Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Gowon]

The GFS is quite similar to the ICON and the UKMO will probably end up the same way.

[Djdazzle]

8 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

The GFS is quite similar to the ICON and the UKMO will probably end up the same way.

ICON is more progressive than the GFS at T180.

What evidence do you have to back up your comment about the UKMO?

Edited May 13, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Zak M]

WOW! 

   

We're for sure in for something special! The chances of 30c being reached is certainly there.

[matt111]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

ICON is more progressive than the ICON at T180.

Well I guess there’s a way it can be more progressive than itself somehow. 

[Allseasons-Si]

There could be lots of thundery potential with the latest gfs with that trough/low out west just meandering around like a lost sheep throwing up warm air as well as some PPN at times

the UKMO is splendid out to day six i have to say

 

 

[Djdazzle]

Just now, matt111 said:

Well I guess there’s a way it can be more progressive than itself somehow. 

Oops - original post corrected!

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Northern Sky said:

You're obviously not a gardener or bothered about what the vegetation looks like. We've had about 10mm of rain over the last 6 weeks and the top couple of feet of soil is bone dry, everything apart from the trees is looking tired already. 

I don't want a washout just a day of rain now and then to keep things fresh and growing. 

That's fair enough, generally the ideal scenario for many of us would be rain overnight that clears up by the morning I think. We have had one or two short showers here over the last few days that have eased the dryness very slightly.

[mb018538]

GFS 12z for Friday 22nd May

GFS 6z for Friday 22nd May

Utterly clueless.

Edited May 13, 2020 by mb018538

[Methuselah]

Gee whizz! I'll be out on the farm next Friday...

    

Perhaps I should buy one of Mr Data's famous personal lightning conductors?

                                         

[Gowon]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

ICON is more progressive than the ICON at T180.

What evidence do you have to back up your comment about the UKMO?

Lol.. I can't because it doesn't go out that far and did you actually read my comment?.. I said the GFS is quite similar to the ICON, not identical, Jeez!

I just have a feeling the UKMO will end up similar because I've been watching the models for years.

[MKN]

10 minutes ago, Zak M said:

WOW! 

   

We're for sure in for something special! The chances of 30c being reached is certainly there.

Not on that GFS run. I do think the low is being over cooked though and therefor a slacker southerly over a slightly more drawn out period could result in 30c

[Allseasons-Si]

As long as we keep that low out west/SW then we keep on the warm side of things,if it barrels through like it has shown on previous runs then it will be cooler and more unsettled,i am just hoping that the latest models have got this right

who's in for a scorching easterly

[Guest]

Some pretty odd synoptics being thrown about in the T150-240 range this evening. I'm really not sure what to make of it. We saw many times last summer that disrupting troughs were nearly always we slower than forecast even up to the 3-5day range so maybe a bit too much progression.  

GFS just looks odd, I'd expect it to be massive outlier especially in parts of Scandi and northern Scotland where that warm tongue of uppers get advected in. 

GEM has issues as well, at T174 its modelling dew points of just 3-5C in the south despite temps of mid 20's. Given the source of air I'd say that's almost impossible.

While nothing can ever be disregarded I think I'll check back in 12hrs time.....

Edited May 13, 2020 by Guest

[Methuselah]

That run really was a stonker. Some may even suspect it's too good to be true, and it does have the whiff of 'outlier' written all over it!

    

I don't think I can recall a chart as yellow/orange/red as this one, throughout my entire 17 years' model watching?

[Guest]

As expected the further north you go the Ops run becomes a bigger & bigger outlier. Just compare Aberdeen vs Bournemouth. (Sorry I don't usually have time to screen grab) Down here the Ops run is all over the place so will ignore gives it really does look like a quirky one. Point to note though quite of the ensembles do have large precip spikes indicating things will likely go bang at some point 

[Frosty.]

Loving all the click bait, shame I don’t have any reactions but anyhoo, looking towards the cusp of the meteorological summer the GEFS 12z mean looks preety good if you’re hoping for fine and warm weather with plenty of Azores influence!

[Methuselah]

Nice to see that the 12Z operational run isn't an outlier; it's on the warm side, aye, but it's not an outlier:

    

    

But it does suggest some rain...

[shaky]

What an ecm at t144 hours!!joins the ukmo with a stronger ridge!!looks really warm as well!!

[Zak M]

Oooo!!

   

[mb018538]

ECM still looking warm/hot and settled by 192. Let’s just assume the GFS is completely wrong. I’d be amazed if ukmo/ecm are both wrong now!

[Zak M]

OOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!

   

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192:

+14s just into the SE now, interesting runs tonight for a number of reasons, will post more later.

edit. Zak beat me to it!

Edited May 13, 2020 by Mike Poole

[shaky]

Get the bbqs ready guys!summer is coming?

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Get the bbqs ready guys!summer is coming?

Remember 2m though (and I’m not referring to temperatures! )

[Zak M]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192:

+14s just into the SE now, interesting runs tonight for a number of reasons, will post more later.

edit. Zak beat me to it!

I'm leaving +216 for you