Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[tight isobar]

20 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

ECM mean suggests a mini breakdown for a couple of days before pressure rises again.

.

Yes as derived via MSLP,a and reflected in the ens...however at this range no breakdown is assured if-high meanders...and any Atlantic incursion looks short=very short lived!

Before a rapid response via HP...and then we look likely to hit heat spike notion...where the late May most notables =highest temp ranges look a decent bet...

[Guest]

I’m really not the biggest fan of our climate to start with but at times like these I detest it! after 5 days of sun I wake up on my only day off to cloud cover, I’ll be working the next six days from home (Which looks mostly sunny) then only to see the GFS unsettled breakdown into the Bank holiday weekend was the winning scenario - gut wrenching! Almost a clean sweep now with breakdown through Thursday/Friday the question now really being does it then settle down again or remain unsettled like the gfs ops run (which is pretty yucky). GFS ensembles back more unsettled outlook, ECM a bit of a mix so the jury’s our!

[Djdazzle]

10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I’m really not the biggest fan of our climate to start with but at times like these I detest it! after 5 days of sun I wake up on my only day off to cloud cover, I’ll be working the next six days from home (Which looks mostly sunny) then only to see the GFS unsettled breakdown into the Bank holiday weekend was the winning scenario - gut wrenching! Almost a clean sweep now with breakdown through Thursday/Friday the question now really being does it then settle down again or remain unsettled like the gfs ops run (which is pretty yucky). GFS ensembles back more unsettled outlook, ECM a bit of a mix so the jury’s our!

I wouldn’t say that GFS was the winning scenario. I wouldn’t even bet on the breakdown happening at al yet. If it was a normal Atlantic incursion, then I’d be more inclined to agree. However, this is down to that tropical storm which the models are well-known for handling poorly. I would not be surprised if the 12z runs jumped back the other way.

[carinthian]

10 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Detail to note across day 8-10.

Significant heat expanse building to the south in Europe.

Thickness circa 582>590 DAM across a belt stretching from the Azores way out East.

The size / Expanse of this belt is larger / & certainly further north than you would expect in May. 

Records already broken in southern Europe this month.

Remember my thread about super intense High pressures developing in Winters, the same applies for Summers- record breaking High pressure thicknesses.

Its only a matter of time before it comes our way....

@Steve MurrThink you are right about the Sub Tropical high ridging further north so far this summer. Must be a good sign for a nice warm or even hot summer for many in Western Europe including the British Isles. Following the ICON model runs at 180h it has been very good over the past month or so and continues to show only limited Atlantic frontal influence and reinforces the high pressure belt consistently over the British Isles and keeps the White Sea Low as another dominant feature . Sort of back up by this mornings latest ECM run below at day 10 which would indicate cool conditions to affect Scandinavia and at times into Eastern Europe whilst Western Europe prone to increasing heat build ups.

C

[johnholmes]

The increase in cloud cover, shown on the satellite is a product of the upper trough being much closer to the UK than it has been for a while. This is likely to be a feature as I try to show below for the 6-10 day outlook.

 500 mb anomaly charts for Saturday 16 May

Ec-gfs both show a less ridged pattern in the uk area, this something that has been trending, off and on, over the past few days.Ec has some +ve heights into the south whilst GFS has the European ridge pretty flat.

Noaa shows quite a change in the trough position, from south of Greenland on Monday to quite close to the west of the UK last evening. Thus all 3 are suggesting a less ridged spell for the UK or at least the probability of the occasional trough working into W and NW areas but the SE third of the UK probably remaining dry, at least for most with any rain that may encroach this area being very slight and intermittent in the 6-10 day period. Not confident enough for beyond 10 days but NOAA does show a rather slack Atlantic flow dominating the country, with little in the way of +ve heights close by.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[emmett garland]

I,m loving the model outputs at the moment..living in Ireland we are currently enjoying one of our greatest starts to summer {Amazingly through lock down} .For us on the Emerald Isle a temperature over 20 degrees is a bonus in summer months with thousand;s scurrying out going on about how hot it is and we can only dream about 25.5 degrees achieved so early in April in st Jame;s park  so thankfully it looks like high pressure in control and yes the post tropical storm or whatever will be pushed on towards the always unlucky Faroe islands.

[SMU]

06z > It wouldnt surprise me if we see the heat modelled at ~ 168 over France get modelled & nudged further north into the UK

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

06z > It wouldnt surprise me if we see the heat modelled at ~ 168 over France get modelled & nudged further north into the UK

Don’t curse it Steve!

[Djdazzle]

@Steve Murr you were right. Moving in the right direction..

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

@Steve Murr you were right. Moving in the right direction..

850s still in single digits though and that low rapidly heading towards us

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Alderc said:

850s still in single digits though and that low rapidly heading towards us

Not bothered by that. FI seems to be around 120. This run is a small step in the right direction which I feel will continue on the 12z runs - hopefully!

[Methuselah]

Nothing too serious lurking in the Day 7 woodshed...European heat continues to build nicely:

    

[damianslaw]

A mixed outlook, the atlantic trough playing a more influential role than recently, battling against high pressure. Interesting to note tropical storm activity so early in the season - these features tend to not show there hand until middle summer. 

In the short term, some useful rain for NW regions, the south and east staying dry albeit rather cloudy and warming up. By Tuesday most of the UK comes under the influence of high pressure, these bringing a temporary surge of warm dry conditions mid-week, mid-high 20s possible in central, southern regions Wednesday/Thursday bringing the warmest conditions of the year so far. 

Models then showing the influence of the trough again,bringing a quick breakdown to western parts, uncertainty thereafter, how sustained any atlantic incursion will be, we do have heat building to our south and an extensive high pressure zone which could quickly nose into southern parts - I suspect we may end up with the very standard NW-SE summer split, rain/cloud further north and west you go, warmest driest sunniest conditions reserved for the SE.

Late May often sees a resurgence in atlantic activity, stuttering and starting and stopping before getting into more sustained gear later in June/early July (I'm talking from a NW UK perspective).

[mb018538]

This still looks promising at day 10....

[Djdazzle]

That heat building to our south looks impressive. Very 2003 like. However, we may need a couple of bites at the cherry before we really tap into it.

[MP-R]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

That heat building to our south looks impressive. Very 2003 like. However, we may need a couple of bites at the cherry before we really tap into it.

Yes. It’s sctually where we could do with a little help from the Atlantic to act as a heat pump. Alas, it’s not really a time of year associated with the Atlantic at all so may, as you say, take a few tries.

[Methuselah]

A potentially thundery breakdown?

    

The blue-green amphibian's quite cute, too!

Edited May 16, 2020 by General Cluster

[Zak M]

Looks good! 

   

   

[MATTWOLVES 3]

14 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

I would like to put my 50p in the meter and make it short as i am feeling a little deflated my self with a nasty abscess in the mouth,uncomfortable nights even though it's not that warm,hard to swallow just like the models past 120,but i will survive

the means from both ECM and gefs still look okay out to day ten though i suspect the gefs will be cooler due to the orientation of the high

the latest from NOAA(cpc) is still OK up-to day ten too with upper SW'ly veering westerly later,what to make out of that day 8+ chart looks to me like southerly tracking lows but nothing that meaningful 

so still lots to be resolved(as always) 120hrs+,will that Atlantic break through?,don't underestimate high pressure

right! going to take a short 40 winks as i am shattered and i will be back later

take care all.

Hopefully you can get that sorted mate.. Absolutely horrid to have an absess on your tooth, I've had many sleepless nights, make sure you at least get some antibiotics for that though si, as infection can spread.. All the best.. 

Right then.. The 6z mean keeps that low pressure mainly to the NW.. with plenty of settled Conditions to the South. It looks pretty good right out to day 10,beyond that is it tends to have us in a no man's land, lower pressure to the N/NE and the Azores high to our SW.. But this is far to far out regarding pressure patterns, so best taken with a pinch of salt.. But at this stage moving towards next weekend... Perhaps the unsettled conditions affecting mainly the far W/NW... far from certain though..

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

we may need a couple of bites at the cherry

Well I went cherry picking and the last day of the meteorological spring / 1st day of the meteorological summer might be nae bad according to the GEFS 6z!!!
 

 

Edited May 16, 2020 by JON SNOW

[damianslaw]

44 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

A potentially thundery breakdown?

    

The blue-green amphibian's quite cute, too!

Those low heights N of Scandi will have the effect of enabling high heights to our north - this will act as a block for allowing any significant heat building from the south, as it will force the trough to our west to remain unstuck edging east in situ as it has nowhere else to go - the 6Z output a plausible outcome, need all bits of the jigsaw to fit, azores high propelled NW and away from us.

[summer blizzard]

I'm not sold on this dam talk leading to anything but 2005 and 2006 were the years for 26th May that had high dam values over Europe since 2000.

Models now decided that this spell breaks at day 5/6. Euro of course brings it back afterwards.

[Daniel*]

5 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

UKMO also looks like it may go on to ridging HP up at 168. It’s misleading to say it’s fallen into line as they are both quite different.

 

Shocking difference...

ECM/UKMO/GFS absolutely unequivocal GFS looks to be right for at least for a temporary breakdown credit where it’s due, why is it so hard to to see this? Seems you’re never convinced unless it shows warm/settled. It doesn’t work like that I’m afraid. If you cast your mind back to 72 hours ago things looked rather different! 

[Methuselah]

Todays 06Z GEFS ensembles still looking okay; nowt about which to worry about IMO?

    

Just no sign of a heatwave just yet, is all!

Edited May 16, 2020 by General Cluster

[Djdazzle]

13 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Shocking difference...

ECM/UKMO/GFS absolutely unequivocal GFS looks to be right for at least for a temporary breakdown credit where it’s due, why is it so hard to to see this? Seems you’re never convinced unless it shows warm/settled. It doesn’t work like that I’m afraid. If you cast your mind back to 72 hours ago things looked rather different! 

I get that, and yes there is evidence of a mini breakdown. I am just casting doubt that it will happen. Refer to my other post for details as to why I think that.