Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Djdazzle]

ECM following UKMO it seems up to 144.

[Mark wheeler]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

ECM following UKMO it seems up to 144.

A great combination

[Zak M]

168 looks better!

Edited May 15, 2020 by Zak M

[mb018538]

Just now, Zak M said:

168 looks a bit better!

It’s a cracker. Likely top end, but more closer to UKMO than GFS.

[Zak M]

Looks good for southerners 

Edited May 15, 2020 by Zak M

[Mark wheeler]

The not so mighty Navgem at 144 . So we have in one corner GFS , Icon and Navgem and in the other corner  Ukmo , Gem  and ECM , Take your pick 

Edited May 15, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Djdazzle]

I have never seen a HP system move from south of the U.K. to be near the arctic 4 days later.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T216:

Warm settled and with power to add?

Edit, power didn't add, T240, but that is a long way into FI

Edited May 15, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Daniel*]

Strange chart we all know ECM has tendency to overdo amplification it is hiding back the tide here. I think this run has lost the plot it doesn’t look right.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

That's a good ECM high pressure is largely in control, any low pressure out West is struggling to make any real inroads at this stage, I'm expecting a solid mean.. Pool at the ready. 

[Daniel*]

16 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It’s a cracker. Likely top end, but more closer to UKMO than GFS.

 

Western Scotland asks for their money back  

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Strange chart we all know ECM has tendency to overdo amplification it is hiding back the tide here. I think this run has lost the plot it doesn’t look right.

Well it hasn’t lost the plot anything like the GFS, that’s for sure.

[mb018538]

ECM is unsettled by day 10, but that’s so far away at the moment. We can’t even get agreement at day 5/6!

[Djdazzle]

Bit of a breakdown at 240, but hey, it’s day 10. Lots still to be resolved.

GFS needing the support of ICON and NAVGEM, desperate times!

[Mike Poole]

Well until we get the situation at T120 nailed down, the rest is for the birds, to reiterate here the GFS and ECM solutions:

The southern low is much more significant on ECM than GFS,  on GFS it barely registers, meaning GFS overblows the northern main low and brings unsettled weather.  ECM, and also particularly UKMO, develops a more complex system of two lows, the combined effect is to draw more southerly winds strengthening the block to the east of the UK.  Well that's how I see it.  But at T120, this has to be resolved in the next couple of model runs.  My money fairly and squarely on the UKMO, ECM, for this one, but beyond that there are still big uncertainties.  

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Well it hasn’t lost the plot anything like the GFS, that’s for sure.

But, to be fair, I don't think any of the models were expecting an Atlantic tropical storm to enter the fray, in May! It's my guess that, what with that and the likely shortage of both airplane and balloon data, the models may be feeling a tad 'deflated' just now...?

[Daniel*]

38 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Bit of a breakdown at 240, but hey, it’s day 10. Lots still to be resolved.

GFS needing the support of ICON and NAVGEM, desperate times!

Well I’m not sure what people are wanting out of this, but a few days of warm if very warm weather looks likely some less deliberate weather for N U.K. one way or another, the models want westerlies to break through eventually, how long can we continue fighting it off? I’ll be very surprised if we finish May without some breakdown affecting all areas, even if it does, it may become more settled again rather quickly. My garden is in serious need of rain, I welcome it.

Edited May 15, 2020 by Daniel*

[Daniel*]

46 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Well it hasn’t lost the plot anything like the GFS, that’s for sure.

That seemed too progressive but models generally not so keen on idea of prolonged settled conditions now which GFS model first hinted on. UKMO has gone down in my estimation, it’s just not very good at all day 5-6 my observation over the years, we witnessed it in winter, it continued holding the flame and let go last. It is not one of most consistent models, it tends to be too clean I find, when reality is more messy, it has been consistent lately but it only takes us to midweek, and well you can be consistently wrong.

[Mike Poole]

ECM ensembles, let's look first at that T120 period which looks crucial to future evolution:

Well that Southern low has more made of it on the mean than the GFS op run, the spread chart shows uncertainty in that area too, but I am not sure that would include the GFS op run.

T240:

Surprisingly bouyant, I'd say,  more than I was expecting, actually!  

Edited May 15, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Northwest NI]

11 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Well I’m not sure what people are wanting out of this, but a few days of warm if very warm weather looks likely some less deliberate weather for N U.K. one way or another, the models want westerlies to break through eventually, how long can we continue fighting it off? I’ll be very surprised if we finish May without some breakdown affecting all areas, even if it does, it may become more settled again rather quickly. My garden is in serious need of rain, I welcome it.

There’s no hosepipe ban. Never ask for rain.

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That seemed too progressive but models generally not so keen on idea of prolonged settled conditions now which GFS model first hinted on. UKMO has gone down in my estimation, it’s just not very good at all day 5-6 my observation over the years, we witnessed it in winter, it continued holding the flame and let go last. It is not one of most consistent models, it tends to be too clean I find, when reality is more messy, it has been consistent lately but it only takes us to midweek, and well you can be consistently wrong.

Don’t agree with that at all, sorry. It consistently verifies highly, and only just behind ECM as the 2nd highest performing model in the world. I find it excellent!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm not so sure any real breakdown is coming.. Perhaps a little more unsettled for a time towards more W/NW areas but perhaps not pushing much further inland.. Even by day 10 pressure is relatively high.. Still think its looki g good... Anyhow there's my model watching done for the day... Off for a nice cupper... Enjoy ya evening folks. 

Edited May 15, 2020 by Mattwolves

[Mike Poole]

Current verification stats, if anyone is interested, these z500 anomaly north hemisphere for day 5:

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Current verification stats, if anyone is interested, these z500 anomaly north hemisphere for day 5:

Always the same. ECM 1, UKMO 2, GFS 3.

Which means a greater chance of dialing up the heat as next week goes on. Raw temps on ECM up to 27C by next Thursday, so not far at all from the first 30C of the year - it will be close. 

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Don’t agree with that at all, sorry. It consistently verifies highly, and only just behind ECM as the 2nd highest performing model in the world. I find it excellent!

The above stats was posted for N Hemisphere, for our part of the world I think it struggles more with Atlantic region, that is my experience, which can make or break cold spells and plumes. I actually prefer using GFS at day 5-6, ECM is undoubtedly king but it’s not perfect no model is. UKMO model is not an excellent model IMO but at our disposal it is one of best. I can’t tell you how many times over the years the UKMO has done a uturn and well of course GFS as well, but this is not model that only goes out to day 6 well technically day 7. GFS model does get a lot of negative press and sometimes deserved, but it does do well catching out a change in direction in long range I find that’s what I’ve observed.