Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[mb018538]

It’ll either go one of two ways (probably). The tropical system next to Florida is forecast to recurve out into the Atlantic, probably towards the UK:

This could either add energy to the jetstream and force a flatter unsettled change....or add more warm air advection, and re-enforce the more amplified ridge/trough pattern that we’ve had. Probably where the ensemble splits lay too.

Edited May 15, 2020 by mb018538

[knocker]

The midnight ecm has it merging with the main Atlantic trough thus

[Methuselah]

4 hours ago, Zak M said:

Hmmm... what's that making its way up from the continent on day 11?! 

   

I'll have a P please, Bob!

[Djdazzle]

This will not be resolved tonight. GFS and UKMO are miles apart at T144.

[mb018538]

UKMO the best of the bunch at 144. GFS already turning unsettled.

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z looking good for midweek; for Scotty, those SSE'erly zephyrs look spiffing!

    

Time for a spot of the Gay Gordons methinks!

[Mark wheeler]

I know what one id rather back , obviously doesn’t mean it’s correct though . 

Edited May 15, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Mike Poole]

Charts at T144:

I've included ICON as well as that seems to side with GFS and went the way of the pear by T180!

Trough out west handled so differently by UKMO compared to the others.

[Mark wheeler]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Charts at T144:

I've included ICON as well as that seems to side with GFS and went the way of the pear by T180!

Trough out west handled so differently by UKMO compared to the others.

Let’s see if the gem can make it 2-2 

[shaky]

Ukmo fantastic and backs this mornings 00z run!!im.gona go with ukmo here and expect gfs to do it slow crawl back!!ecm will be somewhere down the middle i reckon!!

[Methuselah]

Am I 'losing it' peeps...? Coz I cannot see what's bad about what the 12Z suggests, for next weekend: mostly dry, sunny spells, temps in the high teens? The only thing missing is a huge dollop of rain?

    

I love record-breaking heat as much as anyone does, but nae all the time; I'm nae Lawrence of Arabia! Yee haw!

[Djdazzle]

In fact, there are already big differences at T96. From 72 to 96, GFS really blows up the LP in the Atlantic, whereas UKMO doesn't.

Who'd bet against the GFS op being yet another outlier?

Edited May 15, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Zak M]

According to the GFS 12z, Wednesday looks to be the best day next week, with a lot of sunshine on offer, and some warm temperatures:

      

Thursday looks to be the day for storm lovers (including me) with some thunderstorms developing in front of a band of frontal rain, and still, some warm temps:

         

[mb018538]

Wednesday looks like the best bet to beat the 26c max temperature of the year so far. 

GEM looking more like UKMO too. Let’s assume gfs is off the pace....again.

[Mark wheeler]

Here is the Gem. Closer to the UKMO but with slightly more easterly compared . I’d make that 2-2 

Edited May 15, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[mb018538]

The main differences arise from ukmo and gem (pictured) phasing the lows differently, and sending some energy and low pressure down into Iberia, which helps prop up the UK high. GFS doesn’t have this, and just pushes everything through. Keep an eye out.

Edited May 15, 2020 by mb018538

[shaky]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

The main differences arise from ukmo and gem (pictured) phasing the lows differently, and sending some energy and low pressure down into Iberia, which helps prop up the UK high. GFS doesn’t have this, and just pushes everything through. Keep an eye out.

Im telling ya now that gfs is making a mess of this ONCE AGAIN!!!cant really handle any form of distruption!!!lets see where ecm takes us!!if it backs the ukmo then game over for gfs!if it backs gfs however

[Methuselah]

Another thing that excites me: the prospect of intense, slow-moving thundery downpours!

    

[Mark wheeler]

Wow Gem out  to 186 and the fine weather continues in earnest on this run , I hope it’s in the Right ball park .

Edit , Just added the last chart at 240 , what a run !

 

Edited May 15, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[shaky]

Wow gfs mean and control disagree with the op to such and extent that it goes the other way and brings in cooler east winds instead!!but the dry and sunny theme continues!!no rain at all on the mean and control up to 200 hours so far!

[Methuselah]

Without attempting any detailed forecasting, that's a very impressive area of 15-30C T850s building over SE'ern Europe, North Africa and NW Asia, at T+384!

    

Edited May 15, 2020 by General Cluster

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think the mean is King.. Exeter do mention the risk of a more unsettled blip next weekend, but confidence is low, with perhaps a return of settled Conditions quickly following on. The 12z mean is largely going down the settled route again.. Its not hot by any means but it would be warm in sunnier conditions such is the time of year. I'm hopeful that paddling pool is coming out very soon. 

[Guest]

4 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

Please, please, please - can we have some consistency on the 12z runs!

 

Nope - GFS like a dog with a bone on the rapid breakdown and again probably two days too quick against its respective ensemble pack, although there is some backing from ICON on the rapid Atlantic breakdown. Post the 21st the GFS Ops is horrid. UKMO miles away from GFS, with the deep extra/sub tropical storm in the Atlantic I'd favour a very warm or hot end to next week, GEM seems to back this up too.

Have to say I'm beginning to think most the working week next week will likely be increasing warm, the GFS just looks too progressive and I'd be surprised to see a breakdown before at least Saturday. Warmest day of the year looking odds now maybe still a shot at an early 30C.  

[Mike Poole]

ECM out to T120, here GFS, UKMO and EC:

The ECM sides more with UKMO on the key issue which is the separation of the two lows in the W Atlantic.  Expect a reasonable run from here, but possibly not as good as UKMO would be if it went beyond T144...

 

 

[Methuselah]

Blimey, the 12Z operational run really is off on its own...if it gets any worse, someone (who shall remain nameless!) will start predicting 'widespread lowland snow'!