Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Gowon]

14 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

GFS and GEM looking very good with a light E/SE. UKMO not so much but I am a little concerned about heights around Svalbard and the prospect of the low 850s over Eastern Europe being pulled over if the easterly is too strong

Yes, I'm fed up of cool/cold easterlies too, but I don't think it'll be a problem this time round.

Going by the GFS we might get some homegrown showers on tues (fingers crossed) which will also be the warmest day next week before the easterlies get going.

Edited May 14, 2020 by D.V.R
typo

[Djdazzle]

No point looking at temperature charts nearly a week away. Small changes to the to the orientation of the HP will make a big difference.

I don't think people are slating the UKMO 144 chart because it isn't showing what they want - It just looks suspect with the way it blows up that LP in the space of 24 hours.

[shaky]

15 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Eh!? Upgrade on previous runs?

GFS 6Z

 

GFS 12Z

 

Cmon now mate - let’s at least try and look at the charts without being utterly biased. 

The charts above from the 12Z are still decent for sunshine/warmth but the window for hot temperatures next week seems to be shrinking by the hour at the moment. (25C +)

Okay maybe not in terms of temperature but cmon in terms of pressure especially earlier on its waaaay stronger!!yesterday we were complaining gfs was too flat

[mb018538]

Good old GEM. Still looking good. 

[Methuselah]

Well, I must say that that was not the most jaw-droppingly scintillating GFS 12Z I've ever seen; but, putting things into perspective -- it ain't really all that bad...Is it?

[Guest]

So in the space of a day we've gone through the motions on this spell, we've had the Atlantic barrelling though, potential record breaking warmth and now this evening a complete bore-fest, seems to be a theme across the 12z's tonight to regress high pressure north eastwards which will always cut off any warmth. If tonight's output panned out I wouldn't fancy being on the east coast but for most back into the high teens temps wise and cold nights, plenty of sun, useable weather but not very exciting (certainly better than rain though). 

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

So in the space of a day we've gone through the motions on this spell, we've had the Atlantic barrelling though, potential record breaking warmth and now this evening a complete bore-fest, seems to be a theme across the 12z's tonight to regress high pressure north eastwards which will always cut off any warmth. If tonight's output panned out I wouldn't fancy being on the east coast but for most back into the high teens temps wise and cold nights, plenty of sun, useable weather but not very exciting (certainly better than rain though). 

Perhaps a bit harsh! I think low to mid 20s is possible next week, away from the east coast.

[mb018538]

 

GFS ensembles have totally backed away from any big heat. Just pleasant now instead, maybe 20-25c tops. Which is fine!

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

GFS ensembles have totally backed away from any big heat. Just pleasant now instead, maybe 20-25c tops. Which is fine!

True. But they also maintain the T850 operational and mean at around 5C (15-20C or thereabouts, at the surface) throughout? Don't forget it's still only May...

     

[I remember Atlantic 252]

30 minutes ago, Alderc said:

So in the space of a day we've gone through the motions on this spell, we've had the Atlantic barrelling though, potential record breaking warmth and now this evening a complete bore-fest, seems to be a theme across the 12z's tonight to regress high pressure north eastwards which will always cut off any warmth. If tonight's output panned out I wouldn't fancy being on the east coast but for most back into the high teens temps wise and cold nights, plenty of sun, useable weather but not very exciting (certainly better than rain though). 

Thing it it's May, will nearly always see the E'ly idea winning out over Atlantic air or true heat, least likely is zonality

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

True. But they also maintain the T850 operational and mean at around 5C (15-20C or thereabouts, at the surface) throughout? Don't forget it's still only May...

     

Wouldn’t pay too much attention to those 2m temps. They are always under done. Says 17c on Tuesday there, BBC output going 21-24c in the SE. Think we all know what’s going to be right!

[Mike Poole]

Amplification greater on ECM than UKMO at T120:

Let's see where this one goes....

[Zak M]

Mmm!!

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Wouldn’t pay too much attention to those 2m temps. They are always under done. Says 17c on Tuesday there, BBC output going 21-24c in the SE. Think we all know what’s going to be right!

Of course not, mb,,,You've emphasised the point I was making. What was it, again?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Super duper 12z mean from GFS.. High pressure is just everywhere, I just can't see any meaningful breakdown going on these charts.. We all know what will come next if these charts go on for to long!!! 

[Gowon]

45 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

GFS ensembles have totally backed away from any big heat. Just pleasant now instead, maybe 20-25c tops. Which is fine!

Not really a fan of really hot weather in London, so it's ideal temps for me.

[Mike Poole]

Plume incoming, ECM T168:

Looks like a heat pump out SW, maybe...

Edited May 14, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Plume incoming, ECM T168:

I would say thunderstorms incoming

warm yes but the plume doesn't really come this far north and stays in southern France south

still time for corrections though.

 

[Djdazzle]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Plume incoming, ECM T168:

Looks like a heat pump out SW, maybe...

Nope, it’s ECM’s turn to throw a wobbler tonight! 192 is a bizarre chart.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Nope, it’s ECM’s turn to throw a wobbler tonight! 192 is a bizarre chart.

It is indeed!  But I wouldn't put it past it to recover in the last two frames, no guarantees though...

[mb018538]

ECM isn’t great either. So it could just be a 2-3 day job of warm-ish temperatures, followed by who-knows what at the moment. I think as it’s such an unusual evolution the models are really struggling. They are all so different, even run to run.

[Gowon]

Some will be hoping the GFS is right tonight looking at that chart from the ECM.

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Nope, it’s ECM’s turn to throw a wobbler tonight! 192 is a bizarre chart.

Just like Autumn really? But unlike the Hurricane season, the North Atlantic Wobbler Season (NAWS) occurs twice each year?

Edited May 14, 2020 by General Cluster

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Just like Autumn really? But unlike the Hurricane season, the the North Atlantic Wobbler Season (NAWS) occurs twice each year?

Is your second name tong Pete? cos that's how the ECM has gone

i hope it's just a wobble and a cool outlier later in the pack.

Edited May 14, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Djdazzle]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM isn’t great either. So it could just be a 2-3 day job of warm-ish temperatures, followed by who-knows what at the moment. I think as it’s such an unusual evolution the models are really struggling. They are all so different, even run to run.

ECM is actually a better run up to 168, then it loses the plot. May be an outlier.