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Model Output Discussion - heading into April

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Don’t agree with that at all, sorry. It consistently verifies highly, and only just behind ECM as the 2nd highest performing model in the world. I find it excellent!

The above stats was posted for N Hemisphere, for our part of the world I think it struggles more with Atlantic region, that is my experience, which can make or break cold spells and plumes. I actually prefer using GFS at day 5-6, ECM is undoubtedly king but it’s not perfect no model is. UKMO model is not an excellent model IMO but at our disposal it is one of best. I can’t tell you how many times over the years the UKMO has done a uturn and well of course GFS as well, but this is not model that only goes out to day 6 well technically day 7. GFS model does get a lot of negative press and sometimes deserved, but it does do well catching out a change in direction in long range I find that’s what I’ve observed. 

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Last one from me, but ICON 18z T114 develops that key low in the south a bit more than GFS 12z at same time, here ICON first:

image.thumb.jpg.0d819b052cd811cd84c5e20470858ba7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.0dfa538d5c7a99ad86dbb312e942a040.jpg

So more evidence that the ECM/UKMO solution is right.   Well I'm done for today, enjoy the zoom run, it kicks off in 10 minutes...

 

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I would like to put my 50p in the meter and make it short as i am feeling a little deflated my self with a nasty abscess in the mouth,uncomfortable nights even though it's not that warm,hard to swallow just like the models past 120,but i will survive?

the means from both ECM and gefs still look okay out to day ten though i suspect the gefs will be cooler due to the orientation of the high

EDH1-240.thumb.gif.687f19f8e8f29863ed54f855c8bb3191.gifgensnh-21-1-240.thumb.png.66652ecd5b4eeacb3ef3f4c50433a7a4.png

the latest from NOAA(cpc) is still OK up-to day ten too with upper SW'ly veering westerly later,what to make out of that day 8+ chart looks to me like southerly tracking lows but nothing that meaningful 

610day_03.thumb.gif.8caa6aba22b50dd64c899365772bbe9f.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.fe2c481a3a09297d1cfab1e70cf1f567.gif

so still lots to be resolved(as always) 120hrs+,will that Atlantic break through?,don't underestimate high pressure

right! going to take a short 40 winks as i am shattered and i will be back later

take care all.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Always the same. ECM 1, UKMO 2, GFS 3.

Which means a greater chance of dialing up the heat as next week goes on. Raw temps on ECM up to 27C by next Thursday, so not far at all from the first 30C of the year - it will be close. 

Even with *current given synoptics*..

There is around 3=pops @28\30c possibilities in the next 5\8 days...

And we know how at these ranges tempered=temperatures are rounded..or indeed not!!

And with such HP drenching the sutlist of tweeks can both increase those chances...and create a stationary UK heat bath....certainly for the southernmost quarters anyway.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_5.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_5.png

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_eu_3 (1).png

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_eu_4.png

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_eu_3.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_3.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Not surprised to see the models backing away from a predominantly settled outlook next week, and instead something more unsettled in time - this is alignment with the jetstream profile forecasts all week that have shown an eventual westerly zonal flow, albeit perhaps more of a SW flow. Key I feel is how far north east heights ridge and build early next week, models suggesting quite far north which paves the way for the atlantic trough to make inroads, though may be a stuttering path.

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One of either ecm or gfs gona have serious egg on its face by tomorrow morning!!gfs 18z not backing down at all!!!

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12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I still don't agree with this analysis, when you talk about jet stream profile, you really mean GFS, no?  No such plots are available on the models that might have a better take on things, the ECM or UKMO.   My money's on them at the moment. 

Edit, meant to quote the post above by @damianslaw but didn't quite manage it. 8 pints down, sorry, but only way to deal with this coronavirus nightmare.

Hi mike that’s no way of helping matters, if you want to talk about anything, and I mean anything feel free to DM me! 

If you was hoping for a pun special, I’m afraid last orders has already been called. 

8DB62133-3CE5-4278-9F01-1B33DD9834C7.thumb.png.4944036f038e4cbffc95da1df9ba12a7.png

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Posted (edited)

And to add insult to injury, GFS 18z doesn't separate the lows even now, T114:

image.thumb.jpg.bfdc018afbee685b756d50cba57e1d96.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Detail to note across day 8-10.

Significant heat expanse building to the south in Europe.

Thickness circa 582>590 DAM across a belt stretching from the Azores way out East.

77201C91-EBA0-4B60-A908-B9FF945E2CBF.thumb.jpeg.3b5212afef77b91c4c9969b17ed2b5f7.jpeg

The size / Expanse of this belt is larger / & certainly further north than you would expect in May. 

Records already broken in southern Europe this month.

Remember my thread about super intense High pressures developing in Winters, the same applies for Summers- record breaking High pressure thicknesses.

Its only a matter of time before it comes our way....

Interesting indeed. I think in the future this will look more familiar. More heat in summer and less cold in winter. The planet is getting warmer and warmer and before long. Maybe not in our lifetime this country(maybe southern half) could have a climate like southern France/Northern Spain. Hottest year on record last year/heat in Australia last year causes devastating fires etc. May be a sign that its coming. 

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1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

And to add insult to injury, GFS 18z doesn't separate the lows even now, T114:

image.thumb.jpg.bfdc018afbee685b756d50cba57e1d96.jpg

This is not settled yet/maybe by the 12z tomorrow. The high looks a lot more resilient to me. I hope anyway. 

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2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Detail to note across day 8-10.

Significant heat expanse building to the south in Europe.

Thickness circa 582>590 DAM across a belt stretching from the Azores way out East.

77201C91-EBA0-4B60-A908-B9FF945E2CBF.thumb.jpeg.3b5212afef77b91c4c9969b17ed2b5f7.jpeg

The size / Expanse of this belt is larger / & certainly further north than you would expect in May. 

Records already broken in southern Europe this month.

Remember my thread about super intense High pressures developing in Winters, the same applies for Summers- record breaking High pressure thicknesses.

Its only a matter of time before it comes our way....

Not too sure that logic follows.

We see intense cold to our N in winter, but it doesn't mean it's only a matter of time until it comes our way.

Synoptics have to allow advection of these air masses to our shores. 

This being said, I'm convinced we'll see some very warm/hot plumes this summer but these will be outnumbered by periods of generally more unsettled weather- especially as summer progresses.

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Morning all UKMO falling in line with GFS for a breakdown as early as next Friday. You have to ask maybe GFS was onto something...

826ED95D-4E72-434E-8169-64F62FCB1789.thumb.gif.838b9e1441754c707efcb94d098c838a.gifF511EB69-8DDD-438C-9450-333C918FABD3.thumb.png.06fd1c92a3552d7361eb949882daa8a9.png

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Well I went cherry picking and amazingly I found some peaches on the GEFS 0z tree!!!!..??☀️
 

08A739B4-0649-43CA-9501-2CA763D0313B.thumb.png.272c4f53cc524c053ee17d6331e0ee02.pngA6376402-8FCD-4AC7-A81F-0015F64658BA.thumb.png.4c72b68acba87f18dd68b3ac51513787.pngEAA84B95-A62A-457F-B015-DC3D7EF15BD8.thumb.png.0602c34078e8a6ab2594a75864ddc9e6.png71EED58C-9A73-4974-B77D-151A0086C657.thumb.png.6783009f4ed560a431b073a9e7591e53.pngAE1A9A9B-74BD-47B9-81E7-8FE6120CB4EE.thumb.png.94d006e4bf06763ea498bba3c48eb6fe.png8A6E324F-F7B6-49B0-B99D-F0B96F11C8C9.thumb.png.4a45b28b5527e7124896550c34ccc90f.png07FED4BB-E274-4C27-9F00-48F2DBBF5B61.thumb.png.412c62d56752e160bd95ab51aaeb28e9.png

 

 

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UKMO also looks like it may go on to ridging HP up at 168. It’s misleading to say it’s fallen into line as they are both quite different.

 

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Ecm with a clean sweep this morning introducing some much needed rain and unsettled conditions later next week, could be some heavy rain as it bumps into the warming air..

 

ECMOPEU00_144_1-2.png

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1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Morning all UKMO falling in line with GFS for a breakdown as early as next Friday. You have to ask maybe GFS was onto something...

826ED95D-4E72-434E-8169-64F62FCB1789.thumb.gif.838b9e1441754c707efcb94d098c838a.gifF511EB69-8DDD-438C-9450-333C918FABD3.thumb.png.06fd1c92a3552d7361eb949882daa8a9.png

One set of runs and you are congratulating GFS? I really want to see more runs as I'm not convinced this morning.

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1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

One set of runs and you are congratulating GFS? I really want to see more runs as I'm not convinced this morning.

I’m not convinced that the models have a handling on this tropical storm yet.

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Just now, Djdazzle said:

I’m not convinced that the models have a handling on this tropical storm yet.

Indeed, I think there are a lot of questions still to be answered after midweek.

I also think that the GFS is showing the worst case scenario, as it often does. It's actually showing a breakdown happening on Thursday evening effectively.

The ECM also shows a rebuild of high pressure after an initial breakdown, while the GFS predictably puts us into a cool westerly regime.

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Posted (edited)

I really don't see anything wrong with next Friday's 00Z solution. Especially for those of us not wanting to pay extortionate food-prices come autumntime!:oldlaugh:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And, what with all that heat building down South, South-West and South-East, our time will almost certainly come...Even if might require a little help from upcoming Atlantic storms!:oldgood:

And the 00Z ensembles are nae too bad either:

t850Suffolk.png    t2mSuffolk.png

Edited by General Cluster
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44 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Ecm with a clean sweep this morning introducing some much needed rain and unsettled conditions later next week, could be some heavy rain as it bumps into the warming air..

 

ECMOPEU00_144_1-2.png

Yes must admit I was slightly surprised to see both the UKMO and the ECM allow the Atlantic low to make more progress by T144, in recent times the trend has been opposite... Still looking warm next week but obviously not holding on beyond Thursday on this morning's charts, still looking like 25-27C is possible during the middle of next week which is still very respectable for the time of year.

Not sure we've seen the final answer for next weekend, as ensembles remain very confused about the picture beyond next Thursday. 

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ECM mean suggests a mini breakdown for a couple of days before pressure rises again.

.

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