-120.thumb.png.854c88c9f7517bd60f6aa4fa207f5414.pngUW120-21.thumb.gif.f8cbfa1f01ad11d9bd9247036402b2ad.gif

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Yet at 144, the UKMO looks more promising than than the GFS!

I don't know though,the UKMO looks like the ICON to me and would drop that low down the north sea and temper the temps where as the gfs would be warmer with SW'ly's.

555651302_UW144-21(1).thumb.gif.5627712f71348a271e33f246ab5e6683.gifgfs-0-144.thumb.png.701c271e000f64776d888bcf76e53cb6.png

i couldn't pin the tail on the donkey from 120>at the moment because the donkey is too big:oops::oldlaugh:

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

So far, beyond T96, I think none of them are right.  Let's see what the GEM throws out, as it is next up...

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Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted
1 hour ago, MKN said:

Sounds horrendous. All this dry weather and yet no real hot days so far this year.

Interested to know what you're expecting by mid-May...not many years reach the magic 80F before this point in May.

We've already exceeded 25C which is not a given by this point in the year by any means.

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

I don't think day 8 will be bad by looking at the GFS 12z... temperatures into the low twenties in the south, cooler in the north, and the risk of a few thundery downpours:

1678434040_h500slp(6).thumb.png.931f1aa3135239b0b2d76574ba3ff63b.png   378410809_h850t850eu(4).thumb.png.74c24ac5d7a5503be27a35ace5e40472.png

But, the main rule for thunderstorms, as every storm lover should know, is that France will get the better of them! 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

Liking GEM so far, T114 peak unsettled, and through to T174, looks like a nice build back of high pressure

image.thumb.jpg.34b7cf643eee8a25fe2cd291d1c3aac3.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.1b21e4e3d6ad77d228764f446ae54dd8.jpg

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

GEM at 174 is looking nice with temps building in nicely from the SW.

gem-0-174.thumb.png.17cd0608466a347365fc2c651da7cbd7.pnggem-1-174.thumb.png.c48fc23f5c0e781128fe23fa4568e130.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

GFS at T+303 is nae bad: h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png:oldgood:

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted

Gfs at day 10+ is serving up some barbi conditions, got a feeling its gonna be a good mean. 

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-0-270.png

gfs-0-294.png

gfs-0-318.png

gfs-1-300.png

gfs-1-324.png

giphy-2.gif

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Barbecue = giphy.thumb.gif.cf1f9d6076903531192533581b0ded69.gif

gem-0-174.thumb.png.1020d624c5d4098e95a001b429257ade.png   gem-0-198.thumb.png.2bd45ba5ece963ba19c5c3766e06fdd3.png

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
Just now, Scorcher said:

Maybe one day the GFS might actually produce an op run that is better than the mean...we can dream

It’s so frustrating. Every op run just ends up too hot, too cold, too settled, or too unsettled compared to the mean. Hardly ever sits in the pack, so you are just guessing. I think ECM will be settled again after the weekend blip.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

Maybe one day the GFS might actually produce an op run that is better than the mean...we can dream

I think they are still different models, unless anyone knows better, the GFS is the FV3 and the GEFS aren't , as far as I know?

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DTHFCJ Aficionado

DTHFCJ

Posted
  • Location: south wales uk
  • Weather Preferences: hot and sunny
  • Location: south wales uk
  • Popular Post
Posted
19 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

GFS 12z op + T192

image.thumb.png.cc07481f33debe84a5140d46717a16b8.png

followed by the mean for the same time frame:

image.thumb.png.9f3445929ac27313cb4f7900ba921fdf.png

Just watched the BBC weather for the week ahead and the mean is also much closer to their forecast.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Though, at its bog end, the GFS op is actually better than the mean.:oldgrin:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

It's also an outlier!:oldlaugh:

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

Wow, big difference at T96 on the ECM regarding the low SW of Ireland. Much deeper than GFS, UKMO & ICON.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

OK so at T120 on the ECM we are at peak wobble!  Here at T96 (note the intense depression SW) and T120:

image.thumb.jpg.14cee6d450490eb88c0e54c7a69c40c8.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.822111519d500fbba69fc480f4f9c21c.jpg

It is where we go from there that counts... 

Edited by Mike Poole
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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

image.thumb.gif.a62b602a1ffda6127f828cac85743433.gif

Gales in the NW on Friday? 

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